Technology Stocks | The New QUALCOMM - Coming Into Buy Range


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To: scots40 who wrote (7142)1/28/2011 6:52:40 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer3 Recommendations   of 8618
 
PC-Link was a service run by the company that later became known as America Online. My own online newsletter started in 1981 and still continues as the oldest online interactive investment advisory service.

My QCOM early recommendation happily made quite a few millionaires, but it usually takes more than one stock.

Art

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To: Rich Bloem who wrote (7141)1/28/2011 6:57:32 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer   of 8618
 
Re: a $40,000.00 haircut. Think what it's about to cost the Egyptian president and his cronies.

Having worked in Muslim countries for over 7 years, and having visited Egypt as part of a diplomatic/business delegation to Israel and all her neighbors (late 2008), I think what is happening is a healthy sign for change in the right direction. It will help world markets eventually, especially the developing nations that have no wired communications infrastructure and great needs for wireless data.

Art

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To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (7144)1/28/2011 7:02:15 PM
From: JeffreyHF3 Recommendations   of 8618
 
Apparently you know who would fill the power vacuum, if Mubarak were overthrown. I doubt the markets would view Mubarak's ouster as positive. Careful what you wish for.

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From: quartersawyer1/28/2011 7:11:58 PM
7 Recommendations   of 8618
 
Oddly enough, it wasn't just the very rational Gregg Powers who got me irrationally heavy into QCOM all during 1998, or the enlightening discourse on SI among a number of knowledgeable characters leading to whatever research I could muster an understanding of.... But after fully and finally committing way overweight long by December '98, there was a strange set of excited posts one day in March of '99 from GO QCOM, the nurse anesthetist from San Diego. He was absolutely insistent in all caps that something "BIG" was going to unfold re: Ericsson within a week or two. That was unique and intoxicating thinking for the Q board --- I plunked down $10,000 from my Dad's newly settled small estate on well out of the money, cheap April calls ---> my wife's influence turned those 75% exercised options into Instant Funding of three daughters' educations including 2 though med schools, after taxes! (She didn't really accept my assessment of the conditions-- she asked in '99-- "What is happening here?" I said "Rocket ride")

I PM'd a thanks to Gregg P. in early 2000 about that education funding, and the fact that my eldest was doing research in pediatric oncology at the time and headed for Hopkins Med. He responded in a heartfelt reply that his original youthful goals were in pediatric medicine, but that got deflected in a complicated way. Still in some measure he could see this fortunate turn of events for my family as a way of contributing to what he wanted to do long ago.

There have always been amazing people around here, and with very few exceptions, much more sophisticated thoughtful supportive honest talk than a healthy cynic should ever expect from a chat room. (Which calls for another beer.)

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From: FWS1/28/2011 8:30:57 PM
9 Recommendations   of 8618
 
Don't post often but here goes. I was working as a $15 pbx operator at a hotel. I've always had an interest in the market, had invested in small caps, and was interested in wireless to boot. (remember MCOM?) I was always following dink stock message boards and one day saw Maurice Winn make a joke like, "what are u guys doing talking about junk on this thread? Come to the Q thread and load your Tonka truck!) Thanks Maurice. I became enamored of the discussion. Gregg Powers, the Q thread, led me to buy in 98-99. I moved to the front desk to make a few cents more per hour, but one day I checked in a guest and noticed he worked for Q. I mentioned, "i read about the case vs ericsson? What do u think will happen?" He casually walked away and said, "don't worry, we'll win." I think it was Jeff Belk.

Unfortunately I decided to go for it all and in my naivete loaded up on GSTRF also. BAD MOVE!!. I used margin power from bloated Q and bot GSTRF on margin. Dark years followed. I had been repeatedly buying calls, stock on margin.. from the 40's to the 70's, hoping Q wud rise. All of that has been washed away by margin calls. I've sold back every extra share bot in the last 10 years to cover margin calls from the internet, telecom and mortgage crashes. All I have left is the original lot bot back in 98-99. And I'm still paying back the GSTRF debt!

All told i'm not sure if i'd been better off just saving money!. But i'm also thankful i'm not bankrupt. In the days of margin calls, I should have been totally liquidated. but I think they just didn't get around to my account yet. I ignored the phone and let fate take over. I cud never pay back the margin with my meager income. The only way out was for Q to rise again.

It's now 2011. Got some Q left, haven't really bot a single stock in 10 yrs and hoping for the best! Still haven't paid off that GSTRF margin loan!. I make $20 an hour now and still check in guests. But they nor my coworkers know that the man in the uniform suit might be a quillionaire in 3 yrs.

