Politics | Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse


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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (13476)4/30/2012 10:11:19 AM
From: T L Comiskey   of 14949
 
Imagine If the Mississippi and Ohio...

were to be of ..Wise Use..

why not NOW....???

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To: T L Comiskey who wrote (13477)4/30/2012 11:51:40 AM
From: Wharf Rat   of 14949
 
"why not NOW....???"

Where do they flow?
Red States).
That's why.

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From: Wharf Rat5/1/2012 9:56:31 AM
   of 14949
 
An update on global net oil exports: Is it midnight on the Titanic?

by Jeffrey J. Brown



I will be delivering the next webinar, Thursday afternoon. Art Berman will be delivering a webinar on May 17th, covering the shale oil plays in the US. For more info, go to http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/aspo-usa-webinar-series/

My thesis is that US oil industry continues to make a serious mistake by providing, in my opinion, wildly unrealistic scenarios for US and global crude oil production. For example, ExxonMobil has run ads stating that we won’t see a global production peak for decades to come, while Daniel Yergin tells us that the worst case is an “Undulating Plateau” many decades from now.

Unfortunately, since global annual crude oil production has been flat to down since 2005, the “Undulating Plateau” seems to arrived slightly ahead of schedule.

Global annual (Brent) crude oil prices doubled from $55 in 2005 to $111 in 2011, an average rate of increase of one percent per month, although actual prices have of course been above and below this trend line. The available production data over this time frame, from the EIA and BP, show that global crude oil production and global total petroleum liquids production have been virtually flat, with a slight increase in total liquids production of about 0.5%/year (inclusive of low net energy biofuels).

A study of the top 33 net oil exporters in the world, which account for 99% plus of total global net exports, and which we define as Global Net Exports of oil (GNE), shows that GNE fell from 46 mbpd (million barrels per day) in 2005 to 43 mbpd in 2010 (BP & minor EIA data, total petroleum liquids).

Furthermore, China and India (“Chindia”) have been consuming an increasing share of this declining volume of GNE. At the 2005 to 2010 rate of increase in Chindia’s combined net oil imports as a percentage of GNE, the Chindia region alone would consume 100% of GNE by the year 2030, 18 years from now. I define Available Net Exports (ANE) as GNE less the Chindia region’s combined net oil imports. Following is a link to a chart showing the 2002 to 2010 ANE numbers, along with where we would have been in 2010, at the 2002 to 2005 rate of increase in ANE.



While the US has shown a small increase in crude oil production, up from the pre-hurricane rate of 5.4 mbpd in 2004 to 5.7 mbpd in 2011, a net increase of 0.3 mbpd, this is virtually a rounding error in the context of the multimillion barrel per day declines that we have seen in GNE, especially the ongoing decline in the volume of GNE available to importers other than China and India, which dropped from 40 mbpd in 2005 to 35 mbpd in 2010.

And while it is certainly true that US net oil imports have declined, a significant contributor to the decline in net imports was a large decline in US consumption, which was down by 1.5 mbpd from 2004 to 2010 (EIA).

So, while slowly increasing US crude oil production is very important, the dominant trend we are seeing is that developed oil importing countries like the US are being gradually priced out of the global market for exported oil, as global oil prices doubled from 2005 to 2011, and as developing countries like the Chindia region consumed an increasing share of a declining volume of global net exports of oil. For more information, you can search for: Peak Oil Versus Peak Exports. [article at Energy Bulletin]

The Titanic hit the iceberg at 11:40 P.M. on the evening of April 14, 1912. At midnight, only a handful of people on the ship knew that it would sink, but that did not mean that the ship was not sinking. The Titanic’s pumps helped, but they could not fully offset the flow of seawater into the ship. In my opinion, slowly rising US crude oil production is to the ongoing decline in Global and Available Net Exports as the Titanic’s pumps were to the flood of incoming seawater.



From ASPO-USA Upcoming Webinars:


Thursday, April 26, 3:00 - 4:30 pm Eastern
Global Oil Exports: Smooth Sailing or Midnight on the Titanic?

