Biotech / Medical | 2011 Biotech Charity Contest


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To: BulbaMan who wrote (145)1/28/2011 6:38:26 PM
From: BulbaMan   of 400
 
1/28/11 Contest Update
Was it Obama bragging about the strong stock market in his SOTU speech that got the Bears all riled up? More likely it was concern over what the turmoil way down in Egypt Land would bode for the price of oil. But whatever ticked the Bears off, lots of them showed up on Friday to flip the bird at the Bulls.
At Friday’s close, the Nasdaq Biotech Index was down -.29% YTD (vs. up .68% YTD a week ago) and the Contest median was down -.55% YTD (vs. up .96% YTD a week ago). The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 1.28% YTD (vs. up 1.38% YTD a week ago).
GENE’s portfolio (up 21.08% YTD) charged into first place, with RRGE’s portfolio (up 15.39% YTD) and PGO’s portfolio (up 12.30% YTD) in second and third place.
At Friday's close, 17 of the 38 Contest portfolios were in the black with 18 of the 38 beating the NBI.
Below is the Top Ten list. Unfortunately, I screwed up my spreadsheet so no Top 5 & Bottom 5 Stocks this week.
Portfolio adjustments: None
Enjoy the weekend biotechies!
(All corrections, especially adjustments for splits, greatly appreciated.)
			1/28/11	
Rank Name Profit/Loss
1 GENE 21,083
2 RRGE 15,391
3 PGO 12,299
4 RKRW 9,669
5 NIGEL 7,074
6 JIBAC 5,277
7 TECHPER 3,107
8 ROBERT 2,390
9 MCBIO 2,346
10 WILDER 2,106

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To: ghmm who wrote (143)1/31/2011 9:43:46 PM
From: technetium   of 400
 
GENZ SNY approach deal, perhaps $72 - $75/sh.

Well, that's a small uptick to my choice, giving Bulba work redistributing the value amongst my other picks (not that I have any real winners this early on, but who knows.)

The deal's not signed yet, or if it has been, the ink's probably not dry.

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To: technetium who wrote (147)2/1/2011 7:52:54 AM
From: ghmm   of 400
 
Maybe you can convince Bulba the NPV of CVR's is $50 given everyone says we are heading into deflation (or is it hyperinflation where we are heading) :-).

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From: scaram(o)uche2/2/2011 10:14:28 PM
7 Recommendations   of 400
 
Just got a letter from Kapnek Trust.....

Dear Rick,

We wanted to let you know of a generous recent contribution to the J.F. Kapnek Trust in your honor. The donation was made by (you know who you are, and this is a wonderful thing!). This gift will..... (boiler plate, describing the Kapnek mission).


Then there is a handwritten note, from the Trust's Director, at the bottom......

Dear Rick, Thank you for (some nice stuff). We continue to apply these funds to the preschool orphan support programs. This donation will provide 30 kids with a daily meal and a year of preschool! Many thanks, Dan

THANK YOU!!!

Rick

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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (149)2/3/2011 1:28:55 PM
From: Arthur Radley2 Recommendations   of 400
 
Ditto from Community Alliance for Learning:

On behalf of everyone associated with Community Alliance for Learning and WriterCoach Connection, and especially on behalf of Marty S. it's my privilege to express our appreciation for your generous donation via our JustGive donation website on December 29,2010. Your support will help keep our volunteer writer coaches sitting next to students in Oakland, Berkeley, Albany, and El Cerrito classrooms, helping develop the 21st Century learning skills that are widely recognized as essential for success in college, the workplace, and in life.

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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (149)2/3/2011 2:04:11 PM
From: rkrw8 Recommendations   of 400
 
On that note...

Thank you so much for naming UTEC in the Biotech stock picking contest! Gregg passed this information on to me, and we have been very excited to see checks coming in from all over the US!

Including your donation, we have now received $5,235 from the contest. We are greatly appreciative of this support.

Thank you again for your generous support, and for sharing UTEC with your colleagues! We will be able to do so much more in 2011 because of your support.

We would definitely love to have you as a guest at UTEC sometime so you can see firsthand what your donations actually do for our community, and for youth across the state. Please let me know if I can help schedule anything.

