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From: David T. Groves1/12/2011 6:43:03 PM
   of 130
 
Here is the Vonage chart, from the beginning, using a method that I have found helpful before. (Yes I watch for stocks in trouble, and turnaround situations)

Unlike my other charts it is simple and easy to understand.

The basic premise is, "What goes down, and turns around, goes up, many times in a mirror image"

Goes up Chart

Hope you enjoy!

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To: David T. Groves who wrote (116)1/12/2011 8:28:46 PM
From: FUBHO
   of 130
 
Wow, 12 bagger off the bottom. Hope you made a ton of money.

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To: David T. Groves who wrote (116)4/13/2011 12:27:23 PM
From: zax
   of 130
 
I'm back in, as of today, @ $4.74.

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From: David T. Groves4/17/2011 1:58:21 PM
   of 130
 
Things have changed quickly at VG and that $20M+ FCF every Qtr will keep things changing.

Citi, Duetche Bank recently reviewed Vonage's Financials, Business plans and put their stamp of approval on, with Great financing.
Refinance news

Vonage applied for 7 new patents In the last 7 months.
Patent Applications

VG gained 5000 customers 4th qtr, refinanced debt, cut interest in half, they have finally overcome ALL the negatives of the last four years and are ready to progress with their business plan, expanding globally, Monetizing the new products.

Apr. 15 Vonage achieved another Acending Triple Top Breakout with the new preliminary bullish price objective of $7.75
triple top breakout

On 16-Apr-11 -Phoenix Partners Group initiated coverage at a BUY with a $5.75 target
New analyst upgrade

My latest chart - Where will the triple top take us?
Dave's chart

Makes the new analyst look conservative to me - but we are used to it!

Adding customers
Lowering churn
Huge EBITDA
Huge free cash flow
Restructured debt - interest cut in half
Restructured debt with great terms
New products - plan to monetize 2nd half
New services - plan to monetize 2nd half
Infrastructure in place to handle new services
Plan to continue to expand globally
Great new management performing
"Surprise" loan write downs gone forever
Forward 2011 earnings estimates in the $.25+ range
UnderValued compared to it's nearest competitor by 3x
New analyst coverage at a Buy
New patent applications

Market recognising the turnaround - NOT YET!

Compare VG to EGHT - the closest competitor.

EGHT focus is on Business, it still services homes. VG focus is on both, with a bigger home. VG has added Cell phone APPS, Social Networking, So has EGHT.

HOW UNDERVALUED IS VONAGE?

Analysts expect VG 2011 earnings of $.25
Analysts expect EGHT 2011 earnings of $.11

ALL of the comparison Values are at Yahoo Key Statistics. (4/16/11)

VG - $5.00 PPS
Ent Val/Rev (ttm) .........1.40
Ent Val/EBITDA (ttm)... 8.33
Price/Sales (ttm): .........1.22
Rev Per Share (ttm):...... 4.22
EBITDA (ttm): 149M..............................(Per Shr _ .67)
Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 194M...........(Per Shr _ .87)
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): 116M......(Per Shr_ .52)


EGHT - $2.93 PPS
Ent Val/Rev (ttm).......... 2.40
Ent Val/EBITDA (ttm).. 23.52
Price/Sales (ttm):.......... 2.61
Rev Per Share (ttm):.... 1.07
EBITDA (ttm): 7M...............................(Per Shr _ .11)
Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 8M................(Per Shr_ .13)
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): 4.1M......(Per Shr _ .06)

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

If VG was to be Valuated as EGHT, VG PPS would have to go up the stated Value in each case:

Ent Val/Rev (ttm)............1.7X
Ent Val/EBITDA (ttm)..... 2.8X
Price/Sales (ttm):............2.14X
Rev Per Share (ttm): ........3.94X
EBITDA per Shr ...............6.1X

The average is 3.34X

Is EGHT over Valued? NO - fits in nicely with Telcos.

If VG were to be Valued the same as EGHT, with these comparison ratios, VG PPS would be $16.60!

Out of range? Check out the Google stockscanner; stocks with a $500M to $2B market cap, and $.24 - $.36 in earnings. (watch that 1st Q earnings report on May 4th, in 2 weeks to validate $.06 - $.09 for the 1st qtr)

$16.00 is in the mid range! The lowest PPS is $4.70! Highest is $43

GOOGLESCAN]

BUYING OPP
JMO Dave

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To: David T. Groves who wrote (119)5/10/2011 10:14:49 AM
From: zax
   of 130
 
Today's Microsoft move on Skype gotta be good for Vonage.

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From: David T. Groves11/26/2011 10:58:30 PM
1 Recommendation   of 130
 
The last three earnings reports give us $.27 GAAP earnings.

$2.20/$.27 = 8.1 GAAP PE for nine months

Vonage Holdings Corp. Reports Third Quarter 2011 Results
ir.vonage.com
"" net income of $24 million or $0.11 per share excluding adjustments""
""GAAP net income was $16 million or $0.07 per share.""

Vonage Holdings Corp. Reports Second Quarter 2011 Results
ir.vonage.com
""Net income increased to a record high $22 million or $0.10 per share""

Vonage Holdings Corp. Reports First Quarter 2011 Results
ir.vonage.com
""Vonage generated record high net income of $21 million or $0.10 per share""

There should be no major write downs 4th quarter, so when we see that $.11 as GAAP earnings the ttm GAAP earnings will be $.38

If PPS is still $2.20, Vonage will be selling at a 5.7 PE

As per Yahoo and my numbers Vonage is currently selling at 31.8 PE until the 4th quarter numbers are in and the PE drops to 5.7 PE

I see many articles that say Vonage is selling at up to a 55 PE - But they just don't seem to be doing their homework!

