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To: batman10023 who wrote (2396)4/30/2012 3:14:15 PM
From: Flipper20582 Recommendations   of 3144
 
Re: i am not picking the bottom here, just pretty sure it wont be the

If the 1990's on oil is any guide the lowest cost producers will continue to produce until they are not profitble. The US producers were in the $15 range while Saudi and other well under $10 just kept pumping oil because they needed the cash. Lease and debt payments don't stop becuase costs are low, certainly. When it hit $8/brl, only 2-3 countries in the World could make money and the World was littered with bankruptcies. Why should NG be any different?

So you have to assume any rally for sometime will be pounced on by cash starved NG producers. It is what we would all do.

There secular moves take years to filter out I feel. Until high cost guys are truly out of the picture, not waiting to produce.

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From: kollmhn4/30/2012 4:38:38 PM
1 Recommendation   of 3144
 


Endeavour Announces First Production at the Bacchus Development

HOUSTON, April 30, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Endeavour International Corporation (NYSE: END) (LSE: ENDV) today announced production from the first development well on the Bacchus Field located in Block 22/06a in the U.K. Central North Sea.

Initial production rates over the first five days were approximately 6,000 gross barrels of oil per day. Endeavour has a 30% interest in Bacchus. When the full field development is completed and on-line, the Company will be able to provide reliable long-term sustainable production estimates. Further detail regarding the initial production performance for this first well will be discussed during the Company's first quarter conference call.

"We are very pleased with the well performance from our first development well at Bacchus," said William L. Transier, chairman, chief executive officer and president. "We are now focused on the second of the development wells and we look forward to having the full development program completed as the year progresses."

The second development well commenced drilling on April 20, 2012. It is expected that this well will be on production early in the third quarter.

The Bacchus development is operated by Apache Corporation. The Field Development Plan was approved by the Department of Energy and Climate Change inJune 2010.





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To: DoggyDogWorld who wrote (2406)4/30/2012 4:39:39 PM
From: Covenant1 Recommendation   of 3144
 
Re: from zero hedge and the Economic Policy Journal:

The easy money policies of the late '60s and early '70s delivered pretty low valuations.

This is when I first started following the markets. Single digit PEs and high single digit dividends were quite common. Bonds were mostly double digit, at least the ones I followed.

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To: Covenant who wrote (2356)4/30/2012 5:11:49 PM
From: Covenant   of 3144
 
