"Math - what he knew at the times he knew them - we were heading for a collisions course - He talked about everything prior to the disaster in Sept. 2008 - and during 2006, 2007, and 2008 - What do you want him to say."
I will take your word for it that the above is true.
"His strategy, was not intended to save his subscribers."
Here's where you go wrong - by claiming to KNOW what his motivation was.
"MJunkie -what more do you need?"
You haven't proven that other likely motivations can't be true. For example:
1. A likely motivation is the fact that he has said MANY TIMES over the years that he does not believe in selling into weakness. That was probably motivated by the experience of going bearish AFTER the Crash of 1987. In the 1998 selloff, that policy served him very well.
2. Hope is another possibility. That was certainly a likely cause for his continuing to reiterate his QQQ buy as it cratered beginning in late 2000.
3. Your argument overlooks the possibility that he may have felt that the factors you mentioned were already widely enough known that they were already priced into the market. In the October 2008 Marketimer, he said his model remained bullish, and he explained what factors went into that determination. Deviating from his model had unfortunate consequences when he recommended QQQ in late 2000 to mid-2001.
4. You are overlooking the fact that he places such a high priority on appearing to be a good market timer that he restarted his model portfolios after the Crash of 1987, and that he has covered up a major failed call (QQQ) beginning in 2001. Are those the actions of a man who would deliberately have a BIG failure on his market timing record for any reason whatsoever? Not on my planet!
5. Your theory assumes that Brinker believed he had enough influence over the markets so that his forecast would make a significant difference in market direction. It certainly didn't work that way either before or after the Crash of 1987, it didn't work that way in the Summer of 1998, and it didn't work that way in January of 2000!
6. You have also avoided the central issue in Octavian's question. preferring instead to nitpick us on side issues. You said "Bob made a ton of money riding this bear all the way down" and "Kept all of us idiots in, so the big fellows could sell short stocks." (EXACT WORDS!) So, once he and the "big fellows" had their bearish positions established, why didn't he advise his subscribers to sell?
"His Sept,. newsletter stated - 'the markets will lbe facing challenging times during the winter months.' That was before the collapse a few days later. Here we are winter months."
"Challenging times" does not sound to me like he knew there would be a 47% drop!
He could have thought some additional weakness was possible without knowing how far down it would go. His timing record has been hit-or-miss for over twenty years. If you had a record like that, would you ASSUME that you knew for sure which way the market was going to go, and how far?
"I feel the evidence is there that BB knew the markets were in serious trouble "
Markets can be "in serious trouble" AT THE BOTTOM. In fact, that is often where things look blackest!
"Please do not put words in my mouth again."
YOU put these words in your mouth, not me:
"Many reasons he did not sell.
"he has BIG FAT CATS on wall street that he caters to. , etc. etc."
 Message 25197752
"Bob made a ton of money riding this bear all the way down.
"Kept all of us idiots in, so the big fellows could sell short stocks."
Message 25201458 |
