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To: Elmer Phud who wrote (2517)1/8/2008 1:21:39 PM
From: TimF
   of 2581
 
if they admit to "below 0.5cm2" you can interpret that to mean worse than 0.5d/cm2.

I wouldn't interpret it as worse than .5, but it probably does mean worse than .4

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To: Elmer Phud who wrote (2515)1/8/2008 1:24:16 PM
From: Jim McMannis
   of 2581
 
WTG Hector!

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To: inex who wrote (2516)1/8/2008 1:29:41 PM
From: chipguy
   of 2581
 
What proof have you that Intel's 65nm process on 300mm wafers is cheaper to produce than that of AMD???


Intel's process uses bulk instead of SOI, fewer metal layers,
and is produced at much higher economy of scale than AMD's.

Any of these three factors introduce a very high probability
that Intel has significantly lower cost per processed 65 nm
wafer than AMD. Taken together and it is almost a certainty.

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To: TimF who wrote (2518)1/8/2008 2:07:42 PM
From: Elmer Phud
   of 2581
 
I wouldn't interpret it as worse than .5, but it probably does mean worse than .4

You give AMD more credibility than they deserve IMO, but .4d/cm2 is still very poor yield. Nevertheless, our friend here did stick his neck out and commit a large sum of money. I wish him luck.

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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (2519)1/8/2008 2:09:46 PM
From: Elmer Phud
   of 2581
 
You still long AMD?

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To: Elmer Phud who wrote (2522)1/8/2008 3:18:07 PM
From: Jim McMannis
   of 2581
 
LOL.
Let me know when Cherry Sanders is buying. Getting down to his range. I'll buy some.

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To: chipguy who wrote (2520)1/8/2008 5:22:04 PM
From: inex
   of 2581
 
Chipguy,

I am willing to admit that a technical person is capable of drawing the conclusions that both you and Ephud seem to have reached.

However, many times in AMD's past they have been in much worse a position than they are in now and they have survived.

My basic question to Ephud was why he felt that this time was different from the historical lows and why he changed his analysis of the stock.

When AMD was producing K6, they had virtually 0% server market, no discrete graphics, no chipsets and Intel had a better product at almost every price point, but, they didn't file for Chapter 11 then, and I'm of the opinion that that won't happen this time either. Historically speaking, this price point has always represented a great buying opportunity and the only thing that would change that IMHO is bankruptcy.

I believe it will be a dog fight from here, but, I plan on averaging in each time AMD halves, so, my next buying point would be 3.50 if the stock gets there.

I don't recommend anyone bet the farm, but, if you've got a percentage of your portfolio set aside for potential flyers, then, it has never hurt anyone to buy at these historic lows...

Scott

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To: inex who wrote (2524)1/8/2008 5:37:57 PM
From: Elmer Phud
   of 2581
 
Take a look at AMD's debt load for starters.

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To: inex who wrote (2524)1/8/2008 6:12:27 PM
From: chipguy
   of 2581
 
However, many times in AMD's past they have been in much worse a position than they are in now and they have survived.

What does that have to do with Intel having significantly lower
processed wafer cost than AMD at 65 nm?

AMD has indeed survived bad times in the past. Nevertheless
Intel makes billions in profit each year while AMD over its entire
lifetime hasn't made a single net dollar.

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To: chipguy who wrote (2526)1/8/2008 6:45:11 PM
From: Elmer Phud
   of 2581
 
AMD over its entire lifetime hasn't made a single net dollar.

They've even blown the original cash infusion from when they went public.

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