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 Strategies & Market Trends | Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends


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To: humble1 who wrote (7505)2/15/2012 4:37:42 PM
From: zman69
of 15389
 
Long-term I agree with you, just thinking that with the Fund Managers finally capitulating en masse (3 months and 300 SPX points off the October low) that it might be an ideal time for a short-term shakeout.

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From: zman692/15/2012 5:15:35 PM
of 15389
 
blogs.wsj.com


Fisher is an Uber Hawk so his views are highly unlikely to mesh with those of Bernanke, but even still this is very strong language and it is hard to imagine her would make such a bold statement unless he knew that the center of gravity of the FOMC was not in favor of QE3 at this time.

The realization that QE3 the market was hoping for is not coming at the March FOMC meeting could be further fuel for a short-term correction here.

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To: zman69 who wrote (7516)2/15/2012 5:44:38 PM
From: robert b furman
of 15389
 
Hi z,

I'll take the other side of that.

No QE3 is bullish as it is not needed to boost an already improving economy.

QE2 gave us a huge commodity spike and intermediate term inflation - which created a lot of talk about double dip(killed the market after July 2011).

The absolute best thing that can happen to our economy is interest rates going up to above the inflation rate.

Savers would be able to spend more and boomers are quickly becoming savers in big numbers.

The transfer of inherited wealth from the greatest generation is at a huge pace.

A crank up in rates would get many young couples off the fence and absorb that last batch of foreclosures.

Once foreclosures are absorbed housing will become expensive quickly, as autos did.

At this point we'll engage a virtuous circle of inflation and economic growth finally benefitting from the housing construction sectors which have been non existent for the last 6 years.

We are working our way out of this long decline - it is always darkest at dawn.

As rates quadruple - they'll approach normal reversion to the mean 5-7 %.

Wealth for the old - inflation for the rest.

Delay Social security ages, means test medicare assistance,give young generations the ability to roll over their 401 k's and health savings accounts and we could well be in an enlightened decade.

Bob

Good does happen.

We've basically had the shit scared out of us for 10-12 years.

I remember as a little boy my mom and dad talked about their parents who endured the depression" They'll never think like us - they're changed forever".

I do NOT think this is too Polyanna.

Bob

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To: zman69 who wrote (7515)2/15/2012 7:40:23 PM
From: humble1
of 15389
 
zman: given the overnight futures at this moment, i can only say: GREAT CALL!

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To: robert b furman who wrote (7517)2/15/2012 8:45:11 PM
From: zman69
of 15389
 
Bob,

Everything you wrote may be true, but in the very short-term perceptions (and liquidity) are all the matter in the stock market. Thus while no QE3 may be a good thing for the economy, if QE3 liquidity expectations were priced into stocks and we don't get QE3 then stocks could see a short-term set back. But a correction here would actually be healthy to shake out some of recent bullish converts and weak hands IMO.

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To: zman69 who wrote (7519)2/15/2012 9:48:29 PM
From: robert b furman
of 15389
 
Hi z,

No argument there - I just didn't think QE 3 was priced in.

But I'm usually very dense.LOL

Bob

I've got my selling done and would welcome a dip.

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To: robert b furman who wrote (7520)2/16/2012 1:26:10 AM
From: sandeep
of 15389
 
We know these things after the fact only.. That's because we fit the interpretation of news to fit the price action. In many ways, that's nonsense. There are always anomalies. Most of the times, charts work except at inflection points..

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From: humble12/16/2012 3:07:56 AM
of 15389
 
Hmmmm ... not much downside follow through ... could be just cockin' the trigger ... and AAII sentiment has cooled off some:

aaii.com

No chart damage; still looks like high level consolidation; gimme a higher open, puhleeeze, and we will close the week above SPX 1360 and maybe even above 1371, imho!


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To: humble1 who wrote (7522)2/16/2012 8:25:34 AM
From: robert b furman
of 15389
 
Hi H1,

Note the bradley sliderograph turning points - first one yesterday next one just Feb 22,

forbestadvice.com

Maybe just a short corrective wave and onward and upward in a much bigger way into March?

Bob

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To: robert b furman who wrote (7523)2/16/2012 12:05:22 PM
From: humble1
of 15389
 
Thanks, Bob. Looks like we hit a gusher within that Brad turn window you mentioned!

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