Re: Two Buck Chuck continues short covering rally

intelligencepress.com 

Trade DateDelivery Start DateDelivery End DateHighLowWtd Avg IndexVolume (mmBtu)
Apr 30, 2012May 1, 2012May 1, 2012$2.1425$2.0775$2.0961639,700
Apr 27, 2012Apr 28, 2012Apr 30, 2012$2.1000$1.9600$2.0450787,600
Apr 26, 2012Apr 27, 2012Apr 27, 2012$2.1450$2.0200$2.1019793,200
Apr 25, 2012Apr 26, 2012Apr 26, 2012$2.0300$1.9650$1.9935889,600
Apr 24, 2012Apr 25, 2012Apr 25, 2012$2.0100$1.9500$1.9739661,200
Apr 23, 2012Apr 24, 2012Apr 24, 2012$1.9775$1.8625$1.8873781,600
Apr 20, 2012Apr 21, 2012Apr 23, 2012$1.9050$1.7975$1.8198879,200
Apr 19, 2012Apr 20, 2012Apr 20, 2012$1.8675$1.7950$1.8523754,700
Apr 18, 2012Apr 19, 2012Apr 19, 2012$1.8875$1.8300$1.8650639,200
Apr 17, 2012Apr 18, 2012Apr 18, 2012$1.9050$1.8550$1.8897685,200
Apr 16, 2012Apr 17, 2012Apr 17, 2012$1.9050$1.8650$1.8792833,700
Apr 13, 2012Apr 14, 2012Apr 16, 2012$1.9250$1.8300$1.86621,101,400
Apr 12, 2012Apr 13, 2012Apr 13, 2012$1.9200$1.8550$1.87331,124,600
Apr 11, 2012Apr 12, 2012Apr 12, 2012$1.9400$1.8800$1.90851,132,800
Apr 10, 2012Apr 11, 2012Apr 11, 2012$2.0250$1.9400$1.98671,049,600
Apr 9, 2012Apr 10, 2012Apr 10, 2012$2.0100$1.9400$1.99321,010,000
Apr 5, 2012Apr 6, 2012Apr 9, 2012$2.0075$1.9525$1.98021,071,400
Apr 4, 2012Apr 5, 2012Apr 5, 2012$2.0775$2.0400$2.05901,481,300
Apr 3, 2012Apr 4, 2012Apr 4, 2012$2.1000$1.8700$1.94412,013,200
Apr 2, 2012Apr 3, 2012Apr 3, 2012$1.9800$1.8300$1.88261,588,200
Mar 30, 2012Apr 1, 2012Apr 2, 2012$2.0675$1.8500$2.00441,225,300
Mar 29, 2012Mar 30, 2012Mar 31, 2012$2.0775$1.9900$2.0170645,900
Mar 28, 2012Mar 29, 2012Mar 29, 2012$2.0750$1.9975$2.0482851,900
Mar 27, 2012Mar 28, 2012Mar 28, 2012$2.1225$2.0500$2.0933809,700
Mar 26, 2012Mar 27, 2012Mar 27, 2012$2.2100$2.1200$2.1649636,700
Mar 23, 2012Mar 24, 2012Mar 26, 2012$2.1075$2.0475$2.0738996,300
Mar 22, 2012Mar 23, 2012Mar 23, 2012$2.2300$2.0400$2.19421,287,000
Mar 21, 2012Mar 22, 2012Mar 22, 2012$2.2400$2.1300$2.20731,121,700
Mar 20, 2012Mar 21, 2012Mar 21, 2012$2.2050$2.1700$2.19251,039,500
Mar 19, 2012Mar 20, 2012Mar 20, 2012$2.1500$2.1000$2.1362755,300
Mar 16, 2012Mar 17, 2012Mar 19, 2012$2.1500$1.9700$2.01181,015,200
Includes all firm physical fixed price trades done from 7 AM to 11:30 AM Central Prevailing Time on the trade date specified for natural gas delivered on the specified date(s).


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To: Covenant who wrote (2410)4/30/2012 5:18:59 PM
From: Flipper2058   of 3144
 
Re: from zero hedge and the Economic Policy Journal:

Long ago I was told Fidelity Analysts used this basic rule as a main theme to their investing, the rule of 20..... 20 minus the inflation rate gives you a rough P/E. 1982....20 minus 12% inflation or 8 P/E. 2012.... 20 minus 2% or 18 P/E. So we're not over or under valued in general. Inflation drops/ P/E's expand. Pretty basic stuff but fairly effective as a board rule and expectations of inflation.

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To: Flipper2058 who wrote (2412)4/30/2012 5:49:48 PM
From: kollmhn   of 3144
 
Re: from zero hedge and the Economic Policy Journal:

I was impressed by the Rule of 72.

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From: kollmhn4/30/2012 8:32:44 PM
3 Recommendations   of 3144
 

osted at 01:00 PM ET, 04/30/2012EPA official resigns after enforcement philosophy causes furor
By Lisa Rein

A top Environmental Protection Agency official resigned Monday after comments that the agency should make examples of polluters the way Romans crucified people to quash rebellions caused a furor.

In an internal memo to EPA employees, Administrator Lisa P. Jackson said Alfredo Juan “Al” Armendariz had “offered his resignation” as regional administrator for the agency’s South Central region.

“I have accepted Dr. Armendariz’s resignation and respect the fact that he came to this difficult decision because he did not want to distract from our agency’s critical work,” Jackson wrote in the memo, a copy of which was obtained by the Post.




