Strategies & Market Trends | Honey's Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz: Moneytalk and Marketimer


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To: wurkinstiff who wrote (859)3/8/2009 10:07:29 AM
From: joefromspringfield of 2340
 
Workinstiff said;

"AS Donald Trump stated on the air..."

I actually think Donald Trump is bankrupt like he was in the early 90's. The banks stuck with him back then because they felt he was too big to fail. This time they don't have the resources to support him. I suspect we will hear that he has gone under within the next 12 months. I view Trump as a blowhard and a phony just like Brinker.

gawker.com 

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To: joefromspringfield who wrote (862)3/8/2009 11:05:38 AM
From: BFree of 2340
 
<<I view Trump as a blowhard and a phony just like Brinker.>>

That sounds about right to me. They both talk like they have all the answers but seem to not be as bright as they would have you believe.

Over the years Bob Brinker's followers have made a lot of claims based on little evidence to support what now seems surely was all poppycock.

When he picked bad stocks or funds, they would say "Bob is not a stock picker, he gets the long term calls right." Of course when he had a hot stock or fund, he and they would brag about it like he was a regular stock/fund picking guru.

The ardent followers would always claim that Bob Brinker's real worth was in avoiding a bear market.

My guess is that most people following Bob Brinker's advice have lost around half of their equity stake. That is sad because it seems to me that many of his followers are older and less well off than investors in general. In a time when capital preservation has been the most important consideration, Bob Brinker encouraged people to stay with the market and even made many enthusiastic buying calls, which undoubtedly encouraged people to hang in and even throw more money at the falling market.

I haven't heard his show of late, but thanks to Honey's great blog, I can see that like the time he told people to buy QQQs with large % of portfolios and that went south, he is not stepping up and taking any responsibility. Rather it seems he is silent on the market. Remember how he would give those weekly and year to date and "from the high" calls when the market seemed to be going in a direction he was taking credit for predicting?

The way Bob Brinker handles adversity should have told anyone that his ability was totally suspect. He would twist facts, hide calls and not recognize or at least acknowledge things that went contrary to his predictions.

Now what you will see is the Brinker Blame Game.

Without taking responsibility of leading his flock to the lows of the worst selloff in recent times; it seems he is about to go on the path of blame.

In reading Honey's blog, I see that just two weeks ago Bob Brinker was lambasting a caller who was upset with the Obama administration's "get liberal programs through under the name of stimulus" policy. He kept saying that Obama was the smartest president we have had in modern times.

Now two weeks later it seems Bob Brinker has jumped on that bandwagon. I would expect that "Moneytalk" will become "It's all their fault" talk and will try to blame his stock market losses and those of his followers on Obama.

Since Obama doesn't know what a price to earnings ratio is and has been forthright in telling interviewers he never had any interest in the market or investing; he should not be looked to for financial advice.

However Bob Brinker confused a long bull market for brains. He has now been exposed as being clueless. There were plenty of signs along the way, that he was all hat and no cattle; but some like those who were duped by Madoff, wanted to believe so badly that they did not look for the signs.

It's an interesting story. Too bad it had to end badly for some folks who might have lost money on their own, but felt safe and secure holding on to Bob Brinker's hand all the way down into the abyss.

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To: BFree who wrote (863)3/8/2009 2:10:36 PM
From: Honey_bee of 2340
 
BFree said: "I would expect that "Moneytalk" will become "It's all their fault" talk and will try to blame his stock market losses and those of his followers on Obama."

Right again, BFree. Here are some excerpts from Moneytalk yesterday that explain where Brinker is placing the blame now. That oil vs S&P "inverse correlation" thing went bye-bye. LOL!

Firstly, Brinker said: "The stock market has continued under pressure because of the credit market situation where we just have not had a resolution here of the banking situation here......"

Secondly, Brinker said: "The S&P 500 has lost 21 1/2% since the Secretary of the Treasury spoke about his plans for the banks."

How convenient for Brinker. But the truth is, the market has dropped a full bear market amount (defined as 20%+) since Brinker's buy signal on January 15th.

There is much more complete coverage of what Brinker said yesterday at my blog, but it's clear why Brinker has chosen February 10th, the day Geithner gave his speech, to hearken back to...

.

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To: BFree who wrote (863)3/8/2009 2:32:08 PM
From: yaetmo of 2340
 
Bfree writes: "The ardent followers would always claim that Bob Brinker's real worth was in avoiding a bear market."

Could this bear's gleeful dance be a result of it having snacked on Brinker?

youtube.com 

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To: yaetmo who wrote (865)3/8/2009 3:37:07 PM
From: Kirk © of 2340
 
Obviously, Brinker was too busy watching that bear pole dancer in Vegas rather than watching market indicators that told most of us to at least rebalance in 2007 back to our target allocation.

Hard to believe he actually advised his RETIRED subscribers to have 66% in stocks... nearly 2/3rds of their retirement portfolios! In both newsletters I'm associated with, we've stuck to our guns all along with rebalancing retirement portfolios back to 50% equities every year.... and it has paid off well.

My guess is Brinker has so many millions coming in from subscriptions each year that he isn't aware of the real risk most retired people want to avoid. Lost touch with reality it seems. He actually told a caller to not rebalance P3 near the highs when it was nearly 2/3rds in equities!

My guess is Brinker has fewer tips to give your bare (er bear) pole dancer but he's still quite wealthy as so many will continue to send him money to tell them what to do.

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To: BFree who wrote (863)3/8/2009 5:50:25 PM
From: lifeisgood of 2340
 
I am somewhat thankful for Brinker's QQQQ debacle. I managed to escape it with a small loss. More importantly is what it told me about Brinker's ability to time Bear markets. That saved/made me a fortune since I have used him as a contrarian since.

best...