Featuring Jeffrey J. Brown - Independent Petroleum Geologist, Creator of the Export Land Model, ASPO-USA Board Member

This session will review major trends regarding availability of oil exports on the world market, and the growing tension between oil production and rising internal demand of oil-producing nations as well as China, India, and other emerging economies. Key topics to be addressed include:


  • Review of fundamental export trends and projections for demand growth in oil-producing and developing countries.
  • Critical discussion of export data in the context of overall constraints for world oil supply.
  • Projected timing for reaching critical impasses in the world oil export market.
  • Analysis and discussion of potential scenarios

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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (13479)5/1/2012 9:58:34 AM
From: Wharf Rat   of 14949
 
The peak oil crisis: the quantum fusion hypothesis
by Tom Whipple
For nearly 25 years now, the idea that it might be possible to extract unlimited amounts of energy from the nucleus of a hydrogen atom at low temperatures has been pretty much in disrepute. When major laboratories were unable to detect nuclear reactions on their work benches back in 1989, the whole notion of what was then called "cold fusion" was debunked as junk science and for most remains so to this day. Fortunately however, a few scientists kept plugging away on just how one could get heat from the nucleus of a hydrogen atom. Now their efforts seem to be paying off. In recent months numerous respected scientists have been reporting at scientific gatherings that they are seeing increasing amounts of heat, which can only be coming from nuclear reactions, during experiments with hydrogen loaded into nickel and palladium under the proper conditions.

There have been so many of these reports by reliable and respected scientists that it has become absurd to claim that the phenomenon is fraudulent or that all these scientists are mistaken in their observations. Currently there are at least six different organizations around the world saying they have a commercially useful heat-producing device under development which they will be demonstrating soon.

To the comfort of skeptics, most of these organizations have been very circumspect in releasing details of their devices and the physics behind them. There are, of course several reasons for this reticence. Some may hope to keep their heat-producing secret as long as possible in hopes of making money from their discovery. More likely, however, is that while they have developed a way to produce heat, they really don't understand the physics underlying their device.

This situation however seems to be changing following a lengthy interview with a fellow out in Berkeley, California by the name of Robert Godes of Brillouin Energy. He has been working in this field for the last ten years and says that he not only has a reliable heat-producing device, but also understands the physics behind it – which he calls the Quantum Fusion Hypothesis. He says that this theory of just how low-energy nuclear reactions work has allowed the development of a device which produces heat immediately and reliably. Most interestingly, Godes says he has shared his insights with scientists at the Los Alamos Nuclear Laboratories and SRI International, one of the leading US laboratories investigating the phenomenon. He says that both have verified that his theory does indeed work and that they can now produce heat from hydrogen every time they try.

Godes' hypothesis is interesting for those with even a smattering of physics in their background. First of all, he holds that the heat which is coming from infusing hydrogen into nickel or palladium is not coming from "cold fusion" in the classic sense of the term. It is not a deuterium fusing with deuterium reaction as takes place in the sun or H-bombs and which requires extremely high energies.

What seems to be happening in this new kind of fusion is that when hydrogen is "loaded" into nickel or palladium and subjected to the proper kind of an electromagnetic pulse, the hydrogen nucleus which is a positively charged proton acquires an electron which turns it into a low energy free neutron. Now a low energy free neutron is something very nice to have for it quickly combines with other protons to form deuterium, tritium and finally quadrium. The quadrium only lasts for an instant before undergoing a process called beta decay turning it into helium. This is where Einstein and E = MC2 comes in. The beta decay of quadrium results in a loss of mass which is turned into heat. If all this pans out as claimed, it could be one of the most important secrets of nature that has ever been discovered, for our energy problems are over.

This new hypothesis, it is not yet a theory, says that It would be possible to use water as the source of all energy that mankind could ever want with no bad or radioactive leftovers -- only helium and heat. Note that Godes says that if the reaction is done properly, the nickel or palladium which are only used as a matrix to hold the hydrogen in one place, are not consumed in the reaction. For those who are skeptical, and I don't blame you for this a lot to comprehend, I recommend Brillouin's web site ( www.brillouinenergy.com) where you will find some reasonably comprehensible explanations and videos as to just how all this supposedly works. For those conversant with Bose-Einstein condensates, the Molecular Hamiltonian, Heisenberg confinement energy, and the dense mathematics of nuclear physics there are papers there for you too.

So what happens now? There is so much misunderstanding and skepticism about this phenomenon during the last 20 years, it is likely that the mainstream media will not touch the story until some highly respected institution rolls out a machine that is too hot to touch, will run for months without any visible source of power, and will belch fire and brimstone on command.

