Technology StocksRenren

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From: zax12/6/2011 7:40:29 PM
2 Recommendations   of 310
6 Internet Stocks Poised To Surge In January
December 6, 2011


Renren, Inc. ( RENN) is trading at $3.70. Renren is a social networking company in China. Many call it the "Facebook" of China. The 52 week high is $24, so this stock has been beaten-down at the end of 2011. RENN has a market capitalization of about $1.44 billion and a enterprise value of about $231 million due to the cash on the balance sheet of roughly $1.2 billion. The cash on the balance sheet of about $1.2 billion is equivalent to around $3.05 per share, so the stock is trading just barely over cash value. Reports have put the value of Facebook at around $75 to $100 billion, and that makes buying RENN with a enterprise value of about $231 million a real bargain. The largest social networking site in China (the most populous nation in the world) has to be worth more than 1% of Facebook, and this stock should see a boost when Facebook goes public. With this stock trading at less than 1/6th of the 52 week high, I believe this stock is seeing serious levels of tax-loss selling, which should be followed by a big January rebound.


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To: zax who wrote (190)12/19/2011 11:11:19 AM
From: Brasco One
   of 310
this pig should have never been brought public.

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To: Brasco One who wrote (191)12/19/2011 6:27:35 PM
From: zax
3 Recommendations   of 310
Trading at $3.30 and holding $3.11 in cash on the books - one gotta wonder if its possible for a stock to be any more beat down than this.

IMO, facebook IPO will do wonders for Renren.

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From: zax1/27/2012 4:05:25 PM
   of 310
To the moon, Alice.

January 27, 2012, 2:14 PM ET
Facebook IPO at $100B Val Could Come Wednesday, Says WSJ
By Tiernan Ray

The Wall Street Journal’s Shayndi Raice and Randall Smith this afternoon report that Facebook may file for an initial public offering as soon as next Wednesday, valuing the company in a range of $75 billion to $100 billion, citing multiple anonymous sources.

The news comes two days after reports that private trading in shares of Facebook were being suspended.

A source I spoke with earlier this week with one investor owns private shares of Facebook opined that the valuation will likely be in the $40 range, above recent private trades at around $30. That would push the valuation toward the upper end of the range Raice and Smith are discussing. Indeed this source opined that the valuation out of the chute would probably be around $100 billion.

I would note that SharesPost of late has displayed recent transactions for Facebook at a price of $34, and states that the implied market value is $80 billion.

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To: zax who wrote (192)1/30/2012 2:42:21 PM
From: Brasco One
   of 310
nice double from its bottom.

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To: ChinuSFO who wrote (35)2/2/2012 1:53:46 PM
From: zax
   of 310
Renren: Social Networking Top Pick; Initiating With $6 Target

I initiate coverage on Renren ( RENN) with Equal weight rating and a DCF-based priced target of $6.

Investment Thesis

  • China's largest real-name social networking service site with first-mover advantage, broad product offering and superior user experience that translate to strong brand equity and network effect
  • Biggest beneficiary of social network advertising, acting as a "one-stop-shop" that features sponsored stories, demographic-driven display ads and corporate fan-sites
  • Location-based-services (LBS) and group-buying to drive further growth as Renren enters the untapped market of mobile social network advertising
  • Valuation: Renren is currently valued at 15x EV/revenue, on par with its closest SNS peer LinkedIn ( LNKD).
  • Recommendation: I initiate coverage on Renren with an equal weight rating and a DCF-based price target of $6, which values it at 6x 2012e EV/revenue. The key risks include: (1) regulatory risks; (2) slowdown of Chinese economy; (3) competition from microblogs; (4) rising cost of Nuomi.
  • Why not Overweight: Since Wall Street Journal reported Facebook's $10 billion IPO that would value the firm at $100 billion, Renren's shares have jumped over 40% the past three days. I feel that Renren's valuation has gone ahead of itself and the stock could take a breather in the near-medium term.
Business Model

Renren generates revenue from online advertising, online games, other internet-value-added-services (IVAS) and Nuomi.