LIG

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To: Honey_bee who wrote (864)3/8/2009 6:01:48 PM
From: E_K_S of 2340
 
Has Brinker provided his estimates for S&P 500 2009 earnings? I have listened off and on since his Great "No-Call" in this current Bear run. He only talks about the weak Banks and FDIC insurance. He mentions nothing regarding his current equity investments and if he is positioning his portfolio(s) for an extended Bear run (perhaps 18-24 months or much longer).

He usually updates his views on the S&P 500 earnings looking forward and even goes as far as providing an estimate. I believe he is Bearish but I have no context as to how Bearish he might be.

Can you or anybody provide some color as to where Brinker sits? He certainly has not provided his famous "Sell" signal. He still may not be too late.....

EKS

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To: E_K_S who wrote (868)3/8/2009 11:29:19 PM
From: Honey_bee of 2340
 
Hi E.K.S.

Brinker is of course aware that there is a major bear market.

I've never read or heard him say he is actually bearish. He pretty much has to walk a fine line because, as you may know, he never saw this bear coming. Just the opposite, he was a raging bull at the market highs last October. And as we entered 2008, he said the stock market was "favorable" and expect new highs.

In March, Brinker lowered his S&P earnings estimates for 2009 considerably from the mid-70s he estimated in January. But Brinker doesn't seem very confident in his projections right now because of the "uncertainty surrounding the economic recovery timeline." Brinker seems to be focusing on finding a new market bottom now rather than making concrete forecasts.

Brinker still has his model portfolios fully invested as they have been since March 2003. So it's an interesting question. Is Brinker bullish, bearish or was he unexpectedly and unwillingly a drafted into the "church of buy and hold" because his timing model blew it big time?

.

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From: Honey_bee3/9/2009 4:25:57 PM
of 2340
 
Bob Brinker did a 180 on Barack Obama. However, he simply can't bring himself to say it directly or call the man by name. Instead he refers to "the administration." Brinker's never before hesitated to name names when it comes to presidents, or presidential candidates. Here are some excerpts from Saturday Moneytalk:

STOCK MARKET AND "THE ADMINISTRATION": Brinker said: "This [high unemployment] is what happens in a recession and it certainly is not pretty. The people who invest in the stock market are well aware of it. The stock market has continued under pressure because of the credit market situation where we just have not had a resolution here of the banking situation......

...... Now we've talked on Moneytalk and we talked about the laser beam focus that the administration has to have on this. And they of course have not had it. They've had the omnibus approach which is really off-target. We've talked about the need to stabilize the financial system. We've talked about the essential need to get credit flowing in the economy to make it possible for you to buy a house, a car, something with credit.........and we have implored the central government to focus on the economy.....

..... Have they stabilized the financial system? I don't think they have. When we look at the banking system, the stress test, the lack of transparency to date, I don't think at this hour they've stabilized the financial system very well. And I think that is why the stock market is where it is, and that's why investor psychology is where it is right now. Tremendous amount of fear out there right now.....

.....And have they restored the flow of credit? No they haven't. They're still working on that one. They have their TALF effort.......hopefully that will be helpful, but look how long it's taking....

.....Here's the acid test for this administration. Their seven weeks in and that's long enough for us to give a preliminary reaction. Have they focused like a laser beam on the economy from the moment they took office? Well, I'll be honest with you. I think the answer is no......

..... Regardless of its merits or demerits, reconstructing the health care system is not the priority today -- it just isn't. Going after the educational system -- making changes there -- that's not the priority today. This is where the priority, I think, gets off the track for right now. If there is one thing about this administration that's very puzzling, it's the lack of prioritization.....

......For crying out loud! Stabilize things in the financial system, in the banking system, get credit moving again. Focus like a laser beam on getting the economy back on a track. Nobody expects it to happen overnight, but these are the things that have to be done and obviously, they have not been done.....

...... And when you see an omnibus bill come out on stimulus and you see that a lot of the bill is about health care, about education, even the energy part of it is off-target. You cannot address the energy situation with windmills and solar panels -- we've been over that before. You're talking about such a minuscule part of the situation that it shouldn't even be wasting your time to talk about it. Talk about 1%, 2%, what about the other 96, 98% of the problem. And we've talked about the solutions to that -- that have been ignored completely by the administration. So it's very, very hard to be happy with what this administration has done in its 7 weeks in office.__This is Moneytalk."

Honeybee EC: Well, well, well, Brinker's "not happy" with what "this administration" has done in 7 weeks in office. BTW: Mr. Brinker, the man took the oath of office as Barack Hussein Obama, not "this administration." You never had any problem saying Hilary Diane Christine Evita Rodham Clinton, Cactus John McCain or "Bush"! What ARE you afraid of now???

And another thing, back in January, you Obama is one of the "smartest presidents in the last half century." Is he not as smart as you imagined? Have you forgotten that all of these people were appointed by Barack Obama?

It was only three weeks ago that Brinker was shouting "for crying out loud" give the guy a chance, and demeaning "those people" who don't like Obama's BIG spending package. Brinker seemed to forget that it was Obama who demanded the spending package be passed right away even though NOONE in the House or Senate had read it. So much for his "5-day promise."


.

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To: Honey_bee who wrote (870)3/9/2009 5:05:47 PM
From: Kirk © of 2340
 
One hyphenated word:

Flip-flop

He probably needs to hire a body guard to protect him from someone throwing "flip-flop" shoes at his next "charity event"

"It was only three weeks ago that Brinker was shouting "for crying out loud" give the guy a chance, and demeaning "those people" who don't like Obama's BIG spending package. "

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