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From: bruwin4/1/2012 11:23:50 AM
   of 3096
 
I see Jurgis said the following ....

"I decided to sell all my positions and put 100% of my money into SWSH. I think it is sure thing that will go to sky during spring cleaning season."

Well, he said it on the 1st. of April, so one wonders if the relevance of that date has anything to do with his declaration.

On the other hand, IMO, Jurgis does his homework well when he decides to invest.

But SWSH doesn't appear to be starting off on a good fundamental footing, ....

Bottom Line Losses in the last 4 Quarters.
Bottom Line Loss in its last Annual, where this loss was over 27% of its Gross Revenue.
Loss at their EBITDA level, indicating that their running expenses, plus whatever they need to run their business, exceeds their incoming Revenue.

It will be interesting to see if the company’s future performance lives up to Jurgis's expectations after their Washington, Chinese and Latin American “cleanups”, ..... or maybe this is Jurgis "taking the mickey" !

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From: Hawkmoon4/9/2012 1:20:06 AM
   of 3096
 
I have followed this thread for some time now, but not really contributed.

But I think I'm seeing a trend that favors the fundamental value investing approach in the monolines and insurers. I think the gov't is finally acknowledging that any economic recovery is going to require reducing the amount of gov't insured assets, and revitalizing the private insurance sector for manage risk.

It's still early, but it's my perception that with the number of delinquencies falling, as well as mortgage modifications, many of the insurers who had set aside billions in cash reserves for potential claims (taking huge hits to earnings in the process) are going to start migrating some off that cash back onto their operating balance sheets.

This should be accretive to earnings and book value.

Not sure how long it will take, but should be able to watch stocks like RDN, MTG, AGO, and MBI for clues.

Disclaimer: I hold RDN (which has a stated book value of nearly $8/share, currently trading under $4, with substantial insider buying).

Hawk

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From: bruwin4/10/2012 2:12:33 PM
   of 3096
 
I believe Rick Santorum is about to publicly announce his withdrawal from the Republican Party's nomination race.

So, undoubtedly, it will be Romney vs. Obama.
When that time comes, I wonder who Romney will choose as his running mate, .... and why.
Should be interesting ....

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From: bruwin4/10/2012 2:59:15 PM
   of 3096
 
Professor Laurence Kotlikoff, an economist, has entered the race for the US presidency.
He's called for reform of the tax, healthcare and social security systems.
Kotlikoff fervently dislikes both political parties and has called for a third party, which he hopes will save America.
He said he would seek the presidential nomination of the non-partisan advocacy group, Americans Elect.

He's often stated and written that America is bankrupt, "and we don't even know it" !!!

Here's some of what he's said ....

bloomberg.com 

He also believes that it will take a technocrat like himself to put forward viable solutions to the country's problems.

Something else that should provide some interest in the months ahead ....

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To: bruwin who wrote (1741)4/10/2012 3:05:16 PM
From: E_K_S1 Recommendation   of 3096
 
Hi Bruwin -

U.S. has no political will to make any of the proper reforms . . . The can will be kicked down to road like the EU solution.

Unfortunately, by the time something is done, it will be too late (IMO).

Goof luck Professor Kotlikoff.

The best thing for Romney is to get Ron Paul to run as his VP.

EKS

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To: bruwin who wrote (1735)4/11/2012 2:48:51 PM
From: bruwin   of 3096
 
Sergio H and Buffett Portfolio as of 5th. April, which is now 1 month older and has reached the half year stage.

Sergio H's portfolio has not moved much in the last month, but Buffett's is up at 14.9% compared to 13.25% as reported last month.

JPM has overtaken CAT at the top of Sergio H's 10 stock list, with AA and HPQ slightly in the red.

In Buffett's Portfolio USG, GCI and IR remain as the top three and in that order. No stock is currently in the red.
USG has really powered ahead in the last month from 117% to its current 148.4% !!
I'd say that's really Good Going !! Seems to indicate positive sentiment in the building materials sector and hopefully also in the building and property market.

If you held all 20 stocks in a Portfolio your capital gain for the 6 month period would be .....

((101.69+68.49)/(427.13+461.23))x100 = 19.16%.


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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (1739)4/14/2012 11:58:05 AM
From: bruwin   of 3096
 
Welcome to FVI Hawkmoon.
I'm pleased to see that you've decided to contribute, following your period of 'observing' !

I hope you're correct in your observations and belief that insurers are going to migrate more cash into their operating activities and so stimulate the economy, especially in the mortgage arena.

Unfortunately I'm not as familiar with the fundamentals of insurers and banks as I am with industrial type companies. So I look forward to you posting any clues you may ascertain within the financials of the likes of RDN, MTG, AGO and MBI, amongst others.

With regard to RDN, I see that their book value per share is over $8 at $8.87 and their latest P/E is very low at 1.6. In fact they may have the lowest positive P/E ratio in their 'Property & Casualty Insurance' sector. I got those numbers from the 'Financials' section at www.advfn.com.

Looking at their chart their current price of about $3.50 seems to be in an area of Support and Resistance. In the past the stock found Resistance at about $3.50 , and then also found Support at that level. It seems to be there at the moment. It will be interesting to see which way it goes from here.

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From: bmillermn4/16/2012 11:24:55 AM
   of 3096
 
How does MOD look to you?...it's been beaten down and the fundamentals don't look that bad to me.

Thanks.

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To: bmillermn who wrote (1745)4/17/2012 2:21:05 PM
From: bruwin   of 3096
 
Good to hear from you again, bmillermn. One never knows when you'll suddenly make an appearance !! (:-)

With regard to your request regarding MOD, I’ve had a look with regard to several ratios that I prefer a company to meet or exceed in terms of their percentage ratios. I looked at MOD’s last Annual financial statements (2011/03) and then also at their last 12 months results in terms of their last Q3, Q2, Q1 and Q4(2011/03) quarterly results ......

ANNUAL RESULTS (2011/03) :-

EBITDA/Revenue ratio = 7.08%. Too low for me

Interest Expense/EBITDA = 32.85%. Very high.

Pretax Income/Capital Employed = 2.12%. Far too low for me.

12 MONTH’S RESULTS :-

EBITDA/Revenue ratio = 7.01%. Too low for me

Interest Expense/EBITDA = 11.43%. Borderline high.

Pretax Income/Capital Employed = 5.84%. Far too low for me.

So, for me it’s not a company that I would want to invest in at the current time as these ratios are not where I’d like them to be.

However, a positive is the fact that the company’s debt expense is currently eroding far less of its revenue than it had been doing nearly a year ago.
In addition, although its Pretax Return on Capital is still very low, it has at least more than doubled in the last 9 months.

Therefore if you still have shares in the company, it may be an idea to hold on until MOD’s next Quarterly and Annual Results are published sometime in June this year, based on previous release dates. If MOD continues to show improvement, then this could very likely be reflected in its forward share price.

Of course, there's more to a company's evaluation than just a selection of critical financial ratios. I’m sure you’re better informed than I am regarding MOD’s position in its market and its share of that market, as well as the quality of its management.

That, coupled with the current improvement in its financials, may help you decide what to do about your investment in MOD.

Best wishes .....

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From: iambo4/21/2012 4:29:23 AM
   of 3096
 

Hi,

I am new to investing. I asked this on another post, but I read in a book that:
Intrinsic value= present value of residual value + sum of present discounted value + cash and cash equiv. - debt
Do you guys agree with this general equation and have any general comments on intrinsic value?


Thanks.

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