Strategies & Market Trends | Fundamental Value Investing


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To: bruwin who wrote (1746)4/26/2012 4:50:40 PM
From: The Ox1 Recommendation   of 3034
 
MOD is like a lot of companies here in the US. They were a bit too slow to react to the downturn that started in 2008 and they have paid the price. By 2010 their top line was down over 30%.

I have them on a watch list and I think that at some point (and we may be near that now) it will be a solid investment going forward. I'm in the camp that feels its a bit too early to buy into companies like MOD. I want to see better forward guidance. I wouldn't mind seeing other investors step into the stock first and a clean reversal in the stock chart.

I agree with your assessment, bruwin and I think you are right on target with your analysis. Having said this, its important to be open to the fact that those are trailing numbers and the future may hold better things for them. Their industries have been hard hit over the past few years, trucking/auto, AC/heating, construction, etc... They have done a very decent job of adjusting to the current environment and for them to be profitable at this stage, shows me their commitment to the future.

I will assume your main concern is similar to the market's, how well can they translate their future income to the bottom line. As you pointed out very nicely, they aren't doing it just yet.

My 2 cents, fwiw.

TO

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To: The Ox who wrote (1754)4/27/2012 3:36:05 AM
From: bruwin1 Recommendation   of 3034
 
Always good to hear from you, TO. It’s been a while.

Yes, as you say, studying a company’s financials is, to a large extent, looking at past performance, but it does show us what’s currently happening in several critical areas of the business, especially with regard to debt and return on capital and how much Revenue is left over at the Bottom Line.

Of course, a more in depth interrogation of the company’s position in its market and other related aspects, is also needed to try and determine its future prospects. No doubt you’ve spent a lot of time and effort doing just that, which is probably why MOD is on your watch list. As you said, ” They have done a very decent job of adjusting to the current environment and for them to be profitable at this stage, shows me their commitment to the future.”

That could tie in with my observation that several financial ratios, such as those related to debt expense and return on capital, have shown improvement in the last 12 months.

….. and your contributions are always worth a lot more than “2 cents” !!

Best wishes, and keep enjoying your “semi-retirement” as you get “younger every day”!! {:-)

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To: bruwin who wrote (1751)4/29/2012 7:39:08 PM
From: Spekulatius   of 3034
 
Bruwin, are you sure about the net earnings > 20% of revenues? That seems like an extremely high hurdle to take, no industrial or consumer good company will be able to make that. The only business that comes close to 20% post tax profitability in some cases, are pharmaceuticals and ironically that is one business that WEB rarely invested in (with the exception of Sanofi).

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (1756)4/29/2012 9:51:45 PM
From: Sergio H1 Recommendation   of 3034
 
I'm sure he meant Net Income to Total Revenue must be greater than 20% and not Net Earnings.

BTW , WEB reduced the ratio to 10% for undiscovered companies.

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (1756)4/30/2012 2:43:39 PM
From: bruwin2 Recommendations   of 3034
 
Hi there Clownbuck.

I just want to make sure I’m following your question, ”are you sure about the net earnings > 20% of revenues”, correctly, because Sergio H appears to think that your reference to “net earnings” may not be the same as “Net Income”.
If that’s the case then below is a copy of a scan of one of the pages of Mary Buffett and David Clark’s book, “Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements” ...



... on page 25 the authors refer to the Bottom Line of the Income Statement as “Net Earnings” and I used their reference in my summary.

On the other hand, if your question referred to the most unlikely event that an industrial type company could ever achieve a Net Income (or Bottom Line) > 20% of Revenue, then I’d go along with the contention that it’s certainly not an easy target to achieve, but there again, it does happen.

Below are two of Buffett’s favoured companies, Coca Cola and Johnson and Johnson.
Over the last 5 year’s worth of Annual Results, KO exceeded the 20% ratio on 3 occasions, while JNJ beat it on 2 occasions.

KO. 2010 :- 11809/35119 = 33.6%. 2009 :- 6824/30990 = 22.0%. 2007 :- 5981/28857 = 20.7%

JNJ. 2010 :- 13334/61587 = 21.6%. 2008 :- 12949/63747 = 20.3%.