Much to its credit, the first thing that Brillouin Energy says it is going to do with its new technology is to build a prototype boiler using its new heat source that would eventually replace the ones currently burning coal in our power stations. This is clearly a brilliant idea for swapping out old coal fired boilers for ones that run on a few cups of water would be a no-brainer for the world's electricity industry – provided of course they can be made to work reliably.

Brillouin Energy says they have a contract with SRI International to design and build a prototype of what they call a "Hot Tube" boiler. If the concept works well Brillouin would license the technology to the world's boiler makers who presumably would work overtime replacing every fossil fuel fired boiler on the face of the earth. And that is just the start.

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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (13480)5/1/2012 10:00:49 AM
From: Wharf Rat   of 14949
 
Can renewable energy sustain consumer societies?
by Samuel Alexander
A new report has just been published which ought to provoke a Copernican revolution in dominant conceptions of renewable energy and of sustainability more generally. The message may not be one that environmentalists want to hear, but it is one that we must all take very seriously, or risk having our good intentions dedicated to goals that cannot actually solve the very real environmental crises that we face.

Most people, including many environmentalists, seem to believe that Western-style consumer lifestyles can be sustained and even globalised, provided the world transitions to systems of renewable energy and produces goods more cleanly and efficiently. This assumption is reflected especially clearly in political discussion on environmental issues, which consistently pushes the message that we can grow our economies while reducing ecological impact. This view relies heavily on the expectation that renewable energy sources can be substituted for fossil fuels, but very little attention is given to the question of whether that expectation is realistic. Environmentalists want to believe it, but of course merely wanting something does not affect the laws of physics.

With little recognition, Dr. Ted Trainer has spent the best part of a decade tirelessly surveying the best available data on renewable energy and other technologies, and he has recently published the culmination of his efforts with the Simplicity Institute. Contradicting widely held assumptions, Trainer presents a formidable case that renewable energy and other ‘tech-fixes’ will be unable to sustain growth-based and energy-intensive consumer societies, with implications that are as profound as they will be unwelcome.

Trainer’s general point on technology is that the extent of ecological overshoot is already so great that technology alone will never be able to solve the ecological crises of our age, certainly not in a world based on economic growth and with a growing global population. The best-known advocate of technological solutions to ecological problems is probably Amory Lovins, most famous for his ‘factor four’ thesis. He argues that if we exploit technology we could have four times the economic output without increasing environmental impact (or maintain current economic output and reduce environmental impact by a factor of four).

In response Trainer points out that if the rich economies grow at 3% until 2070, and by that stage the poorest nations have attained similarly high living standards – which seems to be the aim of the global development agenda – total world economic output and impact could be 60 times larger than it is today. If we assume that sustainability requires that fossil fuel use and other resource consumption must be half of what they are today (and the greenhouse problem would probably require a far larger reduction than this), then what is needed is something like a factor 120 reduction in the per unit impact of GDP, not merely a factor 4 reduction.

Even allowing for some uncertainty in these calculations, the claim that technological solutions can solve the ecological crises and sustain limitless economic growth is simply not credible. Trainer has shown that the necessary reductions in ecological impact that are just beyond what is remotely possible. The final nail in the coffin of techno-optimists is the fact that despite decades of extraordinary technological advance, the overall ecological impact of the global economy is still increasing, making even a factor four reduction through technological advance seem wildly optimistic.

Trainer has also levelled a narrower critique of technological solutions, which focuses on renewable energy. This is not the place to review in detail Trainer’s arguments and research, which would be a laborious task given the meticulous and necessarily dry nature of his analysis of the evidence. For the facts and figures, readers are referred to Trainer’s latest essay. But the critical findings of his technical research can be easily summarised. After examining the evidence on varieties of solar, wind, biomass, hydrogen, etc., as well as energy storage systems, Trainer concludes that the figures just do not support what almost everyone assumes; that is to say, they do not support the argument that renewable energy can sustain consumer societies.

This is because the enormous quantities of electricity and oil required by consumer societies today simply cannot be converted to any mixture of renewable energy sources, each of which suffer from various limitations arising out of such things as intermittency of supply, storage problems, resource limitations (e.g. rare metals, land for biomass competing with food production, etc.), and inefficiency issues. Ultimately, however, the cost is the fundamental issue at play here. Trainer provides evidence showing that existing attempts to price the transition to systems of renewable energy are wildly understated.