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To: BulbaMan who wrote (146)2/4/2011 6:14:59 PM
From: BulbaMan   of 400
 
2/4/11 Contest Update
Troubles in the Land of the Pharaohs prompted an exodus of expats from Egypt, but not an investor exodus out of equities.
At Friday’s close, the Nasdaq Biotech Index was up .98% YTD (vs. down -.29% YTD a week ago) and the Contest median was up 1.87% YTD (vs. down -.55% YTD a week ago). The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 4.39% YTD (vs. up 1.28% YTD a week ago).
GENE’s portfolio (up a rocking 31.85% YTD) remained our leader, with RKRW’s portfolio (up 18.93% YTD) now in second place and RRGE’s portfolio (up 15.62% YTD) in third place. GENE’s and RKRW’s portfolios were both boosted by ICGN (the week’s second best gainer, up 26.5%), but GENE’s got a bigger bump with a 20% ICGN allocation vs. RKRW’s at 10%.
At Friday's close, 23 of the 38 Contest portfolios were in the black with 22 of the 38 beating the NBI.
Below is the Top Ten list. Also below are the Top 5 & Bottom 5 Stocks ranked by % Gained and % Lost for the week (foreign stock prices are not converted to US$ in these two tables).
Portfolio adjustments: None
Have a safe & fun Super Bowl weekend biotechies!
(All corrections, especially adjustments for splits, greatly appreciated.)
			2/4/11	
Rank Name Profit/Loss
1 GENE 31,852
2 RKRW 18,934
3 RRGE 15,623
4 JIBAC 11,295
5 PGO 11,168
6 TECHPER 8,222
7 NIGEL 7,657
8 MCBIO 7,355
9 CRAZYP 6,144
10 GEORGIA 5,340

Week's Top 5 Gainers
Symbol 1/28 2/4 % change
DEPO 6.24 9.87 58.17%
ICGN 2.94 3.72 26.53%
ACHN 4.40 5.32 20.91%
AEGR 11.75 13.90 18.30%
ISTA 5.44 6.35 16.73%

Week's Top 5 Losers
Symbol 1/28 2/4 % change
OREX 8.32 3.61 -56.67%
MNOV 4.98 4.46 -10.44%
TKMR 6.07 5.49 -9.56%
XOMA 5.57 5.04 -9.52%
PSDV 4.88 4.42 -9.43%

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To: ghmm who wrote (148)2/6/2011 12:34:20 AM
From: technetium   of 400
 
How is CVR value calculated? How are shareholders paid?

"The CVR is a tradable instrument, which promises a payout to shareholders over time based on the performance of Genzyme's experimental drug Lemtrada for multiple sclerosis.

"It is not possible to pin down what the CVR will begin to trade at, but assuming it trades for $2 a share -- a reasonable estimate since many of Genzyme's shareholders are short-term investors who will want to sell immediately..."

[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/06/genzyme-sanofi-idUSN0512013320110206[/url]

Disclaimer: I don't own any GENZ, but it's in my charity portfolio.

P.S., How would Bulba factor in a CVR [contingent value right] when reallocating my picks? For simplicity, ignoring the CVR is fine by me, unless there is an immediate obvious way to place a value on it.

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To: technetium who wrote (153)2/6/2011 1:52:30 PM
From: fred hayes   of 400
 
If it's tradable why not treat it like any other equity. Suggest it just be added to the holder's portfolio, not fair to value it at zero...(or maybe I don't understand something here)

(nope, I don't have any)

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To: technetium who wrote (153)2/6/2011 3:38:53 PM
From: Biotech Jim   of 400
 
CVRs, contingent value rights, represent potential future value dependent upon future success. LGND has made a few deals lately regarding CVRs from some of their buyouts. For example if certain specified programs hit success, or if programs are outlicensed, then these CVRs represent payouts to the original shareholders. Also, as another example GENZ has discussed with SNY a CVR for Campath if it hits it big in rheumatoid arthritis. Part of the buyout discussion as reported in the public press has resulted in a disagreement as to the current/future value of Campath, thus the CVR.

My view is that for our Biotech charity contest there should be no value provided for a CVR, since it simply may not happen and it would be hard if not impossible to put a NPV on the CVR.

BJ

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