Online advertising include display ads, promotions, in-game advertising and fan-pages. Some of Renren's top advertising clients include Coca-Cola ( KO), Adidas (ADDDY.PK), HP ( HPQ), Nokia ( NOK), Motorola ( MMI) and McDonald's ( MCD).

Online games include in-house developed, licensed and third-party developed social games. Currently, Renren has over 400 in-house developed and license games ranging from action shooters for the serious gamers to role-play for casual gamers, and over 900 games from third-party developers.

click to enlarge

Other IVAS revenue consists of the sale of virtual items and paid accounts that grant users additional features, such as larger friend lists, bigger photo albums, free MP3 streaming and customized profile pages.

Finally, Nuomi is Renren's group-buying service that was launched in June 2010 and operates in similar fashion to Groupon (GRPM). The unit is one of the top 10 group-buying sites and advertises local deals in 60 cities across China.

Investment Highlights

The leading real-name SNS platform in China. is China's largest "real-name" social networking site. The company operates in similar fashion to Facebook ( FB) in which users can set up their own profiles, post updates, upload pictures and send messages to other users in their network.

Renren's competitive advantage lies in its first-mover advantage and superior user experience and value propositions that resulted in strong network effect.

Established in Tsinghua University one year after the founding of Facebook, Renren became the first real-name SNS platform in China and immediately gained popularity among college students as its real-name feature met their need of keeping touch and communicate with close friends over the internet.

Aside from traditional SNS offerings of user profiles, messaging, photos and updates, Renren quickly expanded its product offerings which include online social games, e-commerce, third-party apps and online videos. The broad products and services improved user experience and stickiness, and expanded its presence among the Chinese universities and young urban professional communities.

Because Renren's real-name platform allows users to search for friends, build an extensive contact database and meet their social networking needs, Renren experienced tremendous growth in total activated users over the past five years. From 2007 to the end of 3Q11, Renren's total activated user base grew from 30 million to over 137 million. Over the past year, Renren has been adding 2.8 million users per month. Assuming a conservative 2 million per month net additions, Renren's total activated user base could reach 400 million+ by 2022.

Renren's large user base, strong brand equity, and innovative products and services allow the company to establish presence in other social networking verticals. In addition to its flagship real-name SNS platform, Renren also operates, a professional social networking site similar to LinkedIn, and, a car enthusiast social networking site.

Currently, both sites are still under beta testing. However, I believe that they will be highly successful once operational because:

  1. Renren users can access both platforms using their Renren log-in and consolidate multiple platforms (eg. social, professional, and interests) that result in low switching cost and better user experience.
  2. Jingwei will likely become the preferred professional networking platform over LinkedIn due to established user stickiness of Renren's brand, products and services. The increasing adoption of Jingwei by young urban professionals will result in greater network effect for the platform.
  3. Growing interest of automobiles among Chinese consumers has created thousands of local car clubs where enthusiasts share information on vehicles, insurance, maintenance and related topics. Chewen connects enthusiasts at both the local and the national level as young urban professionals and internet users pursue their aspiration of car ownership.

Jingwei and Chewen will greatly enhance Renren's value proposition and open additional monetization channels for the company.

The "one-stop shop" for social network advertising in China. Social network advertising is gaining significance because it is likely to revolutionize online advertising by leveraging word-of-mouth, which is widely considered the most effective marketing tool. In a 1955 book titled " Personal Influence: The Part Played by People in the Flow of Mass Communication", authors Paul Lazarsfeld and Elihu Katz pointed out that advertisers broadcast their messages to certain individuals, such as opinion leaders, so they can spread the message via word of mouth to their own social networks. Personal influence is an important part of consumers' decision making process, and advertisers seek to capitalize on the social action of internet users to drive future sale.

According to Global Industry Analysts, the social network advertising market is expected to reach $14.8 billion by 2017. While the majority of the growth will be in the US, low internet penetration and minimal adoption of social network advertising in China implies greater upside than the developed markets.