This challenging conclusion, however, only defines the magnitude of the present problem. If we were to commit ourselves to providing nine or ten billion people with the energy resources currently demanded by those in the richest parts of the world, then the problems and costs become greater by orders of magnitude. The challenges are exacerbated further by the existence of the “rebound effect,” a phenomenon that often negates the expected energy use reductions of efficiency improvements. At times efficiency improvements can even be the catalyst for increased energy consumption, a phenomenon known as the “Jevons” paradox. Going directly against the grain of mainstream thinking on these issues, Trainer is led to conclude that renewable energy and efficiency improvements will never be able to sustain growth-based, consumer societies, primarily because it would be quite unaffordable to do so.

It is of the utmost importance to emphasise that this is not an argument against renewable energy; nor is it an argument more broadly against the use of appropriate technologies to achieve efficiency improvements. Trainer argues without reservation that the world must transition to full dependence on systems of renewable energy without delay and exploit appropriate technology wherever possible. We cannot afford not to! But given the limitations and expense of renewable energy systems, any transition to a just and sustainable world requires a vastly reduced demand for energy compared to what is common in the developed regions of the world today, and this necessitates giving up growth-based, consumer societies and the energy-intensive lifestyles they support and promote.

The implications of this can hardly be exaggerated. It means that the global consumer class must learn how to live ‘simpler lives’ of reduced resource and energy consumption, as well as build new economic systems based on notions of sufficiency rather than excess. But as I have argued elsewhere, this does not need to sound so depressing. A growing number of people are seeing the hollowness of consumer culture and are finding a new abundance in oppositional lifestyles of voluntary simplicity. The necessary cultural shift obviously requires a radical change in worldview, and it is difficult to be optimistic that the necessary changes will ever arrive. But as Lao Tzu once said: ‘Those who know they have enough are rich,’ which also suggests that those who have enough, but who do not know it, are poor.

The choice is ours, if only we choose it.

Dr. Samuel Alexander is co-director of the Simplicity Institute and a lecturer in ‘Consumerism and Sustainability’ at the Office for Environmental Programs, University of Melbourne. The Simplicity Institute has recently published Ted Trainer’s new report on renewable energy, which is freely available at: http://www.SimplicityInstitute.org/publications. To join others exploring the practice and politics of the ‘simple life,’ please sign up to the Simplicity Collective.

You can download a copy of the 22-page report (pdf) here.

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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (13481)5/1/2012 10:02:03 AM
From: Wharf Rat   of 14949
 
It pays to stay home
by Gene Logsdon


One of the unsung advantages of being in love with a garden or a farm is that the lover doesn’t mind staying home and by doing so, saving gobs of money. In fact most of us land lovers much prefer to stay home. A back forty even as small as an acre can be an exciting, fascinating adventure into the farthest reaches of the earth. The great entomologist, Jean Henri Fabre, spent much of his life making amazing discoveries about bugs on the few brushy acres behind his house and writing about them. With 30 acres, I never want for a changing world to travel through, a journey not far in miles but almost infinite in terms of material wonders and splendors deep down into the earth and high up into the ever-changing beauty of the sky.

Staying home has to be one of the most unpopular ideas in America where the whole culture embraces faraway travel as essential to happiness. Many of us don’t really have homes that can provide as much enjoyment as travel promises. Rather than spending our money to acquire such a property, we are taught to buy such enjoyment with far away travel. Perhaps what we need is proper publicity. To advertise traveling at home, a documentary could open with unbelievable close-ups of ants herding and milking aphids on an apple tree, a raccoon destroying a bluebird house, a hawk dive-bombing a mouse, a flint arrowhead sticking out of a creek-side cliff. Then a roll of drums and a voice sonorously introduces the docudrama: “Today we are going where no explorer has gone before— YOUR BACK FORTY.”

Also, in earlier times, a home could not electronically provide all the connections with the outer world that now make travel almost obsolete. You can visit just about everything now in your living room. It may be true that nothing beats seeing a tourist attraction in person, but today you can get really close-up and intimate sights and insights into such attractions on the Internet without being strip-searched. Just this Sunday, my dear friend, Wendell Berry, was speaking in the National Cathedral in Washington D.C. and will be receiving at the John F. Kennedy Center today (Monday), as I write this, the National Endowment For The Humanities Award, the highest honor given by the government in this field. I was able to watch and listen to him from our living room, closer and more vividly on our computer screen than if I had been there in the audience.

