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 Technology Stocks | Qualcomm - Titanic of the wireless industry?


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To: henry8 who wrote (23)8/2/2009 6:14:52 PM
From: Eric L
of 116
 
CDMA (CDMA2000) is Toast ...

... but 3GSM UTRA WCDMA and its CDM/TDM HSPA extensions are not.

<< I created this board because I am a supporter of CDMA >>

That's a shame. You have our commiserations.

While 3GPP2's CDMA2000 is treading water and has no CDMA/OFDMA migration path other than 3GPP's LTE, WCDMA and its CDM/TDM HSPA extensions have an exceptionally bright future,

Qualcomm knows that and they have positioned themselves accordingly. Kudos to Dad Jacobs and PJ.

Evidently you were Gildered?

- Eric -

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To: henry8 who wrote (22)8/2/2009 6:25:12 PM
From: Eric L
of 116
 
Fact ot Fiction?

Henry #8,

<< At least I believe in Freedom of Speech. >>

It's unfortunate that you do not believe in Fact.

- Eric -

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To: henry8 who wrote (23)8/2/2009 6:40:13 PM
From: henry8
of 116
 
Undoubtedly, the biggest fans of Irwin Jacobs, Paul Jacobs, and the rest of Qualcomm management are Ericsson, Nokia and the rest of the GSM Industry.

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From: Eric L8/3/2009 6:41:41 AM
of 116
 
Abstracted Global Subscriber Connections by Technology Family

• H1 2009 Ending 2G & 3G Global Subscriber Connections by Technology Family (Wireless Intelligence)

Message 25831439

• A 3G Subscription Forecast: 2009 to 2014 (Informa WCIS)

Message 25832979

- Eric -

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To: henry8 who wrote (26)8/3/2009 10:17:47 AM
From: Eric L
of 116
 
(Fan)ning what's left of the Virtual Holy War Embers ...

Good morning Henry,

<< Undoubtedly, the biggest fans of Irwin Jacobs, Paul Jacobs, and the rest of Qualcomm management are Ericsson, Nokia and the rest of the GSM Industry. >>

I'm not sure that those are IMJ's, PJ's, and Qualcomm's greatest fans -- and most certainly all smart when they write an IPR royalty check to Qualcomm for CDMA2000 subscriber equipment and or infra, and cdma-based 3GSM (WCDMA/HSPA) mobile devices as well as (in some cases) 3GSM (WCDMA/HSPA) infra.

OEMs and ODMs providing mobile equipment, however, are all users of Qualcomm's CDMA2000 chipsets if they participate in the CDMA market, yhose manufacturing GSM family products are user of, or prospect for, Qualcomm's multi-mode 3GSM (WCDMA/HSPA) wireless IC's.

Not only is Qualcomm a cash rich highly profitable company whose top line revenue turnover exceeded $10 billion last year, but the worlds largest manufacture of wireless ICs has been an ETSI member (since 1997) and by virtue of that membership also for several years has been a respected contributor to the 3GPP 3G (UMTS WCDMA/HSPA) & 4G candidate (LTE/SAE) technology development and standardization process.

With UMB development dead and buried 3GPP2 has comparatively little significance these days.

Like Ericsson and Nokia, Qualcomm is now an Associate Member of the GSM Association (GSMA) and a member of the GSM Suppliers Association (GSA) that Nokia, Ericsson, and a few others founded.

For those that are into cabals and suchwhat, I guess one could say that a much matured Qualcomm has become a card carrying and influential member of the GSM Cabal.

With a slight twist on the words of Pogo Possum ... they met the enemy and they are now them.



While some wounded veterans of the virtual Holy Wars who still brandish their virtual weaponry and vent their anguish on message boards might bemoan the fact that CDMA2000 is considerably less successful than they envisioned that it would be a decade ago, virtually all are also cognizant of the fact that as each year passes Qualcomm is less dependent on positive revenue flow from CDMA2000 products, and increasingly buoyed by positive revenue flow from the GSM family of 3G technologies and products, and that is where their R&D efforts have been increasingly directed since they stepped up participation in 3GPP in mid 2001, and now are primarily focused as HSPA+ (3GPP R'7) finishes standardization and preliminary LTE/SAE (3GPP R'8) standards are finalized.

