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To: Investor2 who wrote (78)	5/3/2012 11:18:14 AM
From: Kirk ©	of 210

My Defense of ECRI on another board. readmsg.aspx?msgid=28122126 Feel free to share it with others. =========================================================================== "Personally I don't think there's any point in thinking up reasons or excuses for them, they were simply dead wrong and made a terrible call that was was very damaging to those who believed in them." Actually, I disagree. I follow their indicators VERY CLOSELY and am friends with Lakshman. Look at my chart of WLI vs GDP at ECRI's WLI Moves Higher; Q1 GDP Positive Due To Deficit Spending It peaked early last year and they predicted a slowdown about a year ago near the top in 2011 BEFORE a 22% bear market. See: Two Bear Markets Missed in Half a Decade for my calculation and graph showing we just exited a 2011 bear market. Check out the chart here June 3, 2011 " ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Falls Again; Economy to Slow Further in Coming Months" This is where they predicted a slowdown... the S&P was near its 2011 highs... My own personal and professional portfolios are within spitting distance of RECORD ALL TIME HIGHS. (They hit all time highs before the recent pullback.) I can't say using ECRI data has hurt me at all and I think it has helped me avoid the sharks telling people to be fully invested at the tops who had no ammo to buy the declines. BTW, just because the statistics don't show high unemployment, the phrase is "you haven't seen nothing yet" is correct if you look at -> how many college graduates are moving back in with parents because they can't find jobs, how -> how many workers in their 40s and 50s were let go and replaced by younger, cheaper to insure and willing to work at 1/3 lower pay at one of the largest employers in the country... BANKS! -> how many illegals have left CA or stopped coming here since there is no work. -> how many kids don't even graduate high school... not sure if they ever enter the work force. It is a national disgrace, even if a good percentage are here only because their parents are illegals who came her to have kids to get a free education. Without massive deficit spending to be paid by the generations that will follow us... we'd be in a depression U.S. Borrows 53.7 Cents Of Every Dollar Spent In March So... maybe YOU took a look at their great record of success at the wrong time and got too bearish on stocks MONTHS AFTER they predicted a slowdown? That is not what their advice is for. It is for institutions and people looking to start new businesses. I don't think last fall was a great time to start a new business... and the large companies are returning cash to shareholders rather than invest in jobs and growth as they agree with ECRI... so their share prices are going up but not due to great economic growth.

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