Another advantage of being a farmer, if not a gardener, is that you can often use your work as an excuse not to attend meetings and social affairs you do not want to attend anyway. We used to have big, loud family gatherings at my grandparents’ house on holidays. Along about four o’clock in the afternoon, I would assume my standard, long-suffering countenance and with a sigh say that I had to go home and milk the cows. Everyone understood. The cows had to be milked. Poor Gene. Poor Gene would then shuffle, downcast, out the door but with a big inward smile. At least I knew the cows were not going to get in an argument over politics.

Another time, not so many years ago, I politely declined an invitation to give a speech faraway. I hate to give speeches and am not very good at it anyway. The fellow who was inviting me protested. “You aren’t going to give me that guff about how airplanes are environmentally destructive, are you?” he said. “That plane is going to fly here whether you are on it or not.”

“I can’t come because we will be lambing at that time,” I said, which happened to be the truth.

“Oh!” he said, much more contritely. “I understand.”

Even pulling lambs has its advantages.
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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (13482)5/1/2012 10:03:36 AM
From: Wharf Rat   of 14949
 
Renewable power rhythm: The rhythm of power availability in the post-prosperous way down world
by David Tilley
Dr. H.T. Odum and his wife Betty spent much of their careers developing thoughts on what became the book, A Prosperous Way Down (PWD). Others, like Richard Heinberg, have been successful at bringing the seriousness and reality of a PWD to a larger audience. There is a small and growing amount of thinking and talking about doomsday or armageddon scenarios that many think will prevail as fossil fuels become scarce.



Hunger Games Capitol City (Collins, Ross, Lionsgate) http://thecapitoltour.pn/


National Geographic has given us the TV reality program Doomsday Preppers. Its presence and popularity reflects the public’s perception that change is on its way. I think the success and impetus for Suzanne Collins’ Hunger Games is a response to the reality of a PWD. Rather than cover what the way down will be like in this post, I wanted to share my thoughts on what one important aspect of life might be like once we reach “down”. That is, the time after decline is finished, when the fossil fuels are gone and society is running almost completely on renewably sourced energies. I explore how peoples’ behaviors may change once they are driven by flow-limited energy sources rather than storage-driven sources in the post carbon world? Flow-limited sources cannot be controlled and stored easily so society will be more effective if it adapts to the rhythm and availability of energy.



US Emergy Consumption 1790-2000 (Tilley, 2006) (link at end of article)


The flow-limited energies that will be available will come mainly from wind, rivers, biomass and a little from solar voltaic. Life during the storage-driven era of fossil-fuels lead society to be able to control the availability of energy. People could consume energy by flipping switches and turning ignition keys. Energy was available when people wanted it. This convenience lead society away from the temporal constraints that were present before the industrial, fossil-fueled age. In the pre-industrial period, most work would need to be accomplished during daylight because that was when light was



US Emergy Consumption 1790-2000 Renewable Fraction (Tilley, 2006)


available to see. A farmer’s life was tied intimately to the rhythms of the day and seasons. The industrial period’s electric lights allowed factories to operate at night and cars to be driven in the dark. Today, homes equipped with electricity in the developed world rarely experience the inconvenience of no electric power, except during the occasional storm. There was little rhythm to the use of energy in the industrial age that was driven by the availability of energy. Certainly there were cycles to the consumption of power that were tied to large scale phenomena like world wars and global depressions. Also, there were global politics that affected the short term (i.e., a few years) availability of oil, but never were natural forces at work to drive the rhythm of the consumption of energy.

In the post-PWD, when energy is derived almost exclusively from wind, rivers, and biomass, humanity’s consumption of energy will be tied to the natural, global cycles of the Earth’s planetary, energy-transforming systems. The availability of wind is intermittent with periods of high, medium and low intensity. Rain and snowfall that feeds rivers and reservoirs, and drives the productivity of crops is cyclical. El Nino/La Nina is one of the better-known global cycles whereby Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures drive rainfall and temperatures across continents. How will the rhythms of major flow-limited energy sources work together to determine how society organizes its major functions like food production, building construction, information processing, socializing, and travelling?



