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To: KyrosL who wrote (2019)	4/17/2012 11:54:39 AM
From: xxyy	of 3144

Re: Sell in May and Go Away I may be missing something, but I don't think either of your solutions addresses the issue. If you short the SPY for 6 months of the year, you're paying the dividends from the long position to the short position, and you're also incurring taxes on the short position that you are shorting/buy-back every 6 months. Those taxes would come out of your long position, and the tax rules for shorting against the box try to ensure you don't get a gain by doing this. net-net I think it's exactly the same as the first, except with more complications, commissions, etc. And batman, you're comparing an options position to a plain index ETF. I don't see how that gets out of LTCGs, it drops all your dividends, you pay some time premium and it's liable to have higher commissions too. It may turn out to be a win, but that'd be because it's hidden leverage.

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To: batman10023 who wrote (2022)	4/17/2012 12:56:46 PM
From: XoFruitCake	3 Recommendations of 3144

Re: Sell in May and Go Away I think it is a generic question but need a specific answer. This year summer is going to be pretty interesting. We have high oil price, Europe ongoing recession, China trying to reboot the economy while they are trying to transition their leadership (and the recent removal of Bo Xilai and the dirty laundry air out so far highlited the internal ideology struggle within China. They can end up cleansing the party and "destroy" their economy temporary if the problem spead out any further.). And let's not forget how well Clinton/Obama team handle Israel and Turkey may play a role in this year stock market derby. If Israel cannot go over Iraqi, they would have to go over Turkey to strike Iran.. And Turkey is pretty pissed about Iran as well.. So if Obama is not careful and get too crazy in the left wing re-election politic, Israel may conclude that Obama will never support a strike in Iran and their survival is going to be in jeopardy. And we will have a ME war on our hand. there are enough of these tail end risk this year that when we add them together, may not be too easy to just write them all off as not consequential. At best I think we have same mo, same mo economic backdrop with subpar recovery, and end the year the same way we start it i.e. we have 9+% to drop on SPY. At worst we can easily see a lot worse economic condition if one of these not so market friendly scenario play out. It seems to be an awefully hard back drop to rely on the economy to pull our stock up. Special situation is the way to go... Right now I have 20+% BAC/C/WFC/JPM that are up a whopping 2%, 45% income (muni etf stuff include) and 30% cash. I am seriously contemplating just sell everything and upping the income part to 60-70% and call it a summer unless something really tempting special situation come along.....

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To: monad who wrote (2012)

4/17/2012 1:18:14 PM

From: monad

1 Recommendation of 3144

Re: Sell in May and Go Away

Re: Sell in May and Go Away

Sorry to report after the discussion so far but there were a couple of mistakes in my initial post on the subject. The two mistakes, which I have corrected here:

The first 3 rows of the table were through an end date of 4/23/2009 (instead of 4/13/2012)
The last row of the table was run against the S&P 500 index (as the chart showed) not SPY

Don't know what explains the fairly large difference (27% vs. 33%) in the profit shown in the last row of the two tables without looking further. Possibly due to the difference in the Open price for the index vs. SPY as reported by Yahoo (my data source).

Here are some results of testing this simple system against SPY through 4/13//2012, ignoring taxes, dividends, and commissions:

	Total Trades	Winning Trades	Losing Trades	Percent Profit	Buy and Hold
since 1/29/1993	20	16	4	333	212
since 1/01/2000	13	10	3	69	-4
since 10/10/2002	11	8	3	70	19
since 1/01/2008	5	3	2	33	-5

Options used: 1 day delay, buy and sell at open. No commission charged. Test end date of 4/13/2012.

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To: batman10023 who wrote (1985)

4/17/2012 6:44:14 PM

From: Covenant

of 3144

Re: One Buck Chuck trades in tight range

intelligencepress.com

Trade DateDelivery Start DateDelivery End DateHighLowWtd Avg IndexVolume (mmBtu)

