STX looking very interesting with the IV pricing in now - wish I had waited! Stock above some of my entries which are even so under water. This is more of a fundamental play than most of my trading. Bob Marcin, one of the best value investors first highlighted this on Cramer's site in low to mid teens. I missed it and was waiting for comeback when it exploded to mid 20's. I got involved lightly in lower end of mid 20's. There are now 2-3 players in industry only. And while SSDs are coming on strong, their costs are still an order of magnitude higher. With the cloud, HDDs are in high demand, and with only 2-3 guys, pricing and volumes should be more stable. STX trades at 3-4x earnings, signalling the market expects dramatic drops in profits as WDC gets its volumes back. WDC was signalling expected pricing pressure to be upcoming in its earnings call, but hard to see it getting very intense.
Weeklies also interesting here given the high IVs.
Keith can chime in but he has posted elsewhere about this one too.
Jon |