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To: The Ox who wrote (285)	4/13/2010 8:45:40 AM
From: Rob Preuss	of 309

The Street . COM =========== For companies like Cisco(CSCO), VMware(VMW) and EMC(EMC), and Aviat Networks(AVNW), smartphones will likely equal dollar signs in the very near future. == Aviat Networks Stock price: $6.62 12-month stock performance: Up 50% Wireless specialist Aviat recently told TheStreet that smartphones and next-generation networks are helping drive its business. Among its portfolio of products, Aviat provides managed network services, which aim to ease the pressure on services providers' infrastructures. With a limited amount of spectrum available for wireless services, firms in the telecom sector are looking for ways to boost bandwidth and data services -- ideally without breaking the bank. Network Operations Centers, or NOCS, are key to this effort. RIM, for example, uses its own NOCs to maintain high service levels for BlackBerry users, and Motorola(MOT) has also been ramping up its NOC efforts. Creating a NOC from scratch, however, is something that most companies would rather avoid says Matt Thornton, an analyst at Avian Securities. "You're not going to build out your own NOC because it's massively capital intensive," he told TheStreet. With its own NOC in North Carolina, Aviat says that it can offload the burden of operating and managing service provider networks, something that could prove crucial in the smartphone explosion.

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To: Michael Young who wrote (281)	4/13/2010 8:54:33 AM
From: Rob Preuss	of 309

Aviat Networks Selects Aptilo to Enable BSNL WiMAX Deployments in India Aptilo Solution Preserves Existing OSS/BSS Infrastructure While Enabling New WiMAX Services finance.yahoo.com TAIPEI, TAIWAN--(Marketwire - 04/13/10) - WIMAX FORUM CONGRESS ASIA -- Aptilo Networks, the global leader in integrated solutions for control of billing, user services and access in wireless networks including WiMAX™ and Wi-Fi, and Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW - News), a leading wireless expert in advanced IP network migration, announced today that Aviat Networks has selected Aptilo's award-winning WiMAX solutions to enable their installation with Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL), India's National telecom backbone and state-owned telecom operator. This is the first announced project in a strategic partnership between Aviat Networks and Aptilo. Aviat Networks has selected Aptilo as the preferred WiMAX AAA and service control vendor for its BSNL WiMAX deployments. Aviat Network's deployment with BSNL is the first commercial, urban mobile WiMAX 16e network in India, starting in the state of Kerala with a population of more than 35 million people in an area of 38,000 square kilometers. This mobile WiMAX rollout by BSNL will represent one of the largest deployments of this technology in the world and is expected to provide wireless broadband connectivity with speeds up to 7 Mbps. Aviat Networks is using the Aptilo WiMAX AAA+ Server™ together with the new Aptilo WiMAX Connector™ functionality, a plug-and-play solution that allows operators to deploy WiMAX while utilizing existing broadband OSS/BSS infrastructure that does not natively handle WiMAX. The Aptilo WiMAX Connector dynamically maps the subscriber services described in the existing OSS/BSS into WiMAX 16e service flows required by the ASN gateway. It also allows BSNL to use their existing subscriber sign-up, provisioning, billing and other processes with the new WiMAX service, minimizing capital/operating expenses on new processes, training staff, and maintaining and operating new OSS/BSS equipment. "Aptilo's solution helped us preserve BSNL's previous infrastructure investments by seamlessly integrating with our Wireless Services Gateway (WSG) and WiMAX CSN elements, thereby allowing us to roll out a full mobile WiMAX solution quickly and efficiently," said Raj Kumar, Vice President, Asia-Pac Sales and Service, Aviat Networks. "From our experience, Aptilo's innovative solutions help operators build business in today's changing telecommunications landscape." Fast Time-to-Market, Time-to-Revenue The Aptilo WiMAX Connector provides operators with a simplified installation, for fast time-to-market and time-to-revenue. For BSNL, the WiMAX network in Kerala was the last installed yet the first to launch commercially -- this is due to the flexibility in the Aptilo WiMAX AAA+ Server and the WiMAX Connector's less intrusive integration with 3rd party vendors. Additionally, BSNL can now use the same solution from Aviat Networks and Aptilo to expand to new WiMAX markets. "Aptilo helps operators build their business quickly, with fast time-to-revenue," said Torbjorn Ward, Chief Executive Officer, Aptilo Networks. "We are proud to be working with Aviat Networks, the leader in wireless mobile broadband solutions, in helping to enable this important, large-scale WiMAX deployment with BSNL as well as future installations." For more information, visit Aptilo Networks a stand 12 at WiMAX Forum Congress Asia. About Aptilo Networks Aptilo Networks is the global leader in integrated management solutions for control of billing, user services and access in WiMAX™ and Wi-Fi networks. Selected by premier business partners such as Cisco and HP, Aptilo has become the provider of choice for service providers, enterprises and municipalities in need of a rapidly deployable, scalable multi-service solution to easily manage data and voice services over these networks. From smaller installations to large carrier networks, Aptilo's solutions have been deployed in more than 45 countries. For more information, please visit www.aptilo.com. About Aviat Networks, Inc. Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), previously known as Harris Stratex Networks, is a leading wireless expert in advanced IP network migration, building the foundation for the 4G/LTE broadband future. We offer best-of-breed transformational wireless solutions, including LTE-ready microwave backhaul, WiMAX access and a complete portfolio of essential service options that enable wireless public and private telecommunications operators to deliver advanced data, voice and video and mobility services around the world. Aviat is agile and adaptive to anticipate what's coming to help our customers make the right choices, and our products and services are designed for flexible evolution, no matter what the future brings. With global reach and local presence on the ground we work by the side of our customers, allowing them to quickly and cost effectively seize new market and service opportunities, while managing migration toward an all- IP future. For more information, please visit www.aviatnetworks.com. "WiMAX Forum" is a registered trademark of the WiMAX Forum. "WiMAX," the WiMAX Forum logo, "WiMAX Forum Certified," and the WiMAX Forum Certified logo are trademarks of the WiMAX Forum. All other trademarks are the properties of their respective owners. ==== ==== Aptilo Launches WiMAX Connector for "Plug-and-Play" WiMAX With Non-WiMAX Networks Preserves Existing OSS/BSS Infrastructure While Enabling WiMAX finance.yahoo.com Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), a leading wireless expert in advanced IP network migration, is the first Aptilo partner to deploy the WiMAX Connector. Aviat is using the solution with Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL), India's National telecom backbone and state-owned telecom operator.

