Strategies & Market Trends | BUY AND SELL SIGNALS, AND OTHER MARKET PERSPECTIVES


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To: Davy Crockett who wrote (32327)5/17/2012 10:12:57 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™   of 50664
 
Just do an online search, you might find something there...

GZ

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (32336)5/17/2012 11:11:09 PM
From: Oblivious   of 50664
 
Bank runs equal buying gold and $USDs.

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To: FCom777 who wrote (32309)5/17/2012 11:41:47 PM
From: Hawkmoon   of 50664
 
Well.. JPM's "bet" was basically one where they were "long" the economy and overall market. They were "taking the action" of all those Bearish speculators buying CDS insurance.

So if their bet was basically one where they predicting "inflation" and economic improvement. IF they are forced to unwind those positions in an illiquid market, it will send the opposite signal, and may require the Fed to step in and act to create that liquidity themselves.

I suspect that JPM was undertaking these derivative bets at the behest of the Fed, but this is something the Fed could never admit. Why else would JPM go out on such a limb to write CDS policies, unless there was the implicit agreement that the Fed would backstop them for providing that liquidity?

There is too much at stake for the Fed to not step in and help JPM to unwind some of that exposure. But how they go about is remains a mystery. They have to be sure it's done very quietly.

If they don't, then the Fed has just surrendered to the forces of Deflation.. and we know where that is going to lead us.. 2008, Part 2..

Hawk

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (32344)5/17/2012 11:46:37 PM
From: The Reaper   of 50664
 
This the sequel to AIG. Who knows who else has done the same thing.

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To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (32329)5/17/2012 11:52:35 PM
From: Hawkmoon1 Recommendation   of 50664
 
Hmm.. it would currently be in JPM's interest to see gold rise, as this would reflect inflationary pressures, not deflation.

If I were a Hedgie, I would be shorting gold in order to put upward pressure on the USD, which would pressure the US equity indices, which would make it more difficult for JPM to get out of their CDS "short" positions (long the economy and markets).

If a Hedgie really wants to put the screws to JPM, they need to create a deflationary panic. And that's going to push the Fed to act sooner than later, IMO.

Hawk

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To: The Reaper who wrote (32345)5/17/2012 11:57:05 PM
From: Hawkmoon   of 50664
 
This the sequel to AIG.

Yep.. essentially correct, IMO.

Except this time we have the added pressure of a potential collapse of the EU and the Euro..

Hawk

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (32342)5/18/2012 12:39:47 AM
From: robert b furman2 Recommendations   of 50664
 
Hi GZ,

Tommorrow we reverse - if not then by next week we explode:


stockcharts.com 


stockcharts.com 

If at the close tomorrow we are lower it will put stock to many - most sell puts for the money - few sell puts to buy stock cheap.

If we close down friday -many will be forced to buy and they'll blow the stock out monday/tuesday.

Could be a great but opportunity.

If we go up big - then next week must confirm 3-5 days later or we go down again to a new low.

Not a big deal but we sweat out the players.

This is pretty ugly and it is good value.

Stretch a bit and accumulate.

Bob

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To: robert b furman who wrote (32348)5/18/2012 12:47:11 AM
From: Sam   of 50664
 
Bob, there is the G* and the NATO summit over the weekend. Not to mention who knows what will happen in Europe over 2-3 days. I don't think we reverse tomorrow. Next week, though-- very possible. We'll see.

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (32337)5/18/2012 1:06:20 AM
From: FJV   of 50664
 
Yes, that is what I am expecting.

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (32344)5/18/2012 1:29:04 AM
From: FCom7771 Recommendation   of 50664
 
Either they had the "implicit agreement" from the Fed or perhaps they are extorting Fed action by going out on the limb with full knowledge that Fed has no choice but to backstop them. But then again JPM owns a portion of the Fed so they are likely complicit. Either way the result is the same.

I'm afraid the problem is much greater than that though. The problem is structural. Far too much smoke and mirrors - tied to derivatives - which are basically the wild west since they are not regulated.

Read about what my friend Golem has to say about ETF's to get a sense for what is going on. There are actually 3 recent posts on the matter that all merit reading - and understanding. It's not a pretty picture - and likely just the tip of an even bigger iceberg ...

golemxiv.co.uk 

But then this could all be doom and gloom that would be quickly forgotten if they can somehow push the market higher ... anything is possible when smoke and mirrors are rampant.

On another note, have you noticed the trend of Total Cash reported by the big banks over the past several months? Led by DB, it has been increasing at an incredible rate. DB recently passed 2 Trillion (yes, that's with a T) dollars. If I recall correctly, they reported just over a trillion about several months ago. The other big banks (JPM, GS, HSBC, MS ...) each are reporting just under a trillion - and those numbers have been fairly steady while DB has been soaring. Have the data over the past year or two and should plot that out to get a closer look ... but it sure doesn't seem like they are playing with a weak hand - all courtesy of the Fed I am sure ...

P&F shows S&P support levels at 1270, 1230, 1210, 1160, 1080, 1050, 1020 ...









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