Biotech / Medical | CYTO


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To: Michael Yang who wrote (46)7/23/1996 4:56:00 PM
From: John Curtis   of 8116
 
Oh Jesus; a guru quote, unquote, says the markets gonna tank and everyone
heads for the hills. She's just a human being who's made some good
guesses. Has anyone heard of Joseph Granville?? Anyway, a herd is a
herd is a herd; particularly as it relates to the market. I will admit
that the market is beginning to look suspiciously like a head and shoulders
top formation and you know what that portends.
Unfortunately it appears CYTO is announcing it's relatively good news in
the teeth of all this so I hope everyone has a longer time horizon than
2 weeks. I still feel CYTO will trend upward over the next 6 months but
given the slaughter going on out there it will be tough slogging.
See ya in the market!! John~

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To: John Curtis who wrote (47)7/23/1996 6:28:00 PM
From: Chirag Asaravala   of 8116
 
I don't know quite why the stock reacted the way it did to good news. But then look at Microsoft today. No offense, but I can't imagine that over 2million shares worth of Cyto holders can really evaluate the FDA's modification of the use of the drug (as stated in a previous post) and whether this may or may not result in lower product sales.
The product was given 15-0 approval vote! What more does the market want? Maybe later in the week we'll get the proper response.
By the way this type of negative respone to positive news isn't new for biotech. I saw the same thing happen when the FDA advisory committee said Cephalon/Chiron's drug Myotrophin was approvable. Both stocks actually lost a bit. Then I figured that the market wants a "done deal", meaning actual approval. Well a week later the FDA approved the drug, and both stocks lost a bit more!!! Go figure. The market is crazy...

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To: Chirag Asaravala who wrote (48)7/23/1996 7:44:00 PM
From: Roy Snodgrass   of 8116
 
To all:

There was a blurb on ABC's "World News Tonight" with regards to the FDA approving a prostate cancer procedure. Unfortunately, Cytogen was not mentioned......Too bad.

Well, at least someone noticed.

Godd luck!

RS

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To: Michael Yang who wrote (43)7/23/1996 11:27:00 PM
From: Thomas E. Wetherby   of 8116
 
michael,

i talked to the company today. They are in talks with 3 different
marketing partners. Also, production is ready to go, they will use same
facilities as Oncoscint. Market potential is 100,000 to 125,000 per
year once product is established. At a projected $1000 per dose, that
is quite an improvement over last year's sales. I think today was
more of an absence of buyers than a great number of sellers.
See the volume in the 2.3 million range. If you look back,
that does not rank in the top ten days over the last six months.
It should have been in the 8 to 100 million range. Patience
will pay off here.

Tom Wetherby

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To: Thomas E. Wetherby who wrote (50)7/24/1996 1:14:00 AM
From: charles catlett   of 8116
 
Tom, Were those numbers you cited <100,000 to 125,000> doses per year? I think I know but just wanted to clarify. Thanks for the post. I feel like I had my teeth kicked out today. That's what you get for expecting things in this market.

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To: charles catlett who wrote (51)7/24/1996 12:24:00 PM
From: Chirag Asaravala   of 8116
 
I hear you. This market stinks. i'd hate to be an employee at Cytogen today. You finally get a long-awaited (and deserved) product approved, and the stock walks backwards.

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To: Chirag Asaravala who wrote (52)7/24/1996 5:22:00 PM
From: Mister E   of 8116
 
I am very frustrated!!!!

Approval two days ago and the stock closes below 7 today. How
can this be so? This stock should be selling in the double
digits.

Can someone give an answer to why this is occurring! With the
NASDAQ falling like it has, I would have thought at worst CYTO
would have been at 10.

BERN

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To: Mister E who wrote (53)7/24/1996 11:43:00 PM
From: Michael Yang   of 8116
 
Hi Bern,

The patience is wearing thin everywhere. Cyto is very close to the 200 day moving average. This could mean that the next few days will try the individual cyto holders. If we break out on the down-side this could be very bad, if we sustain the level then the teens you mentioned might not be put off too far. I plan to pick few shares when it goes down to 6.

Good luck,

Michael

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To: Michael Yang who wrote (54)7/25/1996 6:06:00 AM
From: Mister E   of 8116
 
This is some information that I got off a Prodigy BB.

Next year Cytogen is expected to manufacture 100,000 doses
of ProstaScint.

From what I read in the news release concerning approval
of ProstaScint, one dose of will cost $1,000.

If all of the manufactured ProstaScint is sold, Cytogen
will have $100,000,000 in sales next year!!!

It seems to me that when the public sees these numbers, the
price of CYTO should soar!

BERN

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To: Mister E who wrote (55)7/25/1996 11:47:00 AM
From: Chirag Asaravala   of 8116
 
It is unfortunate....
that cyto gained approval in a bear market, or market correction period (whatever you choose to call it.)
Looking at how poorly other companies have performed on good news (Microsoft, US Robotics, Ford) it is evident that investors are weary of these companies being able to sustain such high levels of profitablilty. Seems like many are using Q3 earnings reports as a departure point. They are all taking their profits and getting of the train, which has given them a long and excellent ride UP over the last 1-2 years.
Until the market calms down a bit and these investors have a chance to evaluate where they want to put their money next, I think companies like Cyto, and others in high-tech will not do well on anything but EXTEMELY good news, like a takeover. Look at all the companies in the past few weeks that have announced positive news on HIV research and drug development...the stocks were lucky not to have lost a point or two!
In short we may have to be even longer on Cyto.

Grin and "bear" it.

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