Non-TechThe Brazil Board

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To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (763)2/9/2012 1:40:00 AM
From: architect*
   of 1765
Petrobras - PBR ~ 2010 Annual report.

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To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (763)2/9/2012 1:40:29 AM
From: architect*
   of 1765
duplicate message

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From: The Black Swan2/9/2012 8:24:04 AM
1 Recommendation   of 1765
disconcerting Message 27937592

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To: The Black Swan who wrote (766)2/9/2012 10:29:51 AM
From: architect*
1 Recommendation   of 1765
I'm looking at Brazil's monetary stimulus to promote forward GDP growth. Specifically, the capital investment for oil production that Petrolo Brasileiro - PBR and Brasil's government is initiating in 2012 in the Santos and Campos basin, on the 10 billion barrels of pre-salt oil reserves/resources.

Also, spending and investment increasing as a result of Brazil's planned monetary stimulus to fund infrastructure in general, and specifically, construction spending for the World cup and Olympics.

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From: elmatador2/9/2012 11:18:02 AM
   of 1765
Brazil Cosan net surges on ethanol export revenues
Q3 net profit up 142 pct at 93.8 mln reais from yr ago

* Ethanol sales up 15 percent at 744.5 mln reais from yr ago

* Ethanol export revenues up 194 pct at 264.4 mln reais from yr ago

* Sugar sales fall to 887.6 mln reais from 931.9 mln reais

Feb 9 (Reuters) - Cosan posted a 142 percent rise in quarterly profit as sales of ethanol exports offset a decline in revenue from the domestic fuel market and falling sugar sales.

Net income at Brazil's leading sugar and ethanol group rose to 93.8 million reais ($54 million) in the third quarter ended on Dec. 31 from 38.7 million reais a year earlier.

A surge in ethanol export revenues more than offset a decline in sales of the biofuel in the domestic market and a drop in sugar sales.

Revenue from sugar sales fell to 887.6 million reais from 931.9 million reais. But total ethanol sales rose to 744.5 million reais from 647.7 million reais.

This was the result of a jump in revenue from ethanol exports to 264.4 million reais from 89.9 million reais. Domestic market sales of ethanol fell to 480.1 million reais from 557.9 million reais.

Capital expenditures fell to 453.3 million reais from 707.7 million reais, but the company's outlook remained largely unchanged for the year.

Brazil's sugar and ethanol industry has been grappling with a shortfall in the region's cane crop that has left mills saddled with idle crushing capacity.

Analysts estimate that the 400-odd mills in the region could crush 100 million more tonnes of cane than the roughly 490 million to 500 million tonnes that was harvested from the previous crop.

Bad weather and poor investments in planting of cane resulted in the first drop in Brazil's output in a decade.

Shares of Piracicaba, Brazil-based Cosan closed up 0.5 percent at 29.13 reais on Wednesday, while the BM&FBovespa exchange's main Bovespa index closed down 0.13 percent.

Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods

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From: elmatador2/9/2012 11:25:47 AM
   of 1765
Brazil: Boom Times from Beans Posted on February 08, 2012 at 1:00 AM
To understand Brazil today one needs to start with two facts: In 1970 this South American country, with area larger than the continental U.S., could not feed its own people. Today it is the second largest exporter of food and a leading exporter in beef, sugar, orange juice, coffee and, most important, soybeans. That compelling scenario neatly set the table for our tour that began yesterday here in Londrina, in the state of Parana in Southern Brazil. I’m here with 30 American farmers on a 10-day journey that will take us to farms and research stations in a quest to learn where Brazilian agriculture is today and where it is going in the future.

Mass soybean harvest in Brazil, with following no-till plantings. 75% of row crops in Brazil are no-tilled.

Traveling with us for the first few days is James Thompson, our Farm Futures South American blogger. James farms north of here in Tocantins, and is a University of Illinois grad like myself. He came here 14 years ago and has written and consulted on South American agriculture ever since.

How did Brazil become a commodity powerhouse? Ag research led the way.

Forty years ago it was a country of untapped resources. The people were poor and most of the interior lands were undeveloped scrubland.

In 1975 the government established Embrapa, Brazil's agricultural research engine, with the specific goal to develop soybean cropping for tropical conditions. By the ‘90s it had solved that riddle and the country began to boom with soybean production. Embrapa has since moved into other research areas including wheat and sunflower. It has 70 full time researchers with masters or PhDs all over the country in 45 research centers.

How could a little soybean revolutionize a country? Soybeans gave Brazilians a reason to move inland. Until the ‘70s its main industries were on the coast.

“When Embrapa was created, Brazil’s Midwest was a wasteland. No one lived there,” says Amelio Dall’Agnol, head of communication and business for Embrapa. “Then as lands were cleared for row crop production, we began to get roads, communications, and cities, all because of soybeans – lots of soybeans, right there in the cerrado (savannah).” They developed meat production, which helped improve diets and move Brazilian GDP higher.