North Carolina Hydro-Electricity and Rainfall (Tilley, 2006)


The record of electricity production from hydro-dams in the North Carolina during the end of the 20th Century shows that power availability was directly tied to the amount of rainfall, which varied slightly (at right). During dry years, the amount of electricity available was lower than wet years. Monthly variability was likely present too, but suppressed by the large storage of the reservoirs. Thus the scale of the cycle was annual. Geographical locations appropriate for generating electricity from wind often experience seasonality in wind speeds, which directly affects electricity production. In North America wind speeds tend to be greater during the Winter than during the Summer. Also there are often periods of strong winds followed by periods of weak winds. The rhythm of wind has intra-annual, weekly and daily cycles. Power from biomass will be tied to rainfall patterns.

Electricity will remain to be available in the post-PWD, but its availability will have decadal, annual, monthly, weekly, daily and hourly rhythms. Large scale storage of electricity is difficult today and will likely be difficult in the post-PWD. The portion of society that continues to use electricity will need to adapt to these rhythms. When power is highly available, economic and social activities that rely upon electricity will ramp up quickly to dissipate the generosity of the planet and make needed goods and services. Conversely, when power is scarce, those same activities will be suppressed or shut-down.

I can imagine computing-based industries like banking, data-processing, and software programming, will need to arrange work schedules to coincide with the availability of power. Work will be fierce during excess power, but maybe non-existent when it is scant. Socializing that is computer based can also occur when extra power is temporarily available. Long-distance travel will be tied to those periods when extra biomass is produced to make liquid fuels.



Scuddy weather? "Windmill Near Zaandam" 1871 Claude Monet


Maybe the rhythm of the various energy sources will be asynchronous so that when wind-powered electricity is low, hydropower is plentiful. However, its more likely they may be synchronous, which means that peoples’ down time will need to be fulfilled with non-electric activities like listening to acoustic music or playing games and sports. If winds are highest during the winter, then biomass production and wind-power will be asynchronous, which would allow people to work in agriculture during the summer, but work in information-processing during the winter. The extra heat generated by the electrical devices would come in handy to keep indoor temperatures comfortable.

Solar photovoltaic technology will likely not play a large role in energy availability in the post-PWD due to its low energy return on energy invested. However, it will find highly specialized uses in space satellites and military actions.

Will major religions be able to adapt their teachings to reflect the need for society to adapt to the rhythms of flow-limited energies? Capitalist-Democracy has proven some ability to self-organize to adapt to energy availability during the last few centuries. Will they continue to adapt? How will government adapt to flow-limited, intermittent energies?

This post is only the beginning of a conversation on the adaptability of humanity to the rhythm’s of flow-limited, intermittent energies in the post-PWD world. I hope to see others respond to the idea. It is virgin intellectual territory. The future will not be like the past because we will have electricity. How will electricity be connected to human activities in the future, when it is rare and highly prized?

Tilley, D.R. (2006). National metabolism and communications technology development in the United States, 1790-2000. Environment and History, 12(2), 165-190.

David Tilley is associate professor at the University of Maryland.

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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (13483)5/1/2012 10:05:26 AM
From: Wharf Rat   of 14949
 
Questioning growth assumptions
by Mary Logan
A wide variety of blogposts roll across my Google Reader on a daily basis. There have been some great articles on Environmentalism lately, most notably one by Paul Kingsnorth in Orion magazine. The goal here is to add to that discussion by exposing the assumptions that underlie our beliefs about growth and to locate various groups on a continuum of growth beliefs.

Understanding the nature of our energy basis is critical to understanding where we are headed as a civilization. Unless people have received unusual education to break their conditioning to expect and desire growth, most people are so schooled and immersed in the growth story that they do not realize that there may be other possible futures, especially in the US where growth has been so consistent and rapid. In this period of global resource transition, peoples’ beliefs are separating into a growth continuum of three general belief systems or world views that inform our lives and trace a trajectory for our future. I have attempted to categorize some prominent growth-related groups below as examples of each category—with the qualifications that these categorizations are my opinion, and that a person in one group may host a range of beliefs, often contradictory! Some of the categorizations are self evident, with the group’s name as a description of where the group stands on the issue of growth. Other groups such as the Resilience Alliance are more obscure in their stance; perhaps so that they can provide a larger umbrella as a scientific group.