Apr 17, 2012	Apr 18, 2012	Apr 18, 2012	$1.9050	$1.8550	$1.8897	685,200
Apr 16, 2012	Apr 17, 2012	Apr 17, 2012	$1.9050	$1.8650	$1.8792	833,700
Apr 13, 2012	Apr 14, 2012	Apr 16, 2012	$1.9250	$1.8300	$1.8662	1,101,400
Apr 12, 2012	Apr 13, 2012	Apr 13, 2012	$1.9200	$1.8550	$1.8733	1,124,600
Apr 11, 2012	Apr 12, 2012	Apr 12, 2012	$1.9400	$1.8800	$1.9085	1,132,800
Apr 10, 2012	Apr 11, 2012	Apr 11, 2012	$2.0250	$1.9400	$1.9867	1,049,600
Apr 9, 2012	Apr 10, 2012	Apr 10, 2012	$2.0100	$1.9400	$1.9932	1,010,000
Apr 5, 2012	Apr 6, 2012	Apr 9, 2012	$2.0075	$1.9525	$1.9802	1,071,400
Apr 4, 2012	Apr 5, 2012	Apr 5, 2012	$2.0775	$2.0400	$2.0590	1,481,300
Apr 3, 2012	Apr 4, 2012	Apr 4, 2012	$2.1000	$1.8700	$1.9441	2,013,200
Apr 2, 2012	Apr 3, 2012	Apr 3, 2012	$1.9800	$1.8300	$1.8826	1,588,200
Mar 30, 2012	Apr 1, 2012	Apr 2, 2012	$2.0675	$1.8500	$2.0044	1,225,300
Mar 29, 2012	Mar 30, 2012	Mar 31, 2012	$2.0775	$1.9900	$2.0170	645,900
Mar 28, 2012	Mar 29, 2012	Mar 29, 2012	$2.0750	$1.9975	$2.0482	851,900
Mar 27, 2012	Mar 28, 2012	Mar 28, 2012	$2.1225	$2.0500	$2.0933	809,700
Mar 26, 2012	Mar 27, 2012	Mar 27, 2012	$2.2100	$2.1200	$2.1649	636,700
Mar 23, 2012	Mar 24, 2012	Mar 26, 2012	$2.1075	$2.0475	$2.0738	996,300
Mar 22, 2012	Mar 23, 2012	Mar 23, 2012	$2.2300	$2.0400	$2.1942	1,287,000
Mar 21, 2012	Mar 22, 2012	Mar 22, 2012	$2.2400	$2.1300	$2.2073	1,121,700
Mar 20, 2012	Mar 21, 2012	Mar 21, 2012	$2.2050	$2.1700	$2.1925	1,039,500
Mar 19, 2012	Mar 20, 2012	Mar 20, 2012	$2.1500	$2.1000	$2.1362	755,300
Mar 16, 2012	Mar 17, 2012	Mar 19, 2012	$2.1500	$1.9700	$2.0118	1,015,200
Mar 15, 2012	Mar 16, 2012	Mar 16, 2012	$2.1200	$2.0300	$2.0748	942,600
Mar 14, 2012	Mar 15, 2012	Mar 15, 2012	$2.1750	$2.0600	$2.1310	887,200
Mar 13, 2012	Mar 14, 2012	Mar 14, 2012	$2.1850	$2.1100	$2.1522	1,090,700
Mar 12, 2012	Mar 13, 2012	Mar 13, 2012	$2.2000	$2.1250	$2.1715	759,500
Mar 9, 2012	Mar 10, 2012	Mar 12, 2012	$2.2275	$2.1600	$2.2067	1,201,600
Mar 8, 2012	Mar 9, 2012	Mar 9, 2012	$2.2600	$2.1100	$2.2375	902,300
Mar 7, 2012	Mar 8, 2012	Mar 8, 2012	$2.2550	$2.2100	$2.2444	805,700
Mar 6, 2012	Mar 7, 2012	Mar 7, 2012	$2.3225	$2.2725	$2.2984	880,500
Mar 5, 2012	Mar 6, 2012	Mar 6, 2012	$2.3250	$2.2975	$2.3101	768,600
Includes all firm physical fixed price trades done from 7 AM to 11:30 AM Central Prevailing Time on the trade date specified for natural gas delivered on the specified date(s).

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To: XoFruitCake who wrote (2023)	4/17/2012 7:09:06 PM
From: indigostretch	of 3144

Re: Sell in May and Go Away Spain is the story to watch: Rising Interest Rates Spain Slides Further into Crisis The situation on the financial markets is getting tougher for Spain. The interest rates the country must pay on longer-term, 10-year bonds rose on Monday to over 6 percent for the first time this year. The government in Madrid is also warning that Spain has fallen back into recession. Spain is once again experiencing tremendous pressure from the financial markets. With the economy sliding and Spanish banks no longer able to finance themselves independently, doubts are growing among investors that the country can service its debts without outside help. Some are already speculating that Spain will have to request aid from the European Union's euro rescue fund. On Monday, the interest rate on 10-year government loans rose for the first time this year to over the 6-percent mark, increasing by 0.13 points to 6.12 percent. Investors are demanding increasingly higher risk premiums in order to buy Spanish bonds. The cost for credit loss insurance also rose to a record high. For securities with a five-year term and a face value of $10 million, insurers are demanding an annual premium of $520,000. "We're back in full crisis mode," Rabobank strategist Lyn Graham-Taylor said, according to Reuters. "It is looking more and more likely that Spain is going to have some form of a bailout." For weeks now, markets have been rife with speculation that Spain may have to borrow money from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) in order to shore up its foundering banks. Figures ranging from €50 billion to €100 billion are being bandied about. The Spanish banks are so saddled with a mountain of non-performing real estate loans that few other European banks are willing to continue to lend them money. Instead they must rely on the European Central Bank (ECB) for fresh infusions of cheap money. In March, the banks borrowed a record €316 billion from the ECB -- close to twice the amount borrowed in February. Economy Contracts for Second Quarter in a Row But the question of whether Spain will soon need money from the euro backstop fund in order to finance its national debt is a divisive one. Many experts believe that an interest rate that is greater than 6 percent for 10-year bonds is unsustainable in the long run. But others have noted that, prior to the introduction of the euro, the country had been forced to pay significantly higher interest rates in some cases. Still, 6 percent is considered psychologically important because once interest rates got that high in other countries in the euro crisis, the pace at which it continued to rise accelerated. Once interest levels hit 7 percent in Greece, Ireland and Portugal, those countries were all forced to seek assistance from the bailout fund because they were no longer able to find enough private investors. In addition to its banking industry troubles, Spain is suffering an economic downturn. The government admitted on Monday that the country had probably fallen into its second recession since 2009. The economy shrank by 0.3 percent during the final quarter of 2011. "At the moment, I see a first quarter with a similar pattern to the last quarter of last year," Spanish Economics Minister Luis de Guindos told the country's El Mundo newspaper on Monday. But he also added: "If you had asked me two months ago, I would have expected the first quarter of 2012 to be much worse than the last quarter of last year. But that's not going to be the case. " In order to spur the economy, Guindos said the government wants to provide better access to loans for small- to medium-sized companies through new measures to be introduced in the next few weeks. The economics minister said Madrid would seek to promote the market for business loans in ways that would make it very attractive for such firms. Guindos said these companies had recently had difficulties refinancing themselves, with bank lending falling by about 4 percent -- a reflection of how the banks' financing problems are being passed on to other sectors.

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