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To: The Ox who wrote (296)	5/7/2010 4:16:14 AM
From: Rob Preuss	of 309

Share price fell 21.49% today, on volume exceeding 2.75 million, following yesterday's release of quarterly financial data. The closing price was $4.75/sh, down $1.30/sh from the previous day's close which itself was down substantially from the previous few days. In recent weeks the share price was hovering near $7/sh and had closed at $7.35/sh on 26 April 2010. That's quite a dramatic plunge. With $140 million in cash and 59.66 million shares outstanding, the company has over $2.30/sh in cash. At today's closing price, the market is valuing the rest of the company at only $2.45/sh. As I see it, the key problem is that AVNW has not shown an ability to grow their top line. Sales are hovering at about $120 million/quarter when they should be at least $150 million/quarter and growing robustly. While there may be problems with "revenue recognition", these problems are not sufficiently large to explain the low revenue numbers. The problem, it would seem, is simply that they are not winning enough business. AVNW's excuse-du-jour is that their "Tier 1" customers are spending very cautiously right now. Everything one hears about heavy spending on wireless backhaul equipment must be from all those "Tier 2" and "Tier 3" players. I'm not sure why AVNW doesn't just sell equipment to those "Tier 2" and "Tier 3" players as well. Are they even trying to compete for this business? One key issue is the old vendor-financing conundrum. Some of AVNW's bigger competitors are able and willing to undertake the risk of providing loans to customers in order to sell equipment. In an environment where traditional banks are unwilling to provide such loans, AVNW cannot (and should not) undertake such a risky strategy. Maybe its true that those "Tier 2" and "Tier 3" players are the only customers who are spending heavily right now... and these weaker players just can't get bank financing. If that's the only issue, then things are okay because those "Tier 1" customers will eventually start buying and/or bank credit will eventually start to flow... AVNW will just have to suffer a little while longer. But I'm worried that there is more to this than vendor-financing. I'm worried that AVNW products are not sufficiently more desirable than competing products. I wish I had greater insight into the bidding for specific contracts and could see why AVNW is not winning more business. Importantly, AVNW must constantly innovate and stay ahead of its competition. While I desperately hope AVNW has some hot new products in development (products that offer a substantially better value proposition), I worry that their competition may catch up with them. In any case, it looks as if the current quarter will again come in with something like $120 million in revenue. Barring any pleasant surprises, we'll have to wait until Q3CY10 before we can hope for quarterly revenue approaching $150 million. Such hope might be buoyed by the great "internet tsunami" which is supposed to create huge demand for backhaul equipment. I still believe this market demand exists, but now I'm worrying whether the orders will flow to AVNW or to its competitors.