Social network advertising consists of:

  • Sponsored story. This type of advertising involves broadcasting a news feed onto the user's social network profile based on his action. For example, if a user uploads a feed involving Starbucks ( SBUX), then a Starbucks logo would instantly show on the user's profile.
  • Display ads. This involves placing traditional banner and display ads onto an user's profile. Advertisers can utilize the demographic data in the profile page to target consumers more directly, allowing for greater effectiveness of the promotional messages.
  • Fan-sites. This method involves advertisers setting up fan-sites that followers can join. The increased number of "fans" or "followers" allows the advertisers to develop its network effect and promote its products and services.
Of the three social network advertising methods, sponsored ads are considered most effective due to the influence the user has over his network, followed by fan-sites. Pseudonym SNS platforms operated by Tencent ( TCEHY.PK), Sina ( SINA) and Sohu ( SOHU) utilize the first two methods because they are effective in a follower-based environment in which consumers receives an advertising broadcast from a known source, such as a friend or a fan-page. However, display ads on the pseudonym SNS platform are ineffective because user data are either unreliable or nonexistent. For example, Sina's Weibo "certifies" the user's real identity by placing a "Sina Certified" badge in the user's profile page.

Renren's real-name SNS platform can effectively deliver all three social network advertising methods because advertisers can not only set up sponsored ads and fan-pages but also rely on the real user profiles to deliver display and banner ads. The ability to present three, rather than two, options to the advertisers allows Renren to become a one-stop shop for social network advertising. Renren can also establish a tier-pricing mechanism that showcases the different channels to attract the 40 million SMEs that have different advertising budget.

Currently, Renren is building a new advertising system similar to Facebook's Beacon Project, which helps advertisers target consumers by age, education, language, employer, location and interest, and leverage the network effect to broadcast messages. Advertisers can also manage their budget by choosing CPC or CPM, and obtain detailed analysis on their ads in regards to impressions, clicks and demographics on the audience. According to management, the new ad system is currently undergoing beta testing.

As of 3Q11, online advertising accounts for 57% of net revenue. I expect it to account for 70% of net revenue by 2015 as advertisers increasingly adopt SNS to better target consumers and achieve higher effectiveness on their ad budget. We could see the launch of the new ad system in 2H12.

Mobile initiative and group-buying expands market opportunities. As of 3Q11, Renren's mobile penetration reached 13.3 million users, or 35% of its total monthly unique users. Half of the mobile users access Renren through smartphones and I believe this trend is likely to continue as low-end smartphones become increasingly affordable and as feature phone users trade up to low-end smartphones. According to DCCI, mobile internet users in China are expected to outnumber desktop internet users by 2013.

Renren officially entered the mobile social networking market with the introduction of HTC Daren, an Android-based device that incorporates many of Renren's core functions and location-based-service (LBS) features. The device will be selling for Rmb 2,000, which is a cost considerably less than its peers.

HTC Daren will greatly enhance user stickiness for the device features an easy to access menu that allows users to update their social feeds on the main interface. It can also sync contacts with their respective Renren accounts so the address book automatically display status updates. Other features include a 5MP camera and app store.

HTC Daren entered the market well before the Facebook Phone, code named "Buffy", which is also developed by HTC and expected to be launched this year. I believe that this validates Renren's mobile strategy and highlights the forward-thinking nature of management.

Nuomi is also a critical component of Renren's mobile and LBS strategy. According to a CNNIC report published in January 2012, group-buying is the second fastest growing segment in China's internet industry with 64 million users (+245% y/y) but accounts for just a 12.6% penetration rate, implying significant upside.

Nuomi can benefit from HTC Daren's LBS feature as it delivers coupons, discounts and promotions to users whenever they log into their Renren account. It can also deliver group discounts to multiple users when it detects a sufficient number of Renren users are within close proximity to the deal source.

To fully solidify its nationwide coverage, Nuomi partnered with Focus Media ( FMCN) to run promotions and discounts on Focus Media's next generation interactive LCD screens. The new advertising device features a large screen for video ads and three smaller screens for flash ads. Sensors located at the bottom of the smaller screens allow consumers to receive promotion by using Q-cards or near-field-communication features in their mobile device.

Renren's LBS platform currently delivers over 30,000 daily deals and protmotions. With only one year of operational history, Nuomi already ranks as one of the top ten among the 5,000 group-buying sites in China. I expect Nuomi to continue to grab market share from smaller rivals and improve its sector leading 8% conversion rate as it leverages HTC Daren and Focus Media's interactive LCD screens amid industry consolidation.

