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 Strategies & Market Trends | Honey's Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz: Moneytalk and Marketimer


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To: octavian who wrote (548)2/26/2009 9:16:47 AM
From: sea_biscuit
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The "very most" aggressive investors??!! Kirk has a copy of that infamous bulletin. I doubt if it even said "very aggressive" - probably it simply said "aggressive".

Regardless of what happened before (and even that is hardly flattering to Brinker), a market-timer missing the greatest bear-market in the last 7+ decades ought to be bad enough.

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To: octavian who wrote (549)2/26/2009 9:18:37 AM
From: sea_biscuit
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--That is correct. Brinker was virtually all alone in Jan. 2000.

But still he didn't have the courage to go 100% cash.

However, this time, he is 100% invested. Like all the buy-and-hopers out there.

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To: Math Junkie who wrote (551)2/26/2009 9:23:06 AM
From: sea_biscuit
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Are you saying it's dangerous to own stock at these levels?

I am saying it is dangerous to follow Brinker. If Brinker keeps identifying "buying opportunities" all the way to the bottom, it will be worse than doing nothing.

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To: sea_biscuit who wrote (554)2/26/2009 9:55:54 AM
From: Honey_bee
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Seabiscuit, pointing out Octavian's gross exaggeration said: "The "very most" aggressive investors??!! Kirk has a copy of that infamous bulletin. I doubt if it even said "very aggressive" - probably it simply said "aggressive"."

Seabiscuit,

You are absolutely correct. Brinker never used the words "very most" or even the word, "very." Here is a copy of the October 2000 Bulletin:

.
SUBSCRIBER BULLETIN
FROM MARKETIMER
.
MARKETIMER is projecting a significant countertrend rally which is expected to be led by the Nasdaq 100 Index. We expect this rally to persist over a period of approximately 2-4 months, and to generate Nasdaq gains in excess of 20% from the vicinity of the recently established Nasdaq closing low point.
.
We view this projected Nasdaq rally as a significant trading opportunity for MARKETIMER subscribers seeking potential short-term capital gains. Our clear vehicle of choice for this opportunity is the Nasdaq 100, which is traded on the American Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol QQQ.
.
We recommend MARKETIMER subscribers with aggressive objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares in order to exploit this opportunity. Also, we recommend subscribers with conservative investment objectives invest 20% to 30% of CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares in order to take advantage of this opportunity.
.
MARKETIMER will provide follow up guidance for this short-term opportunity in regular monthly editions, and, if necessary, in follow up bulletins.
.
We recommend subscribers interested in taking advantage of this recommendation act immediately.
.
P.O. Box XXX/ Irvington, NY 10533/ phone: 914-XXX-xxxx/ Editor: Robert J. Brinker"


.

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To: Honey_bee who wrote (557)2/26/2009 10:05:10 AM
From: Honey_bee
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Brinker forecasted two additional "countertrend rallies" for the QQQQ's in the months after he sent out the October 2000 Bulletin -- In January 2001 and in March 2001.

Here is what he said in April 2001:

April 6, 2001 "Marketimer" Page Two; Paragraphs Five and Six; Brinker said:

"Recent weakness in the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) shares has far exceeded our expectations. However, we believe subscribers holding a position in these shares will eventually be rewarded, although this holding will require both time and patience. With or without a buy signal from our long-term model, we expect the Nasdaq 100 Index to stage a significant recovery over the next several months. Subscribers with conservative objectives and a relatively low risk tolerance are limited to only 20% to 30% of cash reserves in these shares. This equates to potential participation of no more than 6.5% to 9.75% of a total balanced portfolio. (20% of 32.5% balanced recommended cash reserves equals 6.5%, 30% of 32.5% balanced cash reserves equals 9.75%.) The balance of 70% to 80% of balanced cash reserves remains invested in quality money market funds.
.
Subscribers with aggressive objectives and a high-risk tolerance are limited to no more than 30% to 50% of cash reserves in these shares. This equals potential participation of 19.5% to 32.5% of a high – risk aggressive portfolio. (30% of 65% aggressive cash reserves equals 19.5% of a portfolio, 50% of 65% aggressive cash reserves equals 32.5% of a high-risk portfolio.) The balance of the 50% to 70% of cash reserves remains invested in quality money market funds."


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To: sea_biscuit who wrote (556)2/26/2009 2:52:18 PM
From: Math Junkie
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I am saying it is dangerous to follow Brinker. If Brinker keeps identifying "buying opportunities" all the way to the bottom, it will be worse than doing nothing.

The higher prices are, the riskier it is to own stocks. The lower prices are, the less risky it is. I think selling now would be a lot more dangerous than buying now, because the risk of selling at or near the bottom is much greater now than it has been in a long time. Brinker is very unlikely to tell people to sell now, having learned his lesson after the crash of 1987.

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To: Math Junkie who wrote (559)2/26/2009 2:57:58 PM
From: sea_biscuit
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Duh! I was saying that Brinker's advice during this bear market (looks like he has announced 7 or 8 or 10 "buying opportunities" so far all the way from 1450 to 750!) has been tantamount to throwing new money into a black hole.

So leave alone the question of selling now, Brinker's advice has been to throw more good money after money gone bad.

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To: Math Junkie who wrote (559)2/26/2009 3:04:23 PM
From: Kirk ©
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"Brinker is very unlikely to tell people to sell now, having learned his lesson after the crash of 1987."

How well is that working for his advice to buy QQQ and not selling on weakness after recommending QQQ in the $80s back in 2000?


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To: Honey_bee who wrote (558)2/26/2009 3:13:09 PM
From: sea_biscuit
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Does anyone know how much the market has lost AFTER Brinker came on the radio and admitted that he didn't foresee this bear-market coming? My memory says that the S&P was around 1100 when he said that i.e. it had suffered a loss of 30% from its highs.

If so, what the heck was he doing staying in there for AN ADDITIONAL 30% decline?????

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To: Kirk © who wrote (561)2/26/2009 3:21:49 PM
From: sea_biscuit
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Good point!

Ironically, instead of bashing the "Cassandras" and the "false prophets", if Brinker had sold the QQQQ in April last year, he would have had the "best" possible performance (i.e. a loss of about 40% - after nearly 8 YEARS!) Instead, he gave his subscribers more koolaid so they could go down another 50% from there! What a disaster!

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