|Estimated_Prophet Wednesday, May 16, 2012 1:07:44 AM |
Re: None Post # of 183528
Staring into the abyss.
All just speculation and opinions of my own, and could very well be wrong.
I'm not sure many appreciate just how dire the situation was these past couple months. I'm amazed at how many wild and optimistic speculations are put forth, to be repeatedly shown to be absurd, yet be thrown out again for the next quarter. Or, the importance people placed on the SWP, when only 8% production of old claims had been proven. Amazing stuff to witness over and over.
JBI was staring into the abyss of highly toxic financing that could have sent them down a downward spiral into bankruptcy. I don't think anyone was willing to give large sums at $1, 0.80, or even 0.70 without some major strings attached. JBI did very well to raise $10 million at $.80, and it looks like it came with some large demands from those people putting forth the cash. They weren't willing to just hand the money over, and hope the company operated better. They want to make 100% certain that it is.
The long term success of this company went up a great deal today. You don't raise $10 million, and have a CEO of this magnitude join in, if you don't strongly believe this technology holds great promise. The bad news is, there is a lot of hard work left. If things were great and rosy, money would have been raised at much better terms, and John would still be the CEO. While the production report is encouraging, there still seems to be an issue with running even the new processor consistently. If it came online at the end of February, it is probably just now hitting a good operational stride. Hence, the production audit. Hopefully, the new processor(P2) will be able to stay in FULL production for longer run times in Q2, and improve week by week. I am thinking P1 will or is going the way of the dingo. Maybe it will be retrofitted. Maybe P3 will go into the new building, I don't know. I just know it only boils down to proving one machine. P2 gives them a better chance at this, and P3 should make an even larger leap towards full production. Each new processor should make an improvement, but take time to understand and reach optimal operation. I think it would be foolish to project full production of any processors until a couple months after the next processor comes online. Due the lack of clarity on P3(which, IMO, is actually only going to be P2), I don't expect it to come online until early Q3.
My adjusted goal of Q2 fuel sales is now around $400,000. Q3 to be around $600,000, and Q4 will hopefully be the blowout quarter with 2 processors running at optimal speeds. That would be when the fireworks can really go off.
JBI is most likely going to return to the well for more money in 4-6 months. It will be important for the new management to show great improvements during this time. I think the money that backed JBI today knows full well they are going to be handing more over. I expect them to protect their investment, and look forward to seeing the COO position filled, and who the new BOD member will be. Maybe the next round of financing can be project based financing, finally.
It's clear that JBI has a potentially disruptive technology. It's been unclear if management could successfully transition into production mode. It's still unclear if the new direction will accomplish it, but it is very nice to see the vote of confidence from the financial backers, and the new CEO.
Everyone should let out a huge sigh of relief today that JBI avoided near death. A lot of hard work is still ahead, but the new direction is very welcomed. JB has done a great job with the processor, and should soon be able to devote his full attention where needed. In 6 months, JBI should be firing at an exponential pace and operational grace never seen in the company's history. Looking forward to where they are with far more optimism today than yesterday. It's still early. Don't watch that clock, or you'll go bonkers.