I am going to go out on a limb. This seems like another Amazon type story around 2001-02 that will either be going cash flow positive and never looking back on skyrocketing revenues in a very fast growing market or they will never make a dollar and the common will be worthless.. That no one on SI pays attention makes me think... 'be the contrarian on this beat up gem/dog'<g>
If they don't make it, it will be solely of their own doing. The stars appear to be aligning in their favour but it is always so much easier to take the money and run.
For sure, something to be watched, carefully. Lack of progress within the next six to nine months would be most telling. Pricing and "industry" costs appear to be the biggest challenge. Many of their industry "colleagues" appear frothy - becoming amazonian won't be the common industry outcome.
They have $250m or so in cash and needed another $250 miilion to get through the next year and get the factory going. That's the secondary $125m ($6) plus a convert paying 3.5%? for the over $125m. The convert at $7.20 might be interesting if one could get ones hands on it.
I don't remember Sachs being part of the underwriting group but maybe they've stepped up to support the stock given all the institutional investors into the story. Are they supporting their final bailing or some other angle on the play. Convertibles can add a variety of hidden action.
As far as I can tell, the story appears the same. It's just not progressing as fast as expected. The overall market turning over likely is adding to the demise. The CFO also recently moved on. That was a bit strange but he might have been taking flack for over runs in getting the operation up. He went to another clean energy startup. A123 might have been beyond his capabilities. Didn't really look there. A new CFO has yet to be announced.
For the next year, it's a bet and they might well need to go back to the market foreven more funding. Dilution got us here and mght keep us here until product gets moving out the door. I figure they need $500m in revenue before the pump gets primed. It could well trade in a range of $4 to $7 until final funding matters are revealed.
Hard to say about mgt. I've yet to spend enough time here to capture that feeling. They might be more academic/engineering types then biz/deal oriented. Could be another q like call in more ways than one.
It all depends on the VC and PE folks. Do you know who they were? GS usually has very very strong analysts in tech so I figure their asset management folks will be buying for their clients.
I traded several times at the IPO and did fine. I always figure that after the IPO hoopla, new issues trade down. I am contemplating getting back in at these levels. It seems to me that GS wouldn't put out a buy if they thought AONE wasn't going to survive.
I've been bored since March of 2009 and have only been buying DIAmonds and SPYders.