Experienced Management Team

Joseph Chen, Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer:

  • Co-founder of, China's first-generation SNS
  • Senior vice president of
  • Bachelor of Science from University of Delaware, Masters of Engineering from MIT and MBA from Stanford University.
Hui Huang, Chief Financial Officer:

  • CFO of Cathay Industrial Biotech
  • Executive director at Johnson Electric Capital Limited
  • Bachelor of Science from Shanghai Jiaotong University and MBA from Wharton School at University of Pennsylvania
James Liu, Chief Operating Officer:

  • Co-founder of, one of China's earliest SNS
  • Product management direct at Fortinet ( FTNT)
  • Bachelor of Science from Shanghai Jiaotong University and MBA from Stanford
Alvin Chiang, Chief Marketing Officer:

  • Vice president at Alibaba ( ALBCF.PK)
  • Vice president of sales at NetEase ( NTES)
  • Bachelor of Management Science from National Chiao Tung University
Financial Outlook

I forecast net revenue to grow at a CAGR of 44% from 2012e - 2016e, driven by advertisers' growing adoption of real-name social networking sites to better target consumers based on demographics such as age, gender, geography, education level, interest and networks. In addition, Nuomi will continue to expand market share by leveraging Renren's large user base and brand equity as the industry consolidates. In the subsequent five years from 2017e - 2021e, I forecast net revenue to grow at a CAGR of 25% as online advertising based on SNS approaches maturity.

I expect the gross margin to be 80% for the foreseeable future as bandwidth cost, which accounts for the majority of COGS, to remain relatively flat at 12% of sales.

Operating expenses are expected to be on above 80% of sales in the next two years as Renren ramps up marketing expenses to promote Nuomi. The company will also continue to invest heavily on R&D to improve the user experience in its SNS platform.

EBITDA margin is forecasted to increase to 14% by 2015 and to 23% by 2021 as less marketing expense is required to promote Renren and Nuomi's brand. R&D expenses are also expected to decline after Renren improves the SNS user interface and bridges the gap it has with Facebook.

CAPEX is expected to be 9% of revenue for 2012e as Renren ramps up spending on servers and equipment to meet the growing user base. From 2017e onward, CAPEX is expected to decline to 3 - 4% of revenue as the business matures and the spending is geared toward maintenance of equipment.

EPS is expected to be $1.00 by 2016, compared to my estimate of $0.13 per share loss for 2011.

DCF Summary

My DCF analysis derives a price target of $6.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours

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To: zax who wrote (195)2/2/2012 2:09:01 PM
From: ChinuSFO
   of 310
I am not so sure about Renren now that the Chinese economy is in a period of soft landing.

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From: zax2/9/2012 11:06:40 PM
   of 310
China's Facebook basks in the glow
February 7, 2012: 1:54 PM ET

In the week prior to Facebook's IPO announcement, Renren's stock leapt by more than 60%, which comes as welcome relief to Joseph Chen, the social networking site's CEO. Here's how he plans to keep things rosy. By Bill Powell, editor-at-large

Joseph Chen, founder, CEO, and chairman of Renren

FORTUNE -- Joseph Chen chuckles a bit when asked what the hype surrounding Facebook's announced plans for an initial public offering means for the company he founded and runs, Renren Inc., the so called "Facebook of China." He chuckles because the question is more complicated than it seems.

In the week prior to Facebook's confirmation that it was, in fact, going public later this year, Renren's ( RENN) stock (its ADRs trade on the NYSE) leapt by more than 60%. That had to come as a relief to Chen, because ever since it went public last May -- when the stock hit a peak of $24 just after it's IPO -- it s been on an escalator ride straight down, hitting a 52-week low of just $3.20 last month.

The stock price plunge was the result of a perfect storm. There was, let's face it, a bit of hype surrounding its own IPO. When you put the words "Facebook" and "China" together in the same sentence, separated by the word "of," at least a percentage of the investing universe is going to buy first and ask questions later. After all, there are more Internet users in China than anywhere else, and social networking sites are still in their infancy. According to comScore Media Metrix, 38.4% of Internet users in China engage in social networking, compared to 69.8% globally and 81.4% in the United States. Clearly, there is huge room for growth here.

