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 Technology Stocks | Sybase (SYBS) - BUY, SELL or HOLD?

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To: Smart Investor who wrote (292)9/23/1996 4:51:00 PM
From: Mark Finger   of 3234
 
I have said that I expect a short term rise in Sybase stock, possibly into the mid-30's, during the next 6-9 months. However, I am betting over the long haul (next 2 years) that the underlying technical problems will catch up to them (just like it did Ingres), and that there will be a significant long term problem. I plan to buy Jan 98 options during the first half of next year.

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To: Smart Investor who wrote (292)9/23/1996 6:31:00 PM
From: Mark The Trader   of 3234
 
Hey smart guy I think you mean times sales not times earnings, you know there is a big difference. As for your "real investor" comment,
do you really think you fall into that category??
Both Mark and Steve ( the person who I think you wanted to post this to ) have made some logical valuable contributions to this thread, not that agree with everything they have said , but they do know what they are talking about.

Mark

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To: Smart Investor who wrote (292)9/23/1996 7:25:00 PM
From: seth thomas   of 3234
 
Hey Smart Dude:

SYBS is actually selling at about 1.2X annual revenue. ORCL and IFMX are selling at about 3-4X annual revenue. However, it's the growth that is significant. IFMX and ORCL are growing at approximately 30-40%. Sybase is flat. IFMX and ORCL have significant profits and are forecast to be more profitable. SYBS ain't. There's no articulated strategy from SYBS for their long term direction - nothing exciting or new that customers can get their hands around. It's mostly more of the same. ORCL and IFMX have dramatic exciting paths. I learned from my years in the business that customers want to see a stated direction, to see a vision. I couldn't tell you what the SYBS vision is.

BTW, real investors gather as many data points as possible, including those of the TV pro, and then determine what to distill and/or integrate with other data points, and make decisions.

When IFMX went from 33 to 17 some months ago, I thought there was no good reason for it. As we have seen, it has climbed back, and should continue to climb. SYBS is at 16 for a good reason - because there's no reason for it to be higher. It is a turnaround situation and it won't be easy. SYBS will be the NOVL of the DBMS world.

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To: seth thomas who wrote (298)9/24/1996
From: rajesh   of 3234
 
Steve, lets invest a fictitious $100,000 in SYBS (my pick) and ORCL (your pick). Whoever has a higher net value at that time wins $100 cash from the other.

What do you think?

Rajesh Agarwal.

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To: seth thomas who wrote (298)9/24/1996 10:19:00 AM
From: Mark Finger   of 3234
 
One point to really watch is the slipping dates for new releases. When System 11 was announced last year, the dates were Q4 95 for 11.0, Q2 96 for 11.1 (parallel query, ...), and Q4 96 for 11.2 (row locking, needed by SAP). These were very aggressive dates, and the question on aggressive dates is whether they will be met, and at what price. The 11.0 date was met, but there was a recent major bug reported (corrupted tables) that will be fixed by an 11.02 release this month.

However, the other likely problem is slipping dates. What are the new dates for these releases? A small slip may be acceptable, to ensure the last bug is out, but now 11.1 has slipped 3 months and Sybase seems very quiet about the revised dates. Hardly the stuff to reassure customers.

I am not meaning to point out problems in Sybase alone. My own company has just as aggressive a release schedule for its Universal Server. The same criteria need to be applied to it. Meeting the schedule and the quality of the product (bug-free and high performance) must be the criteria there also.

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To: rajesh who wrote (299)9/24/1996 10:40:00 AM
From: seth thomas   of 3234
 
Actually, my pick is IFMX, not ORCL. And, I don't have a fictitious $100K in IFMX. It's real. SO, if I'm right, that $100 is nothing. And, if I'm wrong, that $100 won't seem like much, either. So, fine by me.


Let's use the lasted trade at the price listed at close of business on Sept 23, 1996 for each stock as reported in the NY Times. SYBS is 16 1/4. IFMX is 28 1/8. IS this a one year contest? so, we use the price on the close of business on Sept 23, 1997? Is that right? And we are looking at percentage gain?

Please send me some e-mail off line so I know where you are, and a telephone number. Sounds fun.

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To: Mark Finger who wrote (300)9/24/1996 10:43:00 AM
From: seth thomas   of 3234
 
Mark, I believe I saw an article stating that Universal Server was about 2 weeks away from beta. Did I recall that correctly, and from your perspective, is that realistic?

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To: Mark The Trader who wrote (283)9/24/1996 11:03:00 AM
From: Bryan Steffen   of 3234
 
GREAT MOVIE!!!!

Larry the Liquidator is right. "Amen...Amen...Amen. That's what we say at the end of someones funeral. And this company has died. I didn't kill. It was already dead when I got here."

That movie touches on just about every M&A topic there is. SYBS is a dog! dump it and get out while you can!

Bry

BUY LOW, SELL HIGH

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To: seth thomas who wrote (301)9/24/1996 11:26:00 AM
From: rajesh   of 3234
 
Steve, basically it is sheer percentage gain. Good reply. I am up for the bet. I will send you a email sometime by the end of this week.

(BTW, you are right about $100 being nothing...It is the fun value behind it).

Rajesh Agarwal.

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To: seth thomas who wrote (302)9/24/1996 11:57:00 AM
From: Mark Finger   of 3234
 
No comment. I am too far inside to make any such comments. Therefore, I will only refer to public noted details and make obvious comparisons. If you look at my previous post, I just make a comparison because both companies have aggressive schedules. I am not (and don't dare) make any comment on how close to schedule the actual dates are. I am sure that details will be published shortly indicating whether it was shipped (or maybe the lack of notice, which could be an equivalent strong indicator). Again, it is interesting to make the comparisons. Another equal comparison would be Oracle 8, which was first announced in 1992 and supposed to ship in 1994 (according to a document I read yesterday). Only now is that product in beta.

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