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 Technology Stocks | AONE: A123 Systems

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To: waitwatchwander who wrote (17)4/15/2011 9:47:31 PM
From: John Vosilla   of 44
 
I am going to go out on a limb. This seems like another Amazon type story around 2001-02 that will either be going cash flow positive and never looking back on skyrocketing revenues in a very fast growing market or they will never make a dollar and the common will be worthless.. That no one on SI pays attention makes me think... 'be the contrarian on this beat up gem/dog'<g>

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (18)4/15/2011 10:33:47 PM
From: waitwatchwander   of 44
 
If they don't make it, it will be solely of their own doing. The stars appear to be aligning in their favour but it is always so much easier to take the money and run.

For sure, something to be watched, carefully. Lack of progress within the next six to nine months would be most telling. Pricing and "industry" costs appear to be the biggest challenge. Many of their industry "colleagues" appear frothy - becoming amazonian won't be the common industry outcome.

Quiet is good.

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To: waitwatchwander who wrote (19)4/15/2011 11:31:39 PM
From: John Vosilla   of 44
 
They keep missing earnings estimates every quarter and revenue expected to jump 120% in the next year


Interesting list of competitors..XIDE the one that really jumped of late..any others that might correlate?

finance.yahoo.com 

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (20)4/16/2011 12:45:26 AM
From: waitwatchwander   of 44
 
These Chinese folks will be players but they are not easily tracked. There is also this Korean player encased within its parent and this subsiduary of a Japanese conglomerate. I'm sure there are also a few other elephants encircling this opportunity. With this game, there are lots of interest and angles all over SI and just about everywhere else stock talk gets aggregated.

Not quite the same kind of incubation as undertaken by Amazon and E-Bay, but hey ... it's 2011 now and everything has gone global

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To: waitwatchwander who wrote (21)4/18/2011 8:54:53 AM
From: Peter Sherman   of 44
 
Hi "defunct." Recognize you from QCOM boards. Goldman out with a buy this morning on AONE. Anyone have a brief catch-up tutorial on this company.

Thanx..

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To: Peter Sherman who wrote (22)4/18/2011 12:10:46 PM
From: waitwatchwander   of 44
 
Hi Peter,

They have $250m or so in cash and needed another $250 miilion to get through the next year and get the factory going. That's the secondary $125m ($6) plus a convert paying 3.5%? for the over $125m. The convert at $7.20 might be interesting if one could get ones hands on it.

I don't remember Sachs being part of the underwriting group but maybe they've stepped up to support the stock given all the institutional investors into the story. Are they supporting their final bailing or some other angle on the play. Convertibles can add a variety of hidden action.

As far as I can tell, the story appears the same. It's just not progressing as fast as expected. The overall market turning over likely is adding to the demise. The CFO also recently moved on. That was a bit strange but he might have been taking flack for over runs in getting the operation up. He went to another clean energy startup. A123 might have been beyond his capabilities. Didn't really look there. A new CFO has yet to be announced.

For the next year, it's a bet and they might well need to go back to the market foreven more funding. Dilution got us here and mght keep us here until product gets moving out the door. I figure they need $500m in revenue before the pump gets primed. It could well trade in a range of $4 to $7 until final funding matters are revealed.

Hard to say about mgt. I've yet to spend enough time here to capture that feeling. They might be more academic/engineering types then biz/deal oriented. Could be another q like call in more ways than one.

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To: waitwatchwander who wrote (23)4/18/2011 1:33:15 PM
From: Peter Sherman   of 44
 
It all depends on the VC and PE folks. Do you know who they were?
GS usually has very very strong analysts in tech so I figure their asset management folks will be buying for their clients.

I traded several times at the IPO and did fine. I always figure that after the IPO hoopla, new issues trade down. I am contemplating getting back in at these levels. It seems to me that GS wouldn't put out a buy if they thought AONE wasn't going to survive.

I've been bored since March of 2009 and have only been buying DIAmonds and SPYders.

Thanx.

Peter

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To: Peter Sherman who wrote (24)4/18/2011 2:10:11 PM
From: waitwatchwander   of 44
 
I think the VC was Kleiner Perkins. That name rings a bell for me. The list of institutional players (available via Nasdaq) certainly was impressive.

What does PE stand for? Boredom is good.

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To: waitwatchwander who wrote (25)4/19/2011 8:04:11 AM
From: Peter Sherman   of 44
 
Private Equity

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From: waitwatchwander4/20/2011 12:33:16 AM
   of 44
 
The Fool picks up the salient points about Goldman's promotion of A123 ... m.fool.com  and notes that they too are underwriters of the recent financing.

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