Brazil began with less than 5 million acres of soybeans in 1970; today it plants over 62 million acres to soybeans, with yields similar to our own. Today agribusiness is responsible for 25% of Brazilian GDP. Last year 40% of the country’s total exports were agriculture-related; and, 35-40% of Brazilian employment is in agriculture. The country exported $22.4 billion worth of soybeans in 2011, made $18 billion in meat sales, $17.8 billion in sugar/ethanol sales, and $7.5 billion in overseas coffee sales. Brazil’s ag trade surplus was $77 billion last year.

For as much as Brazil has achieved in the past 40 years, it is only skimming the surface of its potential. The country still has millions of acres of land untouched for potential production. It has favorable climate and mostly good rainfall. It has water, despite the drought that dinged yields in Southern Brazil so badly this year.

Would any of this have happened if Brazil’s government had not established Embrapa with its mission to make soybeans work in the tropics? Who knows? In any case, it’s a compelling reason why any nation should invest in its own food and agricultural sectors. It proves just how important agriculture is to a nation’s wealth and national security.

Tomorrow: a visit to a Brazilian farm and cooperative.

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From: majaman19782/9/2012 1:39:36 PM
   of 1765
Does anyone here own or follow AES Tiete (AESAY.PK)?

Hydro electric power provider out of Sao Paulo with a pretty nice yield at almost 10%. Financials look more like a high growth stock with double digit growth over the past few years, as well as for the dividend.

It trades horribly, however. A general lack of liquidity, but I personally have an overweight position in it.

Here's a snapshot off of S.A.

AES Tiete S.A ( AESAY.PK) together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation and sale of electric power in Brazil. AES owns a generation complex comprising 17 hydroelectric plants with installed capacity of 2,657 mega watts (MW) and physical guarantee averaging 1,280 MW. The company is headquartered in Sao Paulo, Brazil. AES Tiete S.A. is a subsidiary of Companhia Brasiliana de Energia. This company controls 20% of the power distributed in San Paolo, and is the second largest utility in that region. The trailing 12 month yield is 10.7%, and the stock price is only down 2.5% in the past year, as Brazil has not had as rough a time as Europe. Gross revenues from 2010 to 2011 were up 10%. Net revenues grew by 10%, EBITDA grew by 13%, while net income grew by 15%. AES is spending over $50mm in the next 5 years as upgrades to existing facilities are imperative to efficient energy distribution. As far as utilities go, AES has very little debt, which is a long term positive in that industry. And the corporate governance is of low concern as per the Governance Risk Indicator.

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From: elmatador2/10/2012 12:39:24 AM
   of 1765
S&P compares Brazil with emerging market peers

Thu Feb 9, 2012 11:44am EST

Feb 9 - Brazil's sovereign credit profile is more stable but less  dynamic 
than most of its sovereign peers' in the low-investment-grade rating category,
according to a new report titled "How Does The Sovereign Credit Rating On Brazil
Compare With Those On Other Emerging Markets?" published Feb. 7, 2012,
by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. The report offers a comparison of the
country's credit profile with its so-called "BRIC" (Brazil, Russia, India, and
China) counterparts Russia, India, and China, as well as with other regional
and global peers such as Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Panama, and South Africa.

Brazil's profile is compared and contrasted according to the five factors
outlined in our sovereign rating criteria: economic risks, external risks,
fiscal risks, monetary flexibility, and political environment.

"Brazil's stable and mature political institutions constitute a material
credit strength within its peer group," said Standard & Poor's credit
analyst Sebastian Briozzo. "A solid political commitment to prudent
macroeconomic policies, strong external accounts, a diverse economic
structure, and lower dependence on external demand to support economic
growth provide additional flexibility to withstand the increasing
risks of a challenging global economic environment without risking
the investment-grade rating."

The report is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on the Global
Portal at

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To: majaman1978 who wrote (770)2/10/2012 12:42:04 AM
From: elmatador
   of 1765
Watch for 2012. year of tariff review. Will affect dividends of the electric sector. Do a Portugueses machine translation

Ano de revisão tarifária
De fato, o ano de 2012 será de muitas mudanças para o setor de energia elétrica e essas mudanças podem refletir nas perspectivas dessas empresas. Uma delas, e "a mais importante", na visão de Gabriel Laera, analista de investimentos da BES Securities, é o ciclo de revisão tarifária, que começa esse ano e será realizada de forma gradual entre as companhias do setor.

Para o analista, este será o principal driver negativo para o ano sobre a variável dividendos. “O final do ciclo de revisão tarifária, vai refletir em um corte no retorno regulatório na ordem de 30% e eventualmente, em dois ou três anos, resultará em uma queda real, ex-inflação, na ordem de 20% a 30% do Ebitda (lucros antes dos juros, impostos, depreciação e amortização) e, por sua vez, no lucro líquido”, explica o analista.

Segundo ele, se não houver aumento na alavancagem, será observado uma queda na rentabilidade de lucro líquido e, possivelmente, uma queda de dividendos nos próximos anos

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To: The Black Swan who wrote (766)2/10/2012 7:56:19 AM
From: elmatador
   of 1765
Not to worry. It does great event on an yearly basis. 2012 Rio Carnival will generate $628 million.

Will bring 850 thousand tourists, an increment of 12% over 2011.

World Cup? Merely 700 thousand tourists. Piece of cake.

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