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To: FWS who wrote (7147)1/28/2011 9:13:07 PM
From: Eric Martin5 Recommendations   of 8618
 
I was a fixed income analyst in technology on Wall Street in 1997. Out of curiosity I regularly ran screens for value stocks that had low EBITDA multiples. Qualcomm came up on the screen because the stock was low due to concerns about the Asian financial crisis and Korea. I thought that despite the loss of income in Korea, the cell phone was one of the last things that people would give up. I bought double my usual investment holding, not much in those days. My fellow analysts showed me the Jacob's Patter article that had appeared in the Wall Street Journal and made some skeptical comments about my investment. I tried to convince them that the technology was sound but was unable to interest anyone else.
Needless to say they remembered my recommendation in 1999. Unfortunately, I also neglected to sell at the beginning of 2000 when a value screen would have shown that the stock was priced for perfection, and rode it all the way down. I was able to sell in the forties and buy in the thirties a couple of times and am happy to have a pretty large holding today.
I am keeping my eye on the relative value of the stock and am relieved to be a much more comfortable holder currently.

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To: FWS who wrote (7147)1/28/2011 9:29:57 PM
From: Tony Strickland7 Recommendations   of 8618
 
Another story from a lurker. As a screen printer, I let my broker invest some money and never questioned the churn. I read somewhere about this company who's employee had been arrested in Russia for accused spying. A deal was cut and the company sent a jet to bring the employee home for x-mas. I said to myself, what a cool company, maybe I should look into that. Once I got serious, I decided to catch an early AM jet from Baltimore to Orlando to crash a show about this electronic stuff. Paid my $100 and they thought I was in the business. I "stalked" IMJ for about 6 hours as I walked the show and always wandered back. I could see he was for real. I went home that day and after my broker flatly refused to allow me to buy QCOM, I fired her. Didn't know anything about options but bought alot. The rest is history except for this. I flew out for the SH party and met a bunch of you. Once I met Uncle Frank, he told me I was too heavily in margin and get it down. Reluctantly I came home and lightened up allot. Uncle Frank and this forum saved my financial life.
Sorry, I can't make the party this year Engineer, or I'd bring shirts and hats like before.
Back to lurk mode.
Tony

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To: Tony Strickland who wrote (7149)1/28/2011 10:11:03 PM
From: Ron M6 Recommendations   of 8618
 
Yet another story. I first heard the name QUALCOMM when a rep from Schneider Transport of Green Bay, WI made a presentation of some truck tracking thing called Omnitracks.

That was ignored until one day a guy from Bechtel called at my office on the college campus. He wanted to lease land for the installation of a cell tower for something called cdma that both Primco and Verizon were about to launch. I'm basically a pail and shovel investor so I asked who had the technolgy behind this effort---again that name QUALCOMM.

I did a little research and found that an Irwin Jacobs was the driving force. In that era in the Midwest the name Irwin Jacobs was not held in the highest esteem.

Here is a current excerpt;

"At his fiercest, corporate raider Irwin L. Jacobs, a member of The Forbes 400 richest Americans from 1986 to 1988, terrorized chief executives, forcing them to either fix their problems or sell them off--to him, if possible. He bought stakes in Kaiser Steel, Walt Disney, Borg-Warner and Pabst Brewing, financing his predations with his own cash, then selling for a quick profit."

I dismissed investing in anything run by Irwin Jacobs. A bit later I was on a flight to San Diego and read a Gilder article in Forbes. I finally noted the difference between Irwin L. and Irwin M. At a stop at LAX enroute to SD, I got off the plane, called my broker and made my first QCOM purchase. The rest is history, Crazy Days of 99, early retirement, and a secure future. Thank you Irwin M. Jacobs.

As we are speaking of old timers recall some of early SI QCOM posters===Craig Schilling, Phil Merryman, Chris Reeder (qdog), Harvey Rosenkrantz, Ramsey Su and even (no name provided).


RonM---first posted #650 on the original thread.


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To: Ron M who wrote (7150)1/28/2011 11:55:48 PM
From: oncorhynchus7 Recommendations   of 8618
 
First post ever, anywhere online in fact, but I felt obligated after reading these histories.

During the last half of 1998, doing quite well investing in tech since early in the decade and thinking that Bill Gates would fund my retirement, I was trolling the net for wireless stuff and through checking out a MSFT partnership called "Wireless Knowledge" (if memory serves correctly), stumbled upon QCOM.

It sounded too good to be true but everything I could find online indicated that it was real so I bought some within an hour, some more the next day, and after digging back through the QCOM thread added what I could into early 1999.

When lift-off came, the posters on SI kept me from jumping off prematurely. Like others, I also came within a hair of exiting during the last days of 99, but instead rode it through the tech bust. That was tough. Mortgaged the house and sold lakefront land to meet margin calls to keep our Q position. It was the right decision since we're now comfortably back into 7 figure territory. Without reading the discussions by all of the contributors here, I would never have had the confidence to hang in.

Thank you all so very, very much!

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From: BDAZZ1/29/2011 3:01:17 AM
3 Recommendations   of 8618
 
Great stories guys!!! Especially like to see the lurkers chiming in. Have to agree with many that the quality of people here has been as important to my investment hold as the quality of the company itself.

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