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To: xun who wrote (80)6/22/2011 2:03:25 PM
From: xun
   of 95
The general market is sitting on a tipping point right now. It shall dance in a short order.

AMD is trading around its 52WK low. Added some to 401K account.

INTC is holding strong. Don't see a move one way or the other.

ARMH is steady in its trading range throughout this correction.

NVDA finally comes down to earth.

SMH is being tested at its 200MA.

Overall, this is a "make it" or "break it" moment. SPY either goes above 1300 or goes back to 125 in a blip.

On Llano, as time passes, it feels closer to the launch of Brazos. Underwhelming at first, then glowing over time. Technical merits notwithstanding, this chip makes perfect economic sense in today's general consumer computer market.

We shall see.

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To: xun who wrote (81)7/1/2011 12:09:45 PM
From: xun
   of 95
RE: Llano

After having read a few reviews on mobile Llano and desktop Llano, I have a few takeaways.

(1) Mobile Llano meets the goal of targeting the mainstream notebook segments of 499~599. Power consumption is the bright spot. GPU falls a little short of Full HD gaming, but still a mile above Intel HD3000. CPU is a known laggard, but sufficient for the targeted consumers for this price sensitive range. A not-so-obvious advantage could be for the ODMs/OEMs to build the platform (APU+motherboard) cheaper than the competing i3 platform.

(2) Desktop Llano is underwhelming, mainly due to the fact that the IGP falls short of Full HD gaming. The power consumption is too high for mini-itx form factors. From the restrictions on A8-3850, I can tell that GF has difficulties in bin splits AND yields in making the desired dies. If A8-3850 were to have Turbo Core AND TDP 65W, I would give it a pass.

(3) Overall, mobile Llano should help AMD gain market share in the notebook segments. But, it may be difficult for AMD to maintain its market share in the desktop segments. My perception is that AMD is definitely going for a new stepping of Llano in order to gain overall market share in the PC segment. Krishna and Trinity cannot come sooner, for this duo is going to make or break AMD before Intel floods the market with 22nm core imeanlesssomethings.

AMD the stock has discounted a top line shortfall and this underwhelming Llano introduction. BD and SI may be able to make up a little. But the battle line is put further forward in 2012. That means I have to wait a little longer for my holdings to work out:^)

Tablet is getting old, just my feeling. Nothing new to my original view on this fad. Outside iPad2, nothing is exciting for $499. Meanwhile, I am waiting for iPad3 with Retina display. AAPL is going 350 and 400......

INTC being what it is, printing money and going 22nm crazy.

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To: xun who wrote (82)7/21/2011 5:59:42 PM
From: xun
   of 95
AMD reported Q2 results inline with expectation.

CC Notes:
Lenovo x120e is a hit in SMB segment.
Trinity will have half of power usage in 35W Llano.
Ship BD server ships this quarter.
Ship 28nm graphics chips later this year.
Design win with Nintendo.

1.57B revenue
46% gross margin
op ex less than guided
computation revenue flat Q2Q
graphics revenue down 11%

cash 1.86B
inventory down a little
debt 2.2B

Q3 expect 10% growth in revenue

Demand for APUs drives the Q3 growth.
Material impacts of server ships in Q4.
Q3 over half of notebook shipments will be APUs.
Gross margin will go up in the second half. Up 1% in Q3
BD to ship next month.
Tablet opportunity in Windows 8 on APU.
Graphics revenue decrease is very much due to seasonality.
Trinity is 32nm replacement for Llano at much lower power usage.
Customized APU platform would open up new opportunity such as game console.
Global inventory is inline and efficient.

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To: xun who wrote (82)7/25/2011 12:55:06 PM
From: xun
   of 95
AAPL printed HOD at 399.91. I consider it meeting the target of 400 in trading.

AMD is trading strong after near 20% rebound last Friday. Given the guidance of 48% margin and higher revenue growth toward the end of the year (Q3+Q4), in the middle of extensive new product introductions in BD and SI in Q3+Q4, it is more than 50/50 that AMD shall trade around 10 sometime during the next 6 months.