But small cap China stocks were savaged in U.S. markets last year, mainly because of growing concerns about the credibility of their public financial disclosures. Just days before Renren's IPO, Citron Research, whose work is widely read by short sellers, issued a report questioning the numbers of a company whose CFO was also serving on Renren's board as head of its audit committee. The executive, Derek Palaschuk, resigned from Renren's board, a move that several venture capitalist Renren investors welcomed.

Nonetheless, the intensifying focus among short sellers on Chinese small caps has basically led to a rout in the market for them, whether their numbers are legitimately questionable or not. They've been beaten down indiscriminately, Renren among them.

Still, there was more to the beat-down than just widespread nervousness over Chinese stocks. A misunderstanding of the Chinese Internet space in general, and social networking in particular, certainly played a part. Chen, 42, used the Facebook moment last week to try to explain his company and his business. The first thing outsiders need to understand, he and CFO Hui Huang stress, is that even though Facebook is famously blocked in China by the government, that doesn't mean the "Facebook of China" lacks competition.

It's quite the opposite, in fact. China's market for social networking sites is much more fragmented than it is in the United States, with any number of companies not normally identified as "Facebook clones" trying to ease into the space. ( SINA), which runs China's pre-eminent micro-blogging site -- typically described as the "Twitter of China" -- is there. So too is Tencent, best known for its instant messaging service, QQ. It already operates a site called Qzone, which, it claims, has 481 million "active users" -- though analysts question what Tencent's definition of "active" is. Last fall, the company invested an undisclosed sum in another social networking site called Kaixin001, with which it intends to create a so-called "real name" site (which means, as with Renren, users are required to register using their real names, not some fake Internet handle). Kaixin's users, like Renren's, tend to be young, urban, and well educated. So when Chen says China's social networking market is "more competitive than the U.S.," he's right.

In China's tech world, everyone is pretty much in each other's kitchen. In addition to dominating the short messaging market, Tencent is the biggest online gaming company. But online games account for a large part of Renren's revenue stream. And last year, Chen spent $80 million buying a Chinese video and photo sharing site,, which moved Renren closer to the space dominated by Youku ( YOKU) and Tudou ( TUDO), two companies that are often dubbed as the "YouTube of China." The company also launched a group-buying site last year called Nuomi. The three principal platforms -- social network, gaming, and group buying -- drive traffic to each other, and the hope is that the added services (like will make the social networking site stickier, and thus more attractive to advertisers.

Chen says that Renren's phase of tacking on new assets is -- for now, anyway -- finished. The focus now is to make the platforms the company controls profitable. In its third quarter 2011 earnings report (the company's most recent report), Renren reported a loss of $1.2 million, even though revenue jumped by 57% to $34.2 million.

The social networking site clearly has some traction. The site counted 38 million active monthly users at the end of September last year, up from 24 million in the comparable quarter in 2010. Advertising revenue, as a result, comprised 57% of overall revenue in the third quarter last year, up from 42% in 2010.

Chen's aware that in the current, guilty-until-proven-innocent environment for China stocks, the attitude among nervous U.S. investors for the foreseeable future will be, simply, "show me." Generate good numbers -- and make sure they are credible. The euphoria that prevailed over everything China prior to last year was ridiculous. So, arguably, is the suspicion that now trails virtually every China play.

Last September, Chen announced a $150 million stock buyback program at Renren, professing his faith in "our position as the real name market leader" among social networking sites in China. As competitive as the space is, the growth potential remains undeniable. If Chen and Renren can deliver, it's possible that its stock troubles will prove to have been excessive -- something that Facebook's plans has apparently reminded some investors.

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From: Savant2/14/2012 7:15:10 PM
   of 310
Renren Inc. Provides Update on Preliminary Unaudited Fourth Quarter 2011 Results
and Fourth Quarter 2011 Earnings Date Announcement

BEIJING, Feb. 14, 2012 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Renren Inc. (RENN) ("Renren" or
the "Company"), China's leading real-name social networking internet platform,
today announced preliminary selected unaudited financial results for the fourth
fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2011. These preliminary results are subject to
change as the Company is in the process of finalizing the financial statements
for the fourth quarter. The Company expects to issue the earnings release for the
fourth fiscal quarter and full year ended December 31, 2011 on March 8, 2012,
after market hours.