According to the research of the above authors, Buffett (and Munger) are primarily interested in finding companies that have Durable Competitive Advantage, and it is generally these category of companies that show “a net earnings (or Net Income) history of more than 20% on total revenues”, as referred to on page 61 of their book.

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To: bruwin who wrote (1755)5/2/2012 6:34:27 PM
From: The Ox   of 3034
 
Thanks, and all is well on this end. I sure hope the same is true in your neck of the world!!

I saw this article and since EBIX was one of the companies, I thought I'd post the link here.

The Forbes Fast Tech 25
forbes.com 

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To: The Ox who wrote (1759)5/3/2012 5:00:12 AM
From: bruwin   of 3034
 
"I sure hope the same is true in your neck of the world!!"

Yes, thanks TO, all is, currently, well in this neck of the woods.
And thanks, also, for bringing that EBIX reference to my attention.

Those are pretty good figures in terms of past Sales (3 years) and potential future Earnings growth of 32% and 20% respectively.

I have EBIX on one of my watch lists that I keep at Finviz. After its dramatic fall off in March last year, when it went from about $30 to about $14, it started a fairly steady recovery.
I got back into the stock, with a more modest amount than previously, at about $19 towards the end of November last year. Its price continued to improve to hit about $27 and then tested its support/resistance level of about $21.
After rising to, and meeting resistance at, about $24 it moved sideways for a while.
I decided to take some profit at around $23, so I now have about 50% of what I bought at $19.

Now I’ve had a look at the last 4 Quarterlies of EBIX and the Top Line Revenue for the last 12 months is $169.1mil. The total EBITDA for that period is $76.3mil. which gives an excellent EBITDA Margin of about 45%.
In addition, the total Pre-tax Income for that period is $73.4mil., and the current Capital Employed of the company is $361.4mil. That gives a Pre-tax Inc./Cap. Emp. ratio of 20.3%, which I’d say is pretty good.

One of the “contentious” issues surrounding EBIX has been the relatively small amount of tax that the company pays and reports.
If we take that Pre-tax income figure of $73.4mil. and deduct, say, 35% for tax we are left with $47.7mil. Now that would give EBIX a Net Income Margin of 47.7/169.1 = 28% for the last 12 months. By Buffett’s “standard” that’s a very good number !!

Should be interesting to see where EBIX goes from here. I’ll be keeping my finger on the button as it seems, currently, to be finding support at about $20 !!

Best wishes ….

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To: Sergio H who wrote (1749)5/8/2012 8:40:22 AM
From: Bocor   of 3034
 
some insider buying in EMR:

BUSCH AUGUST, Director bought $497,928.99 worth of stock on 5/7/12.

prontosec.com 

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To: bruwin who wrote (1743)5/13/2012 9:21:53 AM
From: bruwin1 Recommendation   of 3034
 
It's just over a month since my last posting of the "Sergio H" and "Buffett Portfolio".

It seems that both have fallen back a bit over the intervening period, Sergio H by 3.7% and Buffett's by a lesser 1.8%.

Not surprisingly we've seen a large fall in JPM's performance, based, to a certain extent no doubt, on their latest, rather embarrassing revelations regarding their $2BILLION trading loss !
CAT have also fallen from 40.2% to 26.5%, as have UTX from 14.2% to 8.0% and AA from -0.8% to -5.9%.
Major gainers were TRV from 20.2% to 31.9% and current leader DIS from 35.9% to 43.7%.

In the Buffett Portfolio the major decliner was GCI which fell from a previous gain of 54.2% to its current 39.1%.
Stocks that have improved by reasonable amounts are IR up by 8.2% and KO up by 5.9%.
USG continues to improve to show an overall gain of 150.4% in just over 7 months !



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To: bruwin who wrote (1762)5/20/2012 3:14:25 PM
From: Sergio H   of 3034
 
Bruwin, here's my real portfolio, averaging somewhere in between the two that you are monitoring but with more components and more reliance on dividends:

finance.yahoo.com 

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