On Friday, Jackson had distanced herself from comments Armendariz made to a Texas community two years ago, calling them a “poor choice of words.” But she stopped short of saying he would resign and declined to say whether he faced disciplinary action.

Congressional Republicans had demanded that Armendariz be firedafter Oklahoma Republican Sen. James M. Inhofe’s staff discovered a YouTube video of the official’s comments in Dish, Texas, and posted a clip on the senator’s Web site. An environmental activist, he joined the Obama administration as a political appointee in 2009.

Armendariz’s remarks came during a 90-minute speech to residents of Dish, a tiny town north of Dallas where concerns over the environmental effects of a method of natural gas drilling called hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, have dominated public debate.

Armendariz is shown in the video answering a question about enforcement of environmental laws. Noting that the analogy was “crude” and “maybe inappropriate,” he said: “It was kind of like how the Romans used to conquer little villages in the Mediterranean. They’d go into a little Turkish town somewhere, they’d find the first five guys they saw, and they would crucify them. And then you know that town was really easy to manage for the next few years.” He then said the same approach could prod companies to obey environmental laws: “You make examples out of people who are not complying with the law.” An audience member posted the speech on YouTube.

Inhofe’s staff came across the video while searching the Internet for an administrative order the EPA withdrew against a Texas company, Range Resources, which the agency had accused of polluting water supplies in Texas.

House Republicans representing the energy heavy South Central region Armendariz oversaw called his philosophy of enforcement “beyond the pale” and a reflection of a “petty, arbitrary and demagogic” environmental agency under President Obama.

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From: pcyhuang4/30/2012 9:38:09 PM
   of 3144
 
Natural Gas -- The Best Performing Commodities Group





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To: pcyhuang who wrote (2415)4/30/2012 9:52:05 PM
From: Covenant   of 3144
 
No volume in pork bellies..





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From: HanaleiAloha5/1/2012 4:50:45 AM
4 Recommendations   of 3144
 


From the WSJ, so funny, so pathetic, so typical, and so reeking with future profits. When the economy tanks and these leveraged pieces of crap fail and go BK, then, my friends, we will truly eat. This is what Fed rates under inflation will do, and for that I thank them. Wait. Patience pays. I just have to wonder if the buyers of "covenant lite" have ever learned anything from the past two years. No, actually I don't wonder, I am just amazed.

Well, here it is:

There's Plenty of Money for Junk

Banks and investors are showering junk-rated companies with easy money, the latest sign that risk-taking is spreading through parts of the financial markets.

Lenders are making more loans with few restrictions on borrowers—known as covenant-lite loans—to riskier companies than they did just a few months ago. Some $11.5 billion of these loans were issued in April, up from $3.6 billion in all of the first quarter, according to Thomson Reuters, making April the busiest for covenant-lite deals since last May.

Meanwhile, more companies are borrowing to pay dividends, and money is flowing for leveraged buyouts. By some measures, access to cash for riskier companies and deals is at levels not seen since the financial crisis.

Enlarge Image

Brett Carlsen for The Wall Street Journal
A worker at Bausch & Lomb, which is seeking a covenant-lite loan.

"It's not yet unduly dangerous, but we're moving in that direction," added Wilbur Ross, who runs buyout firm WL Ross & Co.

Banks and other firms are able to make loans at easy terms because they are finding it easy to sell them to investors. Recently, individual investors and managers of collateralized-loan obligations, as well as traditional buyers of junk bonds, have been especially eager buyers.

"Investors are willing to do that because they are searching for yield in a yieldless environment," said Kevin Sherlock, head of loan and high-yield capital markets at Deutsche Bank DBK.XE -1.88% AG.

Of the all the leveraged loans obtained through April, 23.4% had very low credit ratings of single-B or below—higher than any annual average since 2006, according to Standard & Poor's.

Companies took out $18.5 billion in loans for dividends and share buybacks in the first quarter, tying the postcrisis record set in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Behind the shift: Lenders and investors, betting that default rates stay low and seeking to boost returns amid low interest rates, are looking for extra gains that can come from riskier investments.