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To: Rob Preuss who wrote (298)	5/7/2010 11:48:40 AM
From: The Ox	of 309

I am very, very disappointed with their performance. Sales for the 9 months in 2010 have fallen to $362Mil from $544Mil (a drop of 33%), yet R+D plus SG+A expenses have basically stayed the same. Absolutely awful, imo. As a percentage of revenue, their operating expenses have gone up from under 25% last year to over 33% this year. Many mergers have serious difficulties the first few years and it looks to this observer that AVNW has not found the synergies they expected. If they expecting business to boom in a few quarters, then this may explain why these numbers look so lousy right now. The most aggressive estimates are for 23% revenue growth next year. They will need to see this type of improvement or they will need to lower their operating costs substantially, as I see it.

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To: The Ox who wrote (299)	5/7/2010 3:00:46 PM
From: Rob Preuss	of 309

Perhaps we can take solace in the misfortunes of our smaller competitors... NOTE: Dragonwave has 36.25 million shares outstanding whereas Aviat Networks has about 60 million shares outstanding. == UPDATE 1-DragonWave stock falls on worry over key customer Fri May 7, 2010 2:42pm EDT * Issues forecast for one quarter, not customary full year * Sees $50 mln in Q1 sales vs expectations of $56-$57 mln * Concern that demand from Clearwire slowing * Stock falls to C$6.30 on TSX, 20-month low By Susan Taylor OTTAWA, May 7 (Reuters) - Shares of Canadian telecoms equipment maker DragonWave Inc (DWI.TO) DRWI.N tumbled more than 20 percent on Friday after it forecast revenue figures that sparked worries about waning demand from its marquee customer. The one-time market darling, whose stock was worth more than C$14 just four months ago, was the second-biggest loser on a percentage basis on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and Nasdaq on Friday. DragonWave lost about C$65 million ($62.5 million) in market capitalization as its stock sank to C$6.37 in Toronto and $6.13 on Nasdaq on concern that orders from U.S. carrier Clearwire Corp (CLWR.O), its biggest customer, were coming to an end and won't be replaced by orders from new customers. "That's the raging debate in the stock: Can they do it quick enough? What does their trajectory look like?" said Avian Securities analyst Matt Thornton. "That's really the name of the game, to try and quickly ramp up the other side of the business. It's just very difficult when you've got one customer that's so large, relative to anything else you have in your pipeline." DragonWave, whose microwave radio systems move voice and data between cell phone towers and phone companies' networks, reported its fourth-quarter results after the market close on Thursday. They showed a record 87 percent of the company's revenue in the quarter came from Clearwire, which is expanding its U.S. communications network to reach a target population of 120 million people by the end of 2010. The results were in line with analysts' estimates, but in the report DragonWave forecast sales for just one quarter ahead rather than the typical full year. It estimated first-quarter sales at $50 million, which trails the $56 million to $57 million analysts expected. DragonWave is switching to reporting in U.S. dollars starting in its first quarter. "What's giving people concern is Clearwire may be getting ready to roll off or slow down. And so the question will be just how does the company navigate if there is a change in pace of activity at Clearwire?" said Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette. Clearwire's contribution to DragonWave's fourth-quarter sales was C$55.3 million, a 21 percent increase over the third quarter. Sales from other customers fell 15 percent to C$8.6 million. "These customer concentration situations seldom work out well," said Dundee Securities analyst Tom Astle in a note. The fourth quarter could represent a sales peak for some time, he said. DragonWave has won some new customers -- including new entrants to the Canadian wireless market Globalive and Quebecor's (QBRa.TO) Videotron -- but analysts worry about the pace of growth. There has been speculation that DragonWave could supply equipment for network expansions planned by big U.S. carriers AT&T and Verizon, though several analysts said it looks unlikely. "Most of the activity that Verizon and AT&T are doing right now to improve their network backhaul capacity is being done in metro areas and that's using a lot of fiber," Faucette said. "The question is how much and how soon might they start to upgrade their more suburban and rural segments of their network? And in those cases that's where microwave could be introduced." Several analysts cut their share-price targets for Ottawa-based DragonWave on Friday. Dundee Securities chopped its 12-month target to C$8.50 from C$14.50 and downgraded the stock to "neutral high risk" from a "buy" rating. National Bank Financial cut its target to C$10 from C$14 and Canaccord Adams cut its target to $11 from C$17. ($1=$1.04 Canadian) (Reporting by Susan Taylor; editing by Peter Galloway) == I wonder if AVNW has an opportunity to pick up some of this Clearwire business that Dragonwave appears to be losing? I never understood why tiny Dragonwave got this Clearwire business in the first place... can anyone here tell me? Rob

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