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To: xun who wrote (87)9/22/2011 7:34:32 PM
From: xun
   of 95
SPY has a major support level at 111.47.

If SPY can not stand on this support level, QQQ my crash. Otherwise, we will have seen the bottom.

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To: xun who wrote (88)9/28/2011 4:35:34 PM
From: xun
   of 95
AMD warned. Now we know why RB was fired.

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To: xun who wrote (89)9/29/2011 10:29:13 AM
From: xun
   of 95
Under the current circumstances, it is the best time to buy AMD shares.

At 5.50, AMD is priced to go under.

Yesterday's warning is different from AMD's previous warnings in that
(1) It's not a demand issue. Actually, it is the opposite. The market reception of Llano and Brazos is very good.
(2) Now we know better about 32nm debacle and BD introduction.
(3) New CEO flushed the toilet.
(4) AMD product pipeline is good.
(5) Market is so negative.

The only downside risk of this call is that GF is hopeless. If that is the case, all bets are off. My sense is that both GF and AMD have paid a heavy price in producing the first generation of the fusion chips on a new brand process. If lessons learned, as they did before, AMD should have a smoother 2012 and 2013.

One thing is different. AMD the company no longer suffers a near-death experience every time its process side hits a snag, like this one. And that is supposed to be the whole point of spinning off the fab business.

If Rory Reed cleans up the operational side of the business inside AMD, I call a double in the next 12 months.

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To: xun who wrote (90)11/1/2011 4:29:43 PM
From: xun
   of 95
Here we go again.

AMD below 5.50.

I liked what I heard from RR in the last conf call. He is obviously worked up. Particularly, he was shouting about execution many times over. That is music to me. We all know that AMD's SGNA is a dump. If he can somewhat controls costs, repairs customer relations, and knocks on GF a little harder, AMD will have a decent upside surprise, barring a Euro meltdown.

So, I stick to my call of doubling in a year.

INTC is solid.

All depends on Greece. LOL.

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To: xun who wrote (91)1/25/2012 5:41:48 PM
From: xun
   of 95
Surprise! Surprise! Surprise!

AMD closed up strong on the day after the earnings report. And with a revenue miss!???

AMD blamed Thailand for graphics. I thought that was a lame excuse. Well, right after the call, NVDA used same excuse for a revenue warning. If we believe in what NVDA said, all considered, AMD actually had a good quarter. And I tend to agree.

Going forward, there are a few good things that may push AMD's next quarterly earnings.
a. The supply chain is lean, and inventory is low.
b. Brazos is a smash success, and INTC does not have a killer in sight in that segment.
c. RR indicates strongly that GF 32nm is yielding better on a weekly basis.
d. Trinity with better 32nm yields is going to be a cash machine.
e. RR gets it, by going after mainstream segments in growth markets. China is already #1 in PC sales; India, Brazil, etc.

There are a few X factors.
a. HD 7000 series vs NVDA G700 series.
b. Euro debt bomb
c. IB and Ultrabook positioning. If Ultrabook cannot hit price points of 700 and below, Trinity is going to make a kiling.
d. Windows 8.

I expect, in 2012, AMD will be net cash positive, with about 500m cash flow. With analysts expecting 6.76B revenue in 2012, AMD has a decent shot at 1:1 of price/revenue. That would imply a price at around 10.

INTC is solid. Best 401K pick from last year.

NVDA is an unknown. The make or break thing is going to be Tegra 3, not G700 series, IMHO.

ARMH is fully valued as of now. I just don't see much change.

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To: xun who wrote (92)3/2/2012 10:44:19 AM
From: xun
   of 95
AMD bought SeaMicro. This is the first significant investment since the ATI acquisition. And I like it very much. No matter how it pans out, the new management has a direction.

INTC is reaching a plateau for now.

NVDA is going nowhere until Kepler introduction. Tegra 3 turns out be just one of the new mobile chipsets out there. It's too early to conclude it as a success or not.

ARMH is fully valued at this point.

SMH could be in trouble in short term. But if a correction comes around, it will end up much better toward the back half of the year. Just a hunch.

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To: xun who wrote (93)3/28/2012 3:13:27 PM
From: xun
   of 95
NVDA is ready for a bounce. Got some at 15.03. Keppler GK104 looks good. If it can resolve yields/bin issues with TSMC, it can get a pretty good bounce. But the potentials for more upside will rely on the Tegra business.

INTC is fairly valued.

AMD is consolidating after a good run. Further upside will depend on the update around the April report. Specifically, Trinity has to be great. Ultrabook hype will help Trinity as much as Netbook helped Brazos.

ARMH has been bouncing sideway forever. Buy below 25, and sell near 30. As simple as that.

SMH is in correction mode.

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To: xun who wrote (94)4/12/2012 3:46:15 PM
From: xun
   of 95
AMD is in consolidation. Next week is crucial for its near term direction. Level of $8.50 looms large. If Trinity pushes it through this level, clear sky is over the horizon.

INTC is anticipating IB introduction. Ultrabook will make or break it in the near term.

NVDA is still lurking beneath the surface. The street does not buy into GK114, so far. The visibility of Tegra is still not clear.

ARMH is still going and going sideway. Dead money, sort of.

QCOM is strong. But a lot will hing on the success of the Windows 8 phones / ICS phones.

The earnings season is upon us. And we will have a much better idea as how Ultrabook/Ultrathin will play out. Interesting time, indeed.

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