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From: waitwatchwander4/20/2011 12:33:16 AM
   of 44
 
The Fool picks up the salient points about Goldman's promotion of A123 ... m.fool.com  and notes that they too are underwriters of the recent financing.

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To: waitwatchwander who wrote (27)4/20/2011 2:37:57 PM
From: George8   of 44
 
Just the same story of supply side upgrade and promo....

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To: waitwatchwander who wrote (23)4/25/2011 9:30:14 PM
From: John Vosilla   of 44
 
'I figure they need $500m in revenue before the pump gets primed. It could well trade in a range of $4 to $7 until final funding matters are revealed'

Worth watching in coming quarters. There is a point where economy of scale kicks in and incremental sales actually go to the bottom line...For now though costs of goods sold exceed sales on a $100M annual sales rate based on available financials is not a good sign..They need 15% operating margins on $500M sales just to cover fixed costs...Probably a grand slam home run or bust here looking out five years...

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From: brokenst0nes5/26/2011 12:48:13 PM
   of 44
 
A Car Battery at Half the Price

technologyreview.com 

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To: brokenst0nes who wrote (30)6/14/2011 4:24:57 PM
From: Peter Sherman   of 44
 
Move up starting.

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To: brokenst0nes who wrote (30)10/22/2011 8:08:59 PM
From: John Vosilla   of 44
 
Does GM's New Electric Car Matter?

First, these cars represent a bet that EVs will become much more widespread in a few years. Batteries remain expensive, but they'll get cheaper. Huge investments are being made in battery-production capacity by companies from A123 Systems (Nasdaq: AONE ) , which will supply the Spark EV's sparks, to enormous auto supplier Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI ) . By mid-decade, battery supply may exceed demand. Meanwhile, more huge investments are being made in building out an electric-car infrastructure, in California and elsewhere.

The upshot: Batteries will become cheaper and better, improving EV range and lowering prices -- and a network of recharging stations will make EVs viable for longer trips, just like gasoline cars. Meanwhile, the few EVs sold now help to defray the R&D costs of the much larger wave we'll see later on. Lower prices, range comparable to conventional cars, and a developed infrastructure together are likely to lead to mass-market acceptance of EVs, or so the thinking goes.

That's all important. But it's not the real, bottom-line reason that the Spark EV is coming to America.

fool.com 




from three years ago:
Why A123 Didn't Get the Volt Contract GM is playing it safe with its promised electric car, choosing a veteran battery supplier.

technologyreview.com 

Is A123 about to turn the corner or be squeezed to death by falling prices and margins even with the new business?

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From: Glenn Petersen6/11/2012 9:29:12 PM
   of 44
 
Shaky Battery Maker Claims a Breakthrough

By BILL VLASICand MATTHEW L. WALD
New York Times
June 11, 2012

DETROIT — Lauded during a visit by President Obama, A123 Systems was supposed to be a centerpiece of his administration’s effort to use $2 billion in government subsidies to jump-start production of sophisticated electric batteries in the United States.

Instead, the company, which makes lithium-ion batteries for electric cars, has stumbled along with the rest of the nascent industry and now threatens to give more ammunition to critics of the president’s heavy spending on new energy technologies.

A123 had to cut workers at its new factory in Livonia, Mich., financed in part with the promise of a $249 million government grant, after its battery for one new electric vehicle faltered and required an expensive recall. Completion of the factory has been delayed. The company is running short of money and has warned that unless it raises more cash from private investors, it might not be able to stay in business.

Yet as much as A123 represents the risks of the government’s battery technology program, it also represents its promise. On Tuesday, A123 Systems will unveil a new battery technology that the company says is a breakthrough in the industry.

The advance uses a new chemistry that could permit the
creation of a simpler, lighter, longer-lasting battery pack that does not require a system to cool or heat it.

The success or failure of the new technology may well determine the fate of A123. It will also render an early verdict on Mr. Obama’s broader push to promote electric cars and build a domestic industry to develop and manufacture advanced batteries to run them.

The president’s prediction of a million electric cars on the road by 2015 seems unattainable, given the tepid demand for the first models on the market. So far this year, combined sales of the Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid and Nissan Leaf electric car total less than 10,000 vehicles. The slow sales have already become a campaign issue, and the failure of the solar-panel company Solyndra has also drawn intense criticism of the administration’s clean-energy subsidies.

In response to the Solyndra bankruptcy, which cost taxpayers about half a billion dollars, the Department of Energy has tightened controls on loans related to electric cars and other fuel-saving technology. In the case of Fisker Automotive, which received the defective A123 batteries, the government froze its loans when the company missed production schedules.