NVDA needs a convincing renevue growth in Tegra lines to break out of its current doldrum.

INTC is fine in its current trading range.

SMH needs to break 36 in order to establish its new up trend. That should happen only when SPY breaks out its current trading range. The impetus would be the resolution of the debt limit debate and EU bailouts. That said, there is a decent chance that both US and EU are somewhat fvcked up by politics.

Looking forward to a 14" 1600x900 Trinity notebook. I am looking for a 14" 1600x900 A8-3500M, but can not find a model with customization options. Hope SONY or Lenovo have one soon.

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To: xun who wrote (84)7/26/2011 3:30:45 PM
From: xun
   of 95
HPQ dm1-3010nr for VZ 4G LTE

11.6" HP Pavilion dm1 is Verizon's 4G/LTE laptop, available July 28]
Verizon Wireless and HP Introduce Industry's First Notebook PCs to use Verizon 4G LTE Network

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To: xun who wrote (85)8/19/2011 3:31:07 PM
From: xun
   of 95
Quite a week.

S&P is approaching its valuation bottom vis a vis the market bottom of March 9th, 2009.

GOOG is buying MMI for its patent war with AAPL and MSFT.

HP exits from pad and phone markets, and is looking for a way out of PC business.

Hot Chips 2011.

INTC is delaying its introduction of the Cedar Trail-M. It may end up competing against Krishna instead of Zacate. That will translate that Bobcat APUs will continue to dominate its segments in 2012.

BD is supposed to ship this month and will be officially launched next month.

Rumors out of Taiwan said Back-to-School is weaker than anticipated, including AAPL.

As far as my interest is concerned, it will be interesting time again starting from September to CES 2012 next January. Lots of new platforms and products from AMD/INTC/NVDA etc.

I am looking forward to a Trinity 14" notebook at 1600x900 as my future Windows workhorse.

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To: xun who wrote (86)8/23/2011 5:34:10 PM
From: xun
   of 95
SPY has a major resistance at 122.

AMD is refreshing its Bobcat APUs. From Taiwan, the supply of Llano is tight. China outsold US in PCs in the last quarter. Emerging markets continue to emerge. It is highly likely that AMD will meet the 10% Q2Q growth in the current quarter. September is the launch point for BD. October is probably reserved for SI. The major huddle is 7.5 for AMD before a clear sky.

ARMH is tempting at the current level.

NVDA is at a fair price point.

INTC is a value for 401K once again.

AAPL will introduce next iPhone soon. MBA 13" is flying off the shelf.

My view is that we have seen the valuation bottom for the US tech sector. Exciting time is coming soon.

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To: xun who wrote (87)9/22/2011 7:34:32 PM
From: xun
   of 95
SPY has a major support level at 111.47.

If SPY can not stand on this support level, QQQ my crash. Otherwise, we will have seen the bottom.

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To: xun who wrote (88)9/28/2011 4:35:34 PM
From: xun
   of 95
AMD warned. Now we know why RB was fired.

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To: xun who wrote (89)9/29/2011 10:29:13 AM
From: xun
   of 95
Under the current circumstances, it is the best time to buy AMD shares.

At 5.50, AMD is priced to go under.

Yesterday's warning is different from AMD's previous warnings in that
(1) It's not a demand issue. Actually, it is the opposite. The market reception of Llano and Brazos is very good.
(2) Now we know better about 32nm debacle and BD introduction.
(3) New CEO flushed the toilet.
(4) AMD product pipeline is good.
(5) Market is so negative.

The only downside risk of this call is that GF is hopeless. If that is the case, all bets are off. My sense is that both GF and AMD have paid a heavy price in producing the first generation of the fusion chips on a new brand process. If lessons learned, as they did before, AMD should have a smoother 2012 and 2013.

One thing is different. AMD the company no longer suffers a near-death experience every time its process side hits a snag, like this one. And that is supposed to be the whole point of spinning off the fab business.

If Rory Reed cleans up the operational side of the business inside AMD, I call a double in the next 12 months.

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