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To: Elmer Phud who wrote (2522)1/8/2008 3:18:07 PM
From: Jim McMannis
   of 2581
 
LOL.
Let me know when Cherry Sanders is buying. Getting down to his range. I'll buy some.

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To: chipguy who wrote (2520)1/8/2008 5:22:04 PM
From: inex
   of 2581
 
Chipguy,

I am willing to admit that a technical person is capable of drawing the conclusions that both you and Ephud seem to have reached.

However, many times in AMD's past they have been in much worse a position than they are in now and they have survived.

My basic question to Ephud was why he felt that this time was different from the historical lows and why he changed his analysis of the stock.

When AMD was producing K6, they had virtually 0% server market, no discrete graphics, no chipsets and Intel had a better product at almost every price point, but, they didn't file for Chapter 11 then, and I'm of the opinion that that won't happen this time either. Historically speaking, this price point has always represented a great buying opportunity and the only thing that would change that IMHO is bankruptcy.

I believe it will be a dog fight from here, but, I plan on averaging in each time AMD halves, so, my next buying point would be 3.50 if the stock gets there.

I don't recommend anyone bet the farm, but, if you've got a percentage of your portfolio set aside for potential flyers, then, it has never hurt anyone to buy at these historic lows...

Scott

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To: inex who wrote (2524)1/8/2008 5:37:57 PM
From: Elmer Phud
   of 2581
 
Take a look at AMD's debt load for starters.

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To: inex who wrote (2524)1/8/2008 6:12:27 PM
From: chipguy
   of 2581
 
However, many times in AMD's past they have been in much worse a position than they are in now and they have survived.

What does that have to do with Intel having significantly lower
processed wafer cost than AMD at 65 nm?

AMD has indeed survived bad times in the past. Nevertheless
Intel makes billions in profit each year while AMD over its entire
lifetime hasn't made a single net dollar.

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To: chipguy who wrote (2526)1/8/2008 6:45:11 PM
From: Elmer Phud
   of 2581
 
AMD over its entire lifetime hasn't made a single net dollar.

They've even blown the original cash infusion from when they went public.

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To: Elmer Phud who wrote (2527)1/8/2008 7:57:18 PM
From: inex
   of 2581
 
Again, Ephud,

AMD taking on debt is old news... been doing that since the beginning of the company... Not making any money is old news... ditto above...

None of this has prevented the stock from making some of the most volatile up and down movements of any stock on the NYSE.

When the stock hit $3/share in 2002, many thought THAT was the end. But that didn't stop the stock from shooting above $40/share...

The doomsday prognosticators have always been just as dead wrong as the "AMD to $1000" crowd. I, for one, hope you are wrong, but, I'm also hoping that you don't have a net short position based upon your views...

I would also have to say that it shouldn't be very long before we will be proven right or wrong... I think by September, we'll know what's going to happen...

Scott

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To: inex who wrote (2528)1/8/2008 8:45:00 PM
From: Elmer Phud
   of 2581
 
Well Scott you've been a good sport and I wish you luck. I hope that was speculative money you used.

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To: inex who wrote (2524)1/8/2008 8:52:21 PM
From: TimF
   of 2581
 

I don't think AMD is going under either, and you accurately point out a bunch of ways that AMD is better off now than they where during bad times before, but AMD does have higher costs and debt than in the past.

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To: Elmer Phud who wrote (2529)1/8/2008 9:16:59 PM
From: inex
   of 2581
 
I hope that was speculative money you used.

Thanks, Ephud... It was... One would have to be crazy to invest in AMD with anything BUT speculative money.. :)

Scott

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To: TimF who wrote (2530)1/8/2008 9:42:30 PM
From: inex
   of 2581
 
Tim,

but AMD does have higher costs and debt than in the past.

It would be interesting to do an analysis of AMD's debt/revenue ratio historically to determine if AMD's higher debt is simply more a function of AMD being a bigger company or whether in relative terms, they have high debt... When I get a little time, I'll report back on this...

Also, Tim, its odd that very few factor in the potential distraction that integrating ATI into the company might have been to overall execution... It would be naive to believe that a company the size of AMD could digest a company the size of ATI without some indigestion. I'm not going to claim that this severely effected execution, but, wouldn't it make sense that some AMD engineers got pulled from some projects in order to work on some Fusion and other GPU/CPU projects???

Well, I've got more, but, that's about all the spouting I'm going to do on the subject...

Bottom line is that I see AMD in the short term filling the role that they filled pre Opteron, and, in the long term, having spurts of successes that will cause the stock to shoot up periodically much like it has historically...


Scott

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