Enlarge Image

The same hunger for returns helped propel the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its seventh month of gains in April, the longest streak in five years. Junk-bond sales hit a record in the first quarter, and investors again are clamoring to get in on hot initial public offerings. It is all good news for companies and private-equity firms. But some experts are surprised by the burst of loose lending, which could haunt lenders if the economy weakens.

"These are small steps toward less-disciplined capital markets," said Howard Marks, chairman of Los Angeles-based Oaktree Capital Group LLC, a debt-focused investment firm. He wouldn't say if Oaktree is avoiding these loans.

One of the most telling signs is the burst of covenant-lite loans, which come without usual terms aimed at protecting lenders, such as limits on how much debt a borrower can have relative to earnings.

After the financial crisis, covenant-lite loans were widely derided as a symbol of market excesses. In 2008, covenant-lite loans rated single-B lost 37% of their value, compared with a 27% loss for traditional loans.

Contact-lens maker Bausch & Lomb Inc., whose debt is rated B-plus by S&P, is asking investors for a $3.45 billion covenant-lite loan. The loan would pay for a $500 million acquisition and refinance existing debt that has higher rates and financial covenants. In return, investors would get a slightly higher interest rate than for a standard loan.

A Bausch & Lomb spokesman said the refinancing will "provide us with financial flexibility."

Discounter 99 Cents Only Stores and toy retailer Toys "R" Us Inc., both junk-rated, also recently obtained covenant-lite loans.

One loan that investors say likely wouldn't have been possible just a few months ago: Hotelier Sam Nazarian is borrowing $300 million to finance the reconstruction of the Sahara casino hotel in Las Vegas he initially planned in 2007. While this loan does include covenants, the project is seen as risky because it will compete against larger casino firms in a weak market.

The activity is reminiscent of a spurt seen in early 2010 and early 2011, when signs of economic recovery enticed investors back to riskier assets. Both times, the enthusiasm was snuffed out by troubles in the global economy. A similar pattern could follow this year, some investors say.

For now, it makes sense that lending is becoming easier, given the improving economy, said Mario Giannini, chief executive officer of Hamilton Lane Advisors LLC, a private-equity investor. But covenant-lite loans are "worrisome because they marked the top of the last cycle," he said.

Forty-four per cent of loan deals in April have been covenant-lite, according to Thomson Reuters. That percentage is growing, said Leland Hart, a portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc., BLK -0.48% which has been buying some of these loans.

He and other investors said these deals are safer that those a few years ago, partly because companies are borrowing less money. And borrowers are healthier, he said.

"Covenant-lite today is a reward for being a good corporate citizen," Mr. Hart said.

He added that investors snubbed some proposed deals that "pushed the envelope."

Riskier corporations and leveraged-buyout firms are also taking advantage of frothy debt markets to raise cash for stock dividends and buybacks. Companies borrowed $18 billion to pay dividends or repurchase stock in the first quarter, compared with $3 billion in the entire second half of 2011, according to S&P. Floating debt to pay dividends can benefit shareholders, but it adds debt, increasing lender risks. One example: Harbor Freight Tools, a tool retailer, is raising $1.4 billion to pay for a $600 million dividend. The loan is covenant-lite and rated single-B, on the lower end of the junk-credit spectrum.

Meanwhile, more bankers are promising "staple financing," or money to help a buyer bid for companies. Mr. Marks said he is also starting to see more "drive-by deals," or quick financing provided by investors who haven't had much of a chance to do due diligence.

"We are willing to sign deals," said David Miller, head of global leveraged finance at Credit Suisse Group CS -2.16% AG. "I've seen no slowdown in banks' desire to underwrite deals at acceptable terms."

Buyout firms and others making acquisitions said terms are getting better. But the pace of leveraged buyouts has actually declined amid this easy money, as bidders drive prices higher.

"I'm sorry to say, the loan environment is robust, there's a lot of credit available," Tony James, president of Blackstone Group, said last week on a conference call. "That means [private-equity buyers] have to pay more" for buyouts.

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