SI
SI
discoversearch

 Strategies & Market Trends | The Aristocrats (tm)


Previous 10 | Next 10 
From: sense2/10/2012 11:50:35 PM
   of 513
 
A Two Page Must Read from Marketwatch: "Dennis Gartman is ‘wild-eyed bullish’ on stocks"

Feb. 10, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EST
Dennis Gartman is ‘wild-eyed bullish’ on stocks
Commentary: He’s also returning to gold after exiting in 2011

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)


To: sense who wrote (33)2/11/2012 8:18:50 AM
From: Ultralord
   of 513
 
And two days earlier from a TA perspective you have Yamada declaring the Nasdaq as entered a bull market.

bloomberg.com

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)


To: Ultralord who wrote (34)2/11/2012 10:50:31 PM
From: sense
   of 513
 
Funny, isn't it, how good they are at identifying those things... some months after they begin ?

I've been dragged into considering it on other stock specific boards...

But, it is probably worth a mention here... that NASDAQ the stock... is having it's butt handed to it by the competition...

Check out NDAQ vs. OTCM... and note the serious erosion occurring now as lower tier NASDAQ stocks continue to abandon NASDAQ in droves, moving to the OTCQX...

I thought at first it was all being driven by tough markets, lack of capital, and difficultly meeting the listing requirements being an issue in the long economic malaise we're in... but, that isn't it... A number of companies are being forced off the NASDAQ by problems... that in the past wouldn't have been forced off. And, a growing number are moving by choice, even without the NASDAQ listing being at risk...


Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)


To: sense who wrote (35)2/12/2012 12:03:31 AM
From: Ultralord
   of 513
 
As I was reading that I was thinking to myself that they must be leaving due to not meeting the requirements due to the overall environment. I thought that the big boards were relaxing some of their requirements during these times so I was surprised to hear you say some are being forced off when in the past thy wouldn't have been. As for the ones leaving that are not falling bellow the requirements what are your feelings on their reasons?

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)


To: Ultralord who wrote (36)2/12/2012 12:28:57 AM
From: sense
   of 513
 
I think the issue with timing is that the larger exchanges did extend their time lines given the economic conditions, but, they didn't forecast things would stay as bad as they have as long as they have, and given bureaucratic inertia, the markets are simply failing to come to grips with the economic reality their companies are facing, and, in particular, the reality that the listing is not actually helping the companies in raising the capital they require.

The erosion is occurring from the bottom up... but, it isn't occurring only as a function of failures forcing the decision. So, it looks to me like OTCQX is succeeding in making serious inroads in NASDAQ's rep... as the QX is now becoming accepted as "nearly as legitimate as NASDAQ" given the veneer in the requirements are similar.

Beyond that... it is clear that three key factors are driving it...

One is that the cost is lower... and lower tier company's are pinching pennies. If the hit to the rep the move entails isn't that bad, saving on the cost may be worth it. And, the hit to the rep appears it is minimized by making the move early enough that it is truly seen as a voluntary move, and not one driven by risk or threat or after the fact of a failure. It's like making the choice of going to an easy school and getting good grades majoring in Psych instead of waiting until you're flunking out of your nanoscience/MBA double major at MIT.

Second is that the QX level of oversight is less onerous... so, both a cost issue and time issue in compliance, but also an issue of just finding it useful to avoid the higher level of oversight...

Third is that the move DOES make additional capital available, that wasn't available to the lower tier companies before they made the move. There is a COST issue inherent in the availability, still, but, between cost and availability, availability wins.

Related to the last two... the lowered standards also make it easier for company managements to "carve out a little more for themselves" while accepting lesser quality financing. It shouldn't be too surprising that it appears that management throwing shareholders under the convertible note bus in return for a promise of a bigger paycheck seems it is a motive in some... including one of those that was a chart pick that got me started looking at this... BNVI...

CPY delisting and now trading as CPIC is another... that doesn't yet appear to have the financing problems.
TBUS at a bottom after making the move... looks ready to move higher...

OTCM posts news of accessions only when they begin trading... so, you can look at OTCM on Yahoo Finance and see the recent news on each of them easily enough. They take the big hit when the put out the news... so, there is probably a pattern trade to work between the announcement and when they begin trading on the new listing... but I've not figured it out yet... and have enough irons in the fire now that it might take a bit of time before I get to that...











Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)


To: sense who wrote (37)2/12/2012 12:39:46 AM
From: sense
   of 513
 
I could go on a rant from there, about how convertible note financing is destroying the markets and the country, and how it amounts to a scheme for enabling illegal share registration, etc., but will save that for later... while noting that the purposes of Sarbanes Oxley included imposition of exactly those sorts of "gate keeping" functions that make capital more costly for small companies and profit margins for "banks" fatter at everyone else's expense.