http://www.adbusters.org/spoofads /thought-control

  1. We will continue to grow, and we can maintain Business as Usual (BAU) into the foreseeable future because resources are infinite, or because our society has grown successfully for so long, or by leveraging technology. The growth premise of this group is either that market demand creates energy, or that technology is the same as power, or that money drives the economy rather than energy. This group consists of capitalists, economists, and resource extractors as exemplars who seek wealth and economic progress as a primary goal. This group also consists of most consumers, especially in the US where resource consumption is very high. Most consumers rarely think about growth issues; they have been conditioned to consider growth as a positive, natural and enduring part of reality. Perhaps some modern environmentalists who believe in sustainable development also reside here, as Kloor suggests, especially those who are pro-growth, pro-tech, pro-city, and pro-nuclear. Kathy McMahon further subdivides this category in a humorous post describing Panglossian Disorder.


  2. Nuclear Energy Institute Infographic--Nuclear Optimism regarding clean green energy?

  3. We must stop growing, but we can keep what we’ve got now

    http://www.upcolorado.com/book/A_Prosperous _Way_Down_Paper (Odum & Odum, 2001, p. 78)

    by making some Green changes in how we live by leveraging renewable energy using technology. The fundamental energetic premise here is that alternative fuel sources such as nuclear, wind and solar can replace fossil fuels. Another perspective of those in this category is a view of the pulsing cycle from a smaller scale of time that suggests that systems can be frozen at the climax phase of pulsing. Many in this group believe that there is room for both social justice and environmental justice. Steady Staters, Zero growth advocates, environmentalists, sustainability enthusiasts, and single-issue advocates such as climate change proponents reside here. The Resilience Alliance, with its emphasis on “retaining the same controls and function” in reaction to systemic change, is probably primarily in this category?


  4. Pulsing Succession (Odum, 2007, p. 56) http://cup.columbia.edu/book/978-0-231-12886-5/environment-power-and-society-for-the-twentyfirst-century

  5. Our economies will contract to match declines in resources, and we must adapt proactively if that decline is to be orderly. This group generally believes that the current economic/political system will need to be reorganized more locally in reaction to resource decline. The main premise for descent is an energetic systems perspective, including the concept of net energy/emergy. This category holds the belief that we will not be able to provide technological solutions for continued exponential growth or even for a steady state when resources are declining. Descent, Research & Degrowth, Permaculture, Transition, and the Prosperous Way Down groups have this world view. Perspectives on economic collapse vary within groups.



  6. There may even be a fourth, smaller, more extreme category, of those who believe that we should bring the current industrial economic extremes to a slower pace or a halt by actively slowing the flow of fossil fuels. Very few people fall into this category—I am one of them. Some in this small group worry about the environmental base for our diverse planet, and others take the position that a system in extreme overshoot is more likely to crash precipitously. Systems modeling shows us that the further our exponential growth carries us into overshoot, the more likely a complete or fast collapse becomes.
Where do you fit on the continuum above, and why do you hold these beliefs? The world views that we hold frame our beliefs and theories about how the world works. Our assumptions dictate who we can talk to, who we go silent with, and who we end up talking past. For example, when I hear an announcement for a talk with the word climate change in the title, I make an assumption that the content of the talk will be narrowly focused on market or geoengineering solutions within the framework of BAU, without an energetic systems framework. HT Odum was called an environmentalist occasionally, but he was wont to bristle up when that happened, suggesting that environmentalists were people who thought they could keep their entitled lifestyle while walling off a token, symbolic piece of nature as wilderness in recompense. People are slowly diffusing down the continuum, with more environmentalists such as Kingsnorth shifting away from green environmentalism towards descent/degrowth perspectives, and perhaps more consumers are becoming environmentalists, as they become disenchanted with the current economic/political state. I see that transition as a hopeful, positive shift in public opinion. Rogers (1962) suggests that diffusion of innovation requires that the new ideas be better than the old in terms of relative advantage, compatibility with an individual’s life, simplicity, trialability, and observability. As the economy worsens, politics becomes more extreme, and the corporation becomes more powerful, simple, frugal, cooperative living may become more advantageous, especially when the simple living behaviors are role modeled by peers. The Occupy Innovators are probably the first significantly large group of visible role models for this change for a complete shift in world views and behaviors.

It is important to question the assumptions that we make in order to identify with a certain world view. The answers to some of the questions below define what you believe, what you know, and where you stand on these issues of growth, energy, the environment, and the economy.