Executives of A123, which is based in Waltham, Mass., say the company has gotten off to a slower start than anticipated because the market for electric cars has failed to grow. The company reported a loss of $125 million in the first quarter of this year, as revenues dropped 40 percent from the year earlier.

“It’s been softer than what we and everyone else expected,” said David Vieau, chief executive of A123.

Yet the major automakers remain committed to electric vehicles so far, and G.M. has given A123 the contract to supply batteries for the Chevrolet Spark, an all-electric minicar due next year.

The government, for its part, recently gave A123 an extra two years to meet production targets at its Michigan factory and earn the full $249 million grant, which is being disbursed in tranches. So far, only about half the money has been given to the company.

In addition to the factory grant, A123 has received about $14 million in Energy Department money for research and development.

The government may have financed the company because “these guys have some new chemistry, some new ideas,” rather than the ability to commercialize the product, said Professor Prashant N. Kumta, a materials science expert at the University of Pittsburgh, who began working on lithium-ion batteries in the 1990s.

He said that A123 had been “a bit of a disappointment” because it had not put much product into the market.

The Energy Department said it would not comment on the viability of individual companies.

But a spokeswoman, Jen Stutsman, said, “The market for electrified vehicles is expected to triple by 2017 — which is why automakers in every part of the world are racing to introduce new models of hybrid and electric vehicles.”

“The investments being made today will help ensure that the jobs that support this rapidly growing industry are created here in the United States,” she said.

Supporters of the energy programs say it is unrealistic to expect every government-backed company to thrive immediately.

“We should be willing to take on some of the risks for the new energy economy, even if some of these start-ups fail,” said Representative Diana DeGette of Colorado, the ranking Democrat on the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee that investigated Solyndra.

But Mitt Romney, the presumed Republican nominee for president and former governor of Massachusetts, has attacked subsidies to energy companies as a waste of taxpayer dollars. “When Mitt Romney is president, government will stop meddling in the marketplace,” a Romney spokeswoman, Andrea Saul, said on the campaign’s Web site.

A123 Systems is a prime example of how a promising venture can bog down in the harsh realities of the automotive marketplace. Founded in 2001, the company has been primarily focused on making lithium-ion battery packs specifically for cars, like the Fisker Karma and a forthcoming all-electric version of the Chevrolet Spark, a minicar made by General Motors.

But the company stumbled when it was forced to recall potentially defective batteries planned for use in the Fisker vehicle. And with the future market for electric cars in question, A123 might not survive solely on batteries for those models.

Instead, A123 is now hoping that the new technology it is unveiling Tuesday, called Nanophosphate EXT, will help it enter new markets. The company says the new electrolyte chemistry eliminates the need for heating and cooling in extreme temperatures. That would avoid the addition of costly and heavy temperature-management equipment and prolong the life of the battery.

The technology could be used to produce batteries for telecommunications equipment, military vehicles and hybrid gas-electric cars that employ start-and-stop engine systems. It also could yield batteries that could be used to replace the millions of ordinary lead-acid batteries in cars currently on the road.

“It’s a hedge against the market for electric vehicles,” Mr. Vieau said.

The company is hoping that the promise of the new technology will help persuade investors to back a $50 million convertible debt offering by the company.

One battery expert said the new technology’s extended life span could have an immediate impact on the luxury-car market.

“The car company can advertise that this lithium-ion battery is going to last the life of the vehicle, with no need for replacement,” said Ahmad A. Pesaran, an engineer at the government’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo.

Potential automotive customers can test samples later this year, with production scheduled to begin in the first half of 2013.

Bill Vlasic reported from Detroit, and Matthew L. Wald from Washington.

nytimes.com 

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To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (33)6/13/2012 11:04:30 AM
From: Glenn Petersen   of 44
 
A123 plunges after firm dampens new technology enthusiasm

Theflyonthewall.com
June 12, 2012

Shares of electric vehicle battery maker A123 Systems (AONE) are given back a significant portion of yesterday’s gains after research firm Wunderlich Securities wrote that the company's new battery technology won't solve its financial problems. A123 Systems rallied yesterday after the company said that it had developed a new material that could be used to solve the heating and cooling issues facing electric car batteries. But Wunderlich said its checks indicate that it may be years before these technologies can be sold to customers. A123, which is having serious financial difficulties, cannot afford to wait years for a solution to its problems, the firm contends. In fact, Wunderlich believes that the company needs more than $400M in additional funds in order to survive the next 18 months. The firm reiterated a 50c target and Sell rating on the stock. In mid-morning trading, A123 tumbled 26c, or 16.46% to $1.32.

finance.yahoo.com 

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From: cetriolo8/9/2012 11:04:34 PM
   of 44
 
A123 Systems: U.S. taxpayers subsidize Chinese enterprise
Boston Business Journal by George Donnelly, Executive Editor Date: Thursday, August 9, 2012, 2:51pm EDT










George Donnelly Executive Editor- Boston Business Journal Email
A123 Systems CEO David Vieau may not fully realize it yet, but his company is about to be turned into a political football. And it’s going to be a rough game of tackle.

