GWMAN Share Friday, January 01, 2010 11:50:54 AM
Re: None Post # of 177065
My 2010 Annual and Quarterly Revenue Guesstimates
$165 million in revenue for 2010 is what I now consider a realistic target for JBII, assuming no aquisitions in 2010.
I previously posted that I thought we could be doing an annualized rate of $250 million in Q4 2010. I now think our Q4 revenue could be $100 million, equating to an annualized rate of $400 million.
My revenue guestimates for 2010:
Q1 - $4+ million
Pak-It - $3 mill
Javaco - $0.5 mill
Tapes - $0.5 mill
P2O - $0.25 mill (1 company-owed site running by March 1; using $3 million annually per comp-owned site)
Q2 - $7.5+ million
Pak-It - $3.75 mill
Javaco - $0.5 mill
Tapes - $0.6 mill
P2O Land - $3.0 mill
(6 company-owned sites running by May 1; cumulatively generating $50K per day over 60 days)
P2O Build Out - 0.0 million
(During this quarter, JBII would be setting up and additional 40 sites for next Q. Some of these will lilkely come on line before the end of the Q and contribute some revenue. However, I am assuming there are glitches and growing pains so do not include any of this revenue in this Q.
Q3 - $50+ million
Pak-It - $4.5 mill
Javaco - $0.6 mill
Tapes - $0.9 mill
P2O Ship(1)- $5 mill
P2O land - $27.0 mill
(26 company-owned[$216K/day] and 20 65/35 JV [$108K/day] sites running by July 1; using 2.2 mill annually per JV; assuming 85 days of operation)
P2O Land build-out - $12.6 mill
(In Q3, I guess 52 company-owned sites and 20 65/35 sites will be installed; assuming $7,5K/per day/per company site and $5K/day/JV site, which is approx 10% less efficient output compared to sites from previous Qs due to fast expansion; assuming installation ramp-up so assuming 10 company sites operate for 45 days in quarter, 20 company sites and 10 JV sites operate for 30 days, and 22 Company sites and 10 JV sites operate for 15 days)
Q4 - $103+ million
Pak-It - $6.0 mill
Javaco - $0.6 mill
Tapes - $1.0 mill
P2O Ship(2) - $10.0 mill
P2O land installed - $69.1 mill (78 company-owned[$648K/day] and 40 65/35 JV [$216K/day] sites running by October 1; assumes JB expands chamber production in China to meet the need for prpoduction greater than 1 chamber per day; using approx. 2.2 mill annually per JV; assuming 80 days of operation)
P2O Land logarithmic - $16.8 mill (In Q4, one site per day will be starting operations; assuming half company-owned [$7,5K/per day/per site], half 65/35 JVs [$5K/day/site]; assuming 30 sites produce for 45 days, 30 sites produce for 30 days and 30 sites produce for 15 days)
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