I don't want anyone to think I have any idea where the market is going. I don't.
The most important thing to me is the numbers I keep. Then RSI numbers for indices and individual stocks, charts, other stuff, and gut-feel based on my last 40 plus years. I look for extremes in bearishness or bullishness and I try to eliminate as much risk as I can.
Using what I look at, a good low-risk top or bottom happens a handful of times each year. I either get out or get in heavily based on that. Individual stocks will vary and present different opportunities.
You can see how the RSI was showing weakness from the last time it was above 70 and then an inability to rise much above 50. Now it looks like a failure and a move to 30RSI. If that happens, I think I will have a low-risk buy opportunity. However, I would not be surprised to see it break above 50RSI either. That would just negate a good low-risk buy opportunity for me and I would have to decide whether I want to accept more risk.
If I was going to guess, I would think that I would have a low-risk buy above 1300 SPX. I'll know it when I see it. At least I hope I do. |