That’s because A123, desperate for cash, announced yesterday that it struck a deal with Chinese conglomerate Wanxiang Group to receive a financing infusion that could lead to the Chinese taking a controlling interesting in the Waltham-based car battery maker. The problem: A123 has been one of many clean-tech darlings that have received large U.S. government grants to help it grow domestically. In the case of A123, some $250 million in Department of Energy grants have gone its way, half of which was used to build a manufacturing plant in Michigan.

In issuing senior debt and then possibly convertible debt to A123, Wanxiang stands to own 80 percent of a company that has been propped up by U.S. taxpayers at the bequest of the Obama administration. The Chinese are on the cusp of buying government-sponsored (and, true, investor-sponsored) technology at a severe discount.

Look for a Mitt Romney TV ad within a week or so on this, something to the tune of: The Chinese are devouring the scraps of a bad government investment that you, the taxpayer, paid for.

A Romney spokeswoman framed it succinctly in today’s Wall Street Journal: “It is unfortunate Obama borrowed from the Chinese to give taxpayer money to prop up green energy companies that the Chinese are now buying.” For Romney, A123 may be even juicier than Solyndra, the now-defunct California solar panel maker that received some $500 million in government loan guarantees.

A123 was one of the companies that was supposed to power the next generation of gas-free cars. But the company, which went public with much hype in 2009, hasn’t lived up to its promise. There was a recall of a car battery it makes for Fisker Automotive and a battery explosion at a Michigan test facility. But the real issue is the electric car has not yet gotten out of first gear.

Beyond the likely campaign rhetoric, there is the chance the Chinese funding could help A123 rebound. The company employs 1,200 nationwide, including over 350 here in Massachusetts. It looks like the Chinese may be savvy vulture investors, but in the process they could save or even create many American jobs.

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From: cetriolo8/9/2012 11:16:47 PM
   of 44
 
The Volt uses A123 batteries



The Chevy Volt in 2012: A Billion Dollar Success?

It may seem a crazy astronomical number to some, but I am projecting that the Chevy Volt will exceed $1,000,000,000 in revenue for 2012.

Why? The numbers so far look strong for 2012. Raw sales are up, it is outselling the Nissan Leaf by a wide margin and the cumulative 2012 revenue through July is over $400,000,000 and revenue from Europe is coming.


1. RAW SALES:
Let us start with the raw sales numbers for the last 12 months:









August through December was upward sloping. There was a large drop in January, likely due to buyers scrambling to get their Volts before the end of the year (to get tax credit on 2012 taxes), and due to the efforts of some to make the Volt into a "political punching bag".

Since that point, the data has been steady going up month-over-month with a huge March, which could have been due to pent up demand particularly in California. This was the period when the Volt plant "paused production" due to seemly low demand, only to reverse course just a couple weeks later leading to a "un-pause" early, due to high demand.


2. BENCHMARKING:
Next... Let us look at the Chevy Volt v. its main "competitor", the Nissan Leaf:






I do hesitate to call the Leaf a competitor. It is more of a "co-opetition" with the Leaf. It is more helping to grow the pie, v. competing for a finite pie. However, in the market today, obviously the Chevy Volt is now doing better than the Leaf... and the two cars are compared directly.

The sluggish Leaf sales may be more of a supply issue than a demand issue. However, for the rest of 2012, there is no reason to think that Leaf sales will directly take sales away from Volt sales.Volt appears to be in its own "green field", and may actually be taking some sales away from the Leaf.



3. CUMULATIVE REVENUE
Finally, I calculated Cumulative Revenue for the Chevy Volt:




I am estimating that each Chevy Volt sold represents $38,000 in revenue for Chevy and its dealers. This number is based on an estimated average MSRP of $43,000. I am accounting for $5000 in discount. I think that $38,000 may be understated, but I erred on the side of being conservative.


The number through seven months is around $400M. However, I do see this number getting a big boost with European sales which are just now starting to ramp up. The European sales number is not just a volume boost, but also a revenue/unit boost as the transaction price is likely to be over $50,000 (v. the $38,000 US estimate). Even modest sales in Europe in the second half of the year, could give Volt a $300,000,000 in revenue boost, enough to get the total number to $1,000,000,000.


Well, there is my analysis. Please let me know what you think.... and help me make this better. Thank you!

Farris






Posted 1 week ago by @BobbleHeadGuru
Labels: Volt Sales Leaf Chevy Revenue 2012 analytics Measure Nissan

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