No mention that they will be selling at present PPS for 2011 at a 5.7 PE

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To: David T. Groves who wrote (121)2/8/2012 10:54:21 PM
From: zax
1 Recommendation   of 130
 
Vonage brings free calling and messaging to iPhone, Android
By: Zach Epstein | Feb 8th, 2012 at 05:25PM

bgr.com



Vonage on Wednesday unveiled a new mobile app for the iPhone and Android smartphones that affords free calling and messaging along with cheap international calling rates. Vonage Mobile allows users to make free “high-definition” voice over IP calls among each other over Wi-Fi, 3G or 4G data connections, and low-cost calls can also be placed through the app to any landline or cell phone globally. The New Jersey-based Telco says its international calling rates are 70% lower than rates from major carriers and 30% lower than Skype. ”Vonage Mobile consolidates the best features of our prior applications, while adding important functionality, better value and improved ease of use,” Vonage CEO Marc Lefar said in a statement. “It combines the best of free high-def voice and messaging along with incredible value for traditional international calls, all while using the existing mobile number and address book for unsurpassed ease of use.” Vonage’s full press release follows below.

Vonage Launches New Mobile App Providing Free Calling and Texting to Other App Users around the World

Savings of more than 70 percent on international calls to those without the app


HOLMDEL, N.J., February 8, 2012 – Vonage Holdings Corp. (NYSE: VG) announced the launch of Vonage Mobile®, the new iPhone® and Android™ app that lets users make free high-definition calls and send free texts to all users of the app, worldwide1. The app works over Wi-Fi, 3G and 4G wireless data networks.

When calling those who have not yet downloaded the app,Vonage Mobile provides ultra low-cost international calling with per-minute rates that are on average 70 percent less than major mobile carriers and 30 percent less than Skype™2. Users can instantly add calling credit directly from the app through iTunes® or Android Market™ in increments of $4.99 and $9.99.

Vonage Mobile uses the phone’s existing mobile number and contact list, eliminating the need for unique user names and duplicate identities for contacts. Users can instantly build a free global calling and texting network using the app’s multi-invite system from their existing contacts.

“Vonage Mobileconsolidates the best features of our prior applications, while adding important functionality, better value and improved ease of use,” said Marc Lefar, CEO of Vonage. “It combines the best of free high-def voice and messaging along with incredible value for traditional international calls, all while using the existing mobile number and address book for unsurpassed ease of use.”

In addition, calls to any phone in the United States, Canada or Puerto Rico from anywhere in the world will be free for a limited time3.

Users do NOT need to be a Vonage customer to use the app. However, as an added benefit to all app users, calls to Vonage home or business lines are also free. The Vonage Mobile app can be downloaded to any iPhone or Android device for free; and it also works on the iPad®, iPod Touch® and Android™ Tablets.

For more information on Vonage Mobile, please go to iTunes, Android Market or www.vonagemobile.com.

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From: zax2/15/2012 10:07:04 AM
   of 130
 
Vonage To Crank Up Spending In 2012; Investors Not Happy
Eric Savitz, Forbes Staff

forbes.com

Vonage shares are trading sharply lower Wednesday morning following the company’s Q4 earnings report, which included a warning that increased investment in the business will reduce its financial performance in 2012.

For the fourth quarter, the voice over IP telephony company posted revenue of $216 million, a hair below the Q3 level at $217 million, the year-ago quarter at $218 million and the Street consensus, also $218 million. Non-GAAP profits were 11 cents a share, in line with estimates. The company posted adjusted EBITDA in the quarter of $40 million. The company noted that this was the fifth consecutive quarter with EBITDA of $40 million or better – but that is about to end.

“”Now that we have stabilized our core business and are generating meaningful cash flow, we will accelerate our investment in strategic growth initiatives during 2012,” CEO Marc Lefar said in a statement. “While reducing adjusted EBITDA in the short term, we believe this investment will fund growth in mobile and geographic expansion. Even with this increased level of funding, we expect to further strengthen our cash position during the year.”

The company sees quarterly EBITDA in 2012 running in the $30 million to $35 million range, with annual EBITDA of $120 million to $140 million, which would be down from $168 million in 2011.

VG this morning is down 29 cents, or 10.6%, to $2.44.

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To: David T. Groves who wrote (121)4/9/2012 11:04:27 AM
From: zax
   of 130
 
Is VG seriously trading at a PE of 1.25 now?. Can this be correct?

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From: David T. Groves8/29/2012 5:28:57 PM
   of 130
 
Vonage is PROFITABLE, Generating huge FCF, moving forward. NOT going BK!!

Vonage is expanding into MOBILE, expanding OVERSEAS, creating new PARTNERSHIPS, developing NEW PRODUCTS and SERVICES, and was granted three new patents in the last two months!

Vonage now has more Cash than Debt.

Vonage has announced a share buyback plan.

Here are the 6 main comparison ratios, shown at most stock sites, ON ONE PAGE, With 19 other telcos, enabling investors to compare against it's competition , some telcos, and others in it's own sector!

ONE position, as the most undervalued, could be a fluke, THREE a coincidence. BUT SIX?

The most Undervalued in ALL SIX?

1.) EV/EBIDTA
2.) PRICE/FCF
3.) PE
4.) FWD PE
5.) PEG
6.) PRICE/SALES

To see the details well on my screen, I zoom to 200%.

Vonage PPS is like a time bomb, waiting for the right catalyst, to explode.

Conmparison Values:
acronet.net

Spead the link far and wide!

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