Cheers,

- Eric -

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To: Eric L who wrote (28)8/3/2009 10:39:40 AM
From: henry8
of 116
 
I won't deny you're a bullshit artist par excellence in the service of Nokia and the GSM industry, and you do your job well. Just don't expect everyone to be a naive country bumpkin.

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To: henry8 who wrote (3)8/3/2009 12:32:16 PM
From: Eric L
of 116
 
Qualcomm's Market Capitalization

Henri,

<< Is Qualcomm's market cap justified? >>

While I'm not a QCOM buyer today (nor a seller) obviously many investors (and I'm one) think it is or we (I) wouldn't be holding. I personally view QCOM's current share price and Qualcomm's resulting market capitalization to be reasonably valued relative to other technology players in today's market.

<< Currently, Qualcomm's market cap is based on the assumption that all 3.8 billion GSM subscribers will be upgraded to 3G CDMA. >>

It is?

It isn't, at least by any sensible investor.

It's based on projections of the future growth prospects of cdma based 3G and OFDMA/OFDM based 4G technologies, and Qualcomm's projected revenue and earnings profit outake from the sale of semiconductor logic, net IPR royalties, and software and services into those technology arenas where they are exceptionally well positioned to grow.

Those 3.8 billion "GSM subscribers" include 390 million 3G subscribers using cdma and cdm/tdm based WCDMA/HSPA technology and Qualcomm earned nice revenue from each of those 3GSM subscriber connections.

Realistically over the course of the next 5 years more than half of today's 3.4 billion 2G/2.5G GSM subscriptions (not individual subscribers) will be migrated to 3G W-CDMA/HSPA subscriber connections, even as the migration to multi-mode OFDMA/OFDM based LTE technologies begins.

In addition over the next 5 to 6 years today's mobile wireless subscriber connection base will grow from a total of 4.3 billion to almost 6 billion (or even more) and as it grows the percentage of cdma cdm/tdm based 3G subscribers will increase from ~12% to roughly 50% or more of the expanded base while 2G/2.5G GSM subscribers will proportionally decrease from today's 80% of the subscription base. Who benefits? Several will, but almost certainly Qualcomm will.

Always fun to chit chat with you.

Cheers,

- Eric -

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To: henry8 who wrote (29)8/3/2009 4:05:58 PM
From: AlfaNut
of 116
 
Henry, you're just too much.

"Any man can make mistakes, but only an idiot persists in his error."
- Marcus Tullius Cicero

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To: AlfaNut who wrote (31)8/3/2009 4:25:46 PM
From: henry8
of 116
 
Wow! What a brilliantly reasoned post!

I suppose your quote is most appropriate for Irwin Jacobs and Qualcomm management when he said on July 12, 2000:

"By 2003, the Company expects one billion digital wireless subscribers in the world, the majority using GSM with CDMA second. For the next billion subscribers, the Company expects CDMA to be the dominant 3G standard...."


"Any man can make mistakes, but only an idiot persists in his error."
- Marcus Tullius Cicero

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To: henry8 who wrote (32)8/4/2009 10:44:18 AM
From: henry8
of 116
 
Let's look at W-CDMA on which Qualcomm and the CDMA industry have to a great extent pinned their hopes on.

What was the origin of W-CDMA?

W-CDMA was originally conceived by Ericsson and others in the European GSM industry as a subterfuge to defeat the adoption at the ITU of a 3G CDMA standard compatible with existing cdmaOne (IS-95) networks. The hope was that the ITU would adopt W-CDMA exclusively as the only cdma-based 3G standard. There was no intention at the time of allowing cdma2000 to be approved along with W-CDMA for that would have defeated the purpose of the whole effort. And what was that purpose? To kill 3G CDMA globally. Not just in europe or Asia, but in the United States as well.

Now, as we all know, the CDMA industry finally figured out what was happening and defeated Ericsson's and the GSM industry's efforts at the ITU.

So, the question is, given this origin of W-CDMA, how can anyone really believe Ericsson and other GSM vendors are truly interested in deploying W-CDMA? After all, W-CDMA's reason for being in the first place was to kill CDMA.

I leave it to you to figure this out.

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