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Strategies & Market Trends | Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends

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To: llap who wrote (6474)	9/10/2011 10:45:06 PM
From: Fintas	of 10478

Awhile back I got into a debate with another re spx 950 and the poster insisted rigorously it would be retested. I didn't agree for the simple reason that the longer we stayed up past the 1100-1100 spx the more difficult it would be. As it turned out the run beyond 1150 and then down to the 1006 proved to LONG for 950 to be hit. Here and now if we do go to that 1244 which you see, Zml sees and I see at some point on the way back to 1270-1303. The more difficult to get any retest under 1077-1054 let along back to 1000. And IF we were to dip here as I presented. I doubt we still could get under 1120-1102 let along to the 1077. Meaning the clock is running out of the POSSIBILITY to go lower just as it was for spx 950. And as a LONG, that makes me one happy person. The only caveat I'll hold out there is if there's some unknown bad event. As for Europe, well to be frank who is really surprised that there's some challenges there. I think we will be living with that probability for a couple of years. So thanks for the input. I love it when great minds see similar numbers. Smile

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To: Fintas who wrote (6475)	9/11/2011 2:15:28 AM
From: llap	of 10478

Fintas: thanks for your kind remarks. It's good to have some people outside the doom & gloom mainstream here (and also away from heated political rhetoric). I agree very short term there will most likely be a bounce higher to 1240-60. We had a panic Friday with ARMS 4.8 into the full moon etc. What happened a lot in past corrections, though, is that after the panic and momentum low (as in August 10), there followed another decline to marginally new lows after an initial bounce. To look at the last sovereign debt default with the Russian ruble (then more rubble btw)1998 we saw exactly that pattern. I give this the highest probability now that we will see a new slight low in September/October. Regardless if we get it or not, we will see a big bull run afterwards that will be epic. Looking forward to the year-end rally. As for the currencies I do believe in a big trend change in favor of the good old US$ is at hand. Careful about commodities here.

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To: humble1 who wrote (6477)	9/11/2011 11:58:20 AM
From: Fintas	of 10478

And there in lies the difference between 50 UNITED STATES and a bunch of countries attempt to come together and compete. Sounded great for the short term but for the long term and under crisis their unity is suspect. And then from MY view point pay back is a bitch for those abroad that were complicit with the attempts to crush this great country during the challenging days of 2008. And the end result for a LONG USA EQUITIES. Money will return to the USA and up we go to numbers discussed. Just don't expect the noise level to diminish re the Europeans. One only has to look to history to see what is possible there. IMHO

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To: Fintas who wrote (6480)	9/11/2011 12:13:13 PM
From: humble1	of 10478

Fintas: yes, the Euro story will probably have many chapters, most of them not good. For now, I like seeing the Finns telling the Greeks that they want collateral and I like Merkle saying she will not be held hostage by the markets! Why should they have to trust the Greeks after they lied about their national metrics especially when they knew they were giving special treatment just to be allowed into the Euro? Totally agree with you that the ONLY place to keep $$$ is in the US and NYSE/NASDAQ companies and US real estate. I just bought my third Florida bay view lot this year in a great, gated, nature-preserve community at 85% off of the boom high from a bank (Wells) which is dumping stuff. A once in many generations chance - imho.

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