Wow! it's been a while since I posted on SI. I see a lot of the high post count members from a few years ago are gone. And what happened to the housing crash thread? Nothing about housing that I can see.
Anyway thinking back on housing I think the factors I outlined here that might lead to a 20 year bear market in real-estate are playing out nicely:
 Message 22226215
I don't think you comprehended my post(s). The baby boom demographic bubble justifies the price appreciation up to about 2005, but as the boomers retire and die, we should see housing decline (in relative terms) and long rates rise. While, timing is always difficult to predict, and one cannot predict whether other factors might compensate, we could be at the start of a 20-year bear market in housing due entirely to demographic shifts. 3-3-2006
What I clearly did not appreciate at the time was the amount of outright fraud that developed as a result of the over-expansion of the secondary mortgage market. That led directly to the bubble seen after 2004. From my perspective you can lay all of the blame on the federal government's involvement and promotion of this market. And there's enough recently published academic literature to insure that the government's role in this will not be forgotten.
And, as is typical, the pendulum has swung way to the other side. With current housing investors finding it difficult to bring income from the future, i.e. borrow, to purchase long lived assets. It really is a tragic comedy when viewed from afar. Not so much if you part on the wrong side of the bubble. |