There are easy solutions to America's economic malaise... and they begin with recognizing what the banks have done wrong to benefit themselves... that is destructive of free market opportunity for everyone else...


Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read


From: sense2/16/2012 5:46:16 AM
   of 513
 
Not exactly "news" by now, but, this time, it appears Greece is going to fail.
This time, Europe is ready, and they are more likely to be smug about it, rather than panic.

See the article: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Probably is time to be thinking about what happens when Greece returns to the drachma.

They should have done it a long time ago, of course, rather than allow Germany and the banks to force them into a deflationary spiral, as they have... and, of course, they never should have taken on the debt.

Greece's problems with deflation under the Euro will rapidly become "crisis" in devaluation/revaluation in transition, at a point in time when no one trusts them, and then accelerating inflation in response to their inability to constrain spending, which will only be worse without the externally imposed discipline of the Eurozone.

Greek stocks will likely be brutalized, but stability may not take long to return, given the Greek people are likely to celebrate the result just as if they were being liberated from the Nazi's in WWII.

Picks ? Maybe will find a few this week.

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read


From: sense2/19/2012 9:54:37 PM
   of 513
 
Europe blows it... again...

The Fed/IMF had found an enough of an end around the Europeans self destructive (even masochistically authoritarian) financial machinations... sufficient that it would enable at least a few months interlude, during which time they could begin to "fix" what they'd already broken, while they stepped back from their prior errors, hopefully with a more sober appreciation. Germany even seemed to be "getting it". But, instead of fixing it, now they've opted to go stupid and break it even more dramatically, and fundamentally.

I've been pointing out privately for a considerably longer time, and since 2008, at least, publicly, that Europe's institutional proclivities would have it surrender the proper basic design of its structures to those proclivities, in lieu of fundamental legitimacy. That led me to predict that it was inevitable that Europe's bureaucrats would ensure that its institutions would fail in a crisis of legitimacy. The fundamental illegitimacy of their institutions... and the apparently natural knee jerk inclinations of their bureaucrats to not care about legitimacy... would necessarily lead to exactly the sort of stupidity that is now unavoidably apparent to everyone, including those who had believed, along with those who merely hoped, that I'd be proven wrong.

The ECB Has Opened Pandora’s Box


It will be useful to note this as a second major step in the wrong direction, following the first, previous addressed here, as the Europeans began to dramatically politicize their financial conflicts...

It seems likely to me that this will lead unavoidably to additional "accelerations" in recognition events... a quickening in the pace... although, it is still impossible to tell if this is the straw that will break the camels back, or, even if it is, when it should be that you can expect to see the camel collapse...

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1)


To: sense who wrote (40)2/20/2012 12:17:06 AM
From: sense
   of 513
 
The inevitable consequences when there is full realization of what the Europeans have done ?

The Euro should be made worth less... again.
The Dollar should be made worth more... again.
Oil prices already rising due to Iran's disputes with Europe should rise further, in Europe.
Demand for debt with its integrity fully intact should increase... bond prices up, rates lower in the U.S.

The combination of effects is likely to nudge Europe that much closer to accelerating into a deflationary spiral.
Inflation is a piecemeal abrogation of obligations which abrogation Europe has now embraced wholesale... with a choice vastly worse than an excess in tolerance of a bit too much inflation. Oddly, the impact may include a relative reduction in tensions vis a vis Greece, although the timing may mean that there is little that matters to be made of it.

I'd expect an creeping acceleration along the path toward the dissolution of Europe, with the moves made eliminating many of the distinctions that have been being made based on level of indebtedness. What is the difference between Greece and Germany, when none of Europe's promises are worth any more than Greece's promises have been ?

I don't see the news doing much damage to my prior picks:

ARR and the other mortgage reits should not suffer disproportionately as long as the issue doesn't ignite any wider bout of financial "contagion"... but, there may be a need for greater vigilence in that regard, again.

European banks should be punished disproportionately. Europe seems to be thinking they're strong enough to manage Greece leaving the monetary union... but, it doesn't appear they were planning on unintended consequences from errors in things they've undertaken blindly.

I still think oil and gas royalty payers are going to prove timely this year... and this should do nothing to diminish them.

Will think about it a bit more in the coming week.



Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read


From: sense2/20/2012 9:43:43 PM
   of 513
 

Share Recommend | Keep | Reply | Mark as Last Read
Previous 10 | Next 10 

Copyright © 1995-2014 Knight Sac Media. All rights reserved.Stock quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes - See Terms of Use.