Revenues in the fourth quarter of 2011 are estimated to be within the previously
forecasted range of US$31 million to US$33 million.

Operating losses on a non-GAAP basis in the fourth quarter, which excludes
share-based compensation expenses, impairment and amortization of intangible
assets, are estimated to be between US$15 million to US$17 million. The losses
were primarily due to increased investments across the Company's business lines
as well as the consolidation of, the UGC video-sharing website that the
Company acquired in October 2011.

The Company expects to incur a one-off US$2 million to US$3 million non-cash
expense due to impairment charges of certain intangible assets, mainly including, the internet domain name acquired by the Company in 2006 which is no
longer in use.

Meanwhile, the Company expects to record approximately US$51 million of one-off
realized capital gain from its sales of e-Long securities in the fourth quarter.

"As previously discussed in our third quarter earnings release, given the
competitive environment and growth opportunities of our sectors, we have decided
to step up our investment in various areas of our businesses, particularly in
mobile technology and products. In addition, we are also upgrading the bandwidth
and servers for, the video assets we recently acquired, in order to
improve our user experience. As a result, we have budgeted an incremental amount
of US$60 million to US$70 million for investments this year compared to previous
projections made a year ago," commented Joseph Chen, Chief Executive Officer of

"Based on our current visibility, we expect our full year revenue in 2012 to grow
50-55%, similar to the pace we achieved in 2011," added Mr. Chen. "While we will
not be profitable in 2012, our business is fundamentally sound and staged for
growth in China's social networking sector. We are confident that we are
following the right course in creating long-term value for our shareholders and
building a truly sustainable business."

Conference Call Information

Renren's management will host an earnings conference call at 8:00 p.m. U.S.
Eastern Time on Thursday, March 8, 2012 (beijing/hong kong time:9)(beijing/hong
kong time:Friday)(beijing/hong kong time:March 9)(beijing/hong kong time:2012).

Interested parties may participate in the conference call by dialing the numbers
below and entering passcode 10-15 minutes prior to the initiation of the call.

Dial-in Information:
US:+1 718-354-1231
Hong Kong:+852-2475-0994
China:+86 800-819-0121
International: + 65-6723-9381

A replay of the call will be available for one week and dial-in information is as
International: + 61 2-8235-5000

This call will be webcast live and the replay will be available on Renren's
corporate web site at for twelve months.

About Renren Inc.

Renren Inc. (RENN) operates the leading real name social networking internet
platform in China. It enables users to connect and communicate with each other,
share information and user generated content, play online games, listen to music,
shop for deals and enjoy a wide range of other features and services. Renren's
platform includes the main social networking website, the online games
center, the social commerce website, and the
video-sharing website Renren had approximately 137 million activated
users as of September 30, 2011.

Safe Harbor Statement

This announcement contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made
under the "safe harbor" provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can be identified by
terminology such as "will," "expects," "anticipates," "future," "intends,"
"plans," "believes," "estimates" and similar statements. Among other things, the
business and financial outlook and quotations from Renren's management in this
announcement, contain forward-looking statements. Statements that are not
historical facts, including statements about Renren's beliefs and expectations,
are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks
and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ
materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. These risks,
uncertainties and other factors that may affect the Company's results of
operations are summarized in the Company filings or submission the Company made
and available on the website of the United States Securities and Exchange
Commission at
For more information, please contact:
Sam Lawn
Investor Relations Director
Renren Inc.
Tel: (+86 10) 8448 1818 ext 1300
Caroline Straathof
IR Inside
Tel: (The Netherlands) +31 6 5462 4301
Tel: (China): +86 136 9310 5055

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From: zax2/22/2012 10:11:59 AM
   of 310
Renren Inc Earnings Conference Call and Webcast (Q4 2011)
Scheduled to start Thu, Mar 8, 2012, 8:00 pm Eastern

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