Strategies & Market Trends | Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends


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To: Z-M-L who wrote (6463)9/9/2011 12:13:59 PM
From: sandeep of 10506
 
We are so +ve on these boards...

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To: Z-M-L who wrote (6463)9/9/2011 12:14:38 PM
From: llap of 10506
 
DJIA about to break the Tuesday low - make or break situation.

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To: voodooist who wrote (6460)9/9/2011 1:42:47 PM
From: Fintas of 10506
 
I used to post on Amat.. Segate before they were taken over. Vrts after they took over seagate, Maxtor before it was taken over. Sunw up until it was taken over Jdsu from the high 3's till I kicked it out this past Feb for 28 ish. I've recently re entered JDSU in the low 10's.

For the most part I avoid posting on a yahoo boards but will step in if I believe the activity on the board is misleading and will cause an investor to sell when not needed. I do not use Fintas. Mostly because I forgot the pw.

Yet the gang on the yahoo boards have penchant of pushing the company is going bk or the world is coming to an end.

Ex. They had Amat going bk at 21. It peaked pre splits 460. Any buying in the 20's did very well.

Seagate. They had it going bk at 19. Any buying did well as it peaked at 78 after the announcement.

Vrts. was a wild ride and near term it did ok.

Mxo did well for the take out if one owned it low.

Sunw and ditto if one didn't run for the hills at 2 ish and had the courage to take it off the lows/size in.

Jdsu they had it at zero after the RS and I'll take 3 plus to 28 any day in a time line of a 2 plus years.


Here and now I run with MSFT core /INTC core /GE core /DRYS core /JDSU core /BAC core. I'm under water on the Bac but did well earlier on a bac leap as in 225%. Now sizing in on the BAC core to reduce cost basis I'm under water on the Drys core but did well on a leap as in 155%. I'm sizing in on Drys to get cost basis down under 3. I look at leap activity and core activity separately. I tend to do a 70% of total portfolio in core and 30% leap. If I'm aggressive I'll go 50% leap. I'll do that with margin or if I want to avoid margin and concerns re margin calls I will pay 10% to a few I have relationship to get my hands on the money to exploit 100%-300% upside in either equity or associated call leap. However that is what I do and by no means suggesting others do similar. To me it's all about exploiting and when the fear is greatest is when the opportunities are best. So while many run for 2 year tbond at 1.99 ish. I say. Hey I'll give ya 10% secured. Why should all those taking in all that cheap money have the fun. I say. nah I'll make it a win/win.

I enjoy this board for we can discuss many variations of how it can happen. The more eyes without agenda the better. There are some great eyes and minds here. And where the indices go so too will the good equities follow.

This selling today is NADA when one sees and understands the big picture.

And that is why I'm about to take JPM for a first bite and then come in lower under 30. Ditto with CAT but I want a low 70 or a GS at 88.

I love bargains.

Hope that helps.

.

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From: humble19/9/2011 1:44:42 PM
of 10506
 
it "feels" worse now than it did at 1102 or 1120 or 1140. it "feels" like there is no chance we won't dump big this afternoon.

terrorist threats, greek default, hopeless economy, endless housing decline - only a crazy could be bullish. wait: i think i see some men in white coats heading this way!

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To: sandeep who wrote (6464)9/9/2011 1:53:57 PM
From: Fintas of 10506
 
Positive? Or experience and wisdom? I lean this board like another out there has some very wise and experienced posters. And that is why they are able to remain objective regardless of the fears being thrown out. SMILE

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From: zman699/9/2011 5:16:41 PM
of 10506
 
Rydex advisors beared up...

advisorbenchmarking.com 

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From: humble19/10/2011 7:19:39 AM
of 10506
 
And now for a short intermission from the end of the world for a few positive signs:

* oil prices have dropped down and stabilized on a non-alarming plateau

* monetary conditions are the best in history with record low short and longer term rates, a promise by the FED to keep it that way, and more massive easing on the way on 9/21

* corporations are making record profits and have enormous amounts of cash on hand

* pessimism is extreme by every measure from the VIX to the NAAIM to widespread public despondency. and folks, from the sheeple to the "experts", are already OUT of the market. serious selling pressure would come from where?

* insiders are loading up

* fiscal stimulus is already set to be a flood, with a $1 Trillion deficit for sure and with (at least) the payroll tax credit to be re-enacted, which will add more

* unemployment is high, keeping wage pressures and turnover and productivity issues on the plus side.

what else could we want? some day, maybe monday, maybe next week, this rocket is going to lift off and just keep going and folks who are not already on board will have to watch from the ground.

IMHO!

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To: Fintas who wrote (6466)9/10/2011 10:43:00 AM
From: voodooist of 10506
 
Fintas, thanks. Yes, it was Seagate and MXO. I owned MXO. I do find your posts intriguing..

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To: voodooist who wrote (6471)9/10/2011 12:36:06 PM
From: Fintas of 10506
 
I did very well with both but a friend of mine followed me into seagate with leaps and took the 35's for 4 and when that pop came to 78 he kicked them out in the 76 ish area. Time line was apprx 8 months as I recall. And just to show ya the leverage or 76-39 (35+4)=37/4 cost basis =9 times. That made me happy for I love to see others do well.

As for my posts being intriguing. Nah, just one mans opinion based on many years of learning from mistakes and successes and trying to pass on some observations to exploit the opportunities and avoid mistakes of selling at the wrong time because of the games that are played... We are seeing some happening big time here and now. They used to be played with an individual companies. Now they do it with the indices that have a big effect on a sector or stock within. I consider it financial terrorism that began long ago to damage this nation. And now we see it continuing to cause changes thru out the world. IMHO

Now here's and observation for all to consider..

I reviewed the sector bell curve avg and there wasn't much of a move and if one were to ignore the selling that took place Friday and never looked at any detail OTHER than that sector bell curve it simply looks as the majority of the sectors want to roll RIGHT. And that is positive!

Yet here' s where it get's very interesting. Either my software service has an error or there's something very fishy is going on re yesterdays selling.

ALMOST ALL the near term MOMENTUM INDICATORS I reviewed had turned UP for sectors and indices. while showing down on the 10 week and 30 week.

Doesn't make sense to me BUT it is what it is unless there is a glitch. And if NO glitch it suggests that large was BUYING on the weakness that would cause the strong turns up in the majority of the near term momentum indicators..

That spx mo which was at .41 pushed to 48 then rolled down a handful turned up strongly to 60. THAT IS MONEY COMING IN.

So that doesn't mean we can't go to the spx 1120-1102 many see. It does suggest that getting there is not a shoe in those looking for 1000- 950 best change there tune.

IMHO.

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To: humble1 who wrote (6467)9/10/2011 12:56:30 PM
From: Fintas of 10506
 
And count me with you on the bullish side.

ZML put up a post elsewhere for a 1244 that seems possible given the turn up I observed in the near term momentum.

So let's just get past this weekend and let those with rational minds look at the numbers, the cash on hand the cash on the side lines and say to themselves. Ya know that USA isn't so bad after all. Think I'll buy some good companies via their equities.

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