Re: "The poll was not of likely voters. Therefore the conclusion was faulty."
No poll is ever perfect.
And particularly (as I already pointed out) political polling this far in advance of an election is notoriously volatile and not necessarily representative of where voters will be come election day.
That said, this Investor's Business Daily poll polled "eligible voters", which is a perfectly reasonable and valid universe to sample. ("Ineligible" folks from the general population would possibly have similar leanings but I think we both would agree that would possibly produce a less accurate prediction).
Your suggestion that "likely voters" would produce more accurate polling results has a few serious methodological problems with it though... not the least of which is that there is no single selection methodology for determining what is really a "likely voter" or a "highly likely voter" from a "less likely" soul.
All the pollsters have THEIR OWN ideas about that so the ability to *compare* between different polls different results (even when both polls claim to be sampling what they call "likely" voters) becomes problematic.
Such differences can inject MORE uncertainty, not less, into the results.
Also... someone who claims they are "likely* today (because they are 'highly motivated or interested') may become "unlikely" tomorrow... if their level of interest wanes. and visa-versa.
Finally, 'eligible' is easier for polling organizations to vet, less likely for dishonesty or different polling methodologies to affect... because what they must ask the respondents is simple and easily understood: 'Are you registered to vote in this jurisdiction?'
See ya, Bill.... |