  • What is your belief about growth based on—which group do you fall into? Can we grow forever? If not, what is our limit? How long can we sustain our exponential rate of growth? Can our population be sustained or continue to grow, or must it contract?
  • If you belong ideologically to a group, does your group have distinct, stated beliefs about growth and energy, or are the beliefs implied?
  • Do you believe that resources are limited, and what is the role of technology in possible limits? Is technology the same as power? Is technology positive, or negative, or does technology have mixed benefits and problems? Are resources always used to the fullest extent possible? Can existing systems operate without continuous flow of energy?
  • If there is a universal tendency to entropy in the universe (the 2nd thermodynamic law), then why did our complex civilization occur? Is there a scientific principle that explains this emergence or self-organization?

  • http://www.emergysystems.org/emergy.php Odum, 1998

    Are there any systems that do not pulse? How do pulses at different scales of time, territory, and transformity affect growth patterns? Does our economic system pulse, and if so, how? This question is probably the most important question, and it deserves more discussion later. While we view civilization as consistently growing over time, if we expand the view through our macroscope to the larger scale, there have actually been many, many civilizations over time, rising and falling as they grow and descend over time. Is there a difference between the organization and behavior of individuals and communities in different phases of growth and contraction?
  • In order to fit within the natural hierarchy, natural systems are required to recycle everything and eventually stop growing—why is man different? What is the nature of feedback over time—what limits the growth of expanding systems?
  • What has allowed us to build densely urban metro areas in the last century? Is the footprint of a resident of Tokyo larger or smaller than a footprint of someone on a rural farm in Ohio, and why? Do cities need Nature in order to exist? If so, how much Nature do they need?
  • Can we understand and fix global problems with specialized science by breaking things down through analysis and then piecing them back together with policies?
  • Is there always somewhere where we can dispense with pollution—is the solution to pollution dilution? Will there always be a “there” to throw things away to? What about materials—when they are used what happens to them as they are used in a system, over time?
  • What is the relationship between efficiency and power? Is the effort to obtain different resources such as energy the same? How does that effort change over time?
  • How does energy differ at lower scales (photosynthesis?) versus higher, more complex scales (computers?) in terms of quality and quantity? How do different forms of energy interact? What is embodied in your laptop, and how do you value it? Is there any energy in a Tweet? How much energy is in an electric car, and how do you measure it?
  • What is complexity and how do we define it? What are the drivers of complexity, and how do we maintain it?
  • Money values our work and our wealth; if you woke up tomorrow and your paper money was worthless, would you value your work, your resources, and your life any differently? Mother Nature doesn’t deal in currencies; does she get a say in how we run things, and if so, how?

Mather Poster (anonymous, 1924)

No matter what your beliefs on these issues are, it is important to ask yourself these questions regarding energy in our growth-focused economy. How we view energy and growth is either a non-issue, or it is a political campaign issue, or it is the fundamental question for our time, depending on our perspectives, our understanding of systems, and the assumptions we make. These three or four potential futures are radically different from each other; the outcome will probably be dictated by thermodynamic laws. Understanding the pulsing, hierarchical nature of systems can help us to parse our future. And if you don’t like the category you’re in, perhaps it’s time to move your thumbtack further down the spectrum on the bulletin board of growth beliefs?
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Flex-Fuel Humans Posted by JoulesBurn on April 27, 2012 - 10:57am




This is a guest post by Tom Murphy. Tom is an associate professor of physics at the University of California, San Diego. This post originally appeared on Tom's blog Do the Math. If you’re one of those humans who actually eats food, like I am, then a non-negligible part of your energy allocation goes into food production. As an approximate rule-of-thumb, each kilocalorie ingested by Americans consumes 10 kilocalories of fossil fuel energy to plant, fertilize, harvest, transport, and prepare. The energy investment can easily exceed a person’s household energy usage—as is the case for me. But much like household energy, we control what we stick in our mouths, and can make energy-conscious choices that result in substantial reductions of energy consumption. I now call myself a flexitarian, a term acknowledging that my body is a flex-fuel vehicle, but also that I need not be rigid about my food choices in order to still make a substantial impact on the energy front.

An earlier post on how many miles per gallon a human gets while walking or biking touched on the fact that fossil fuels undergird our food supply. As a result, walking to the grocery store effectively uses as much fossil fuel as would a typical sedan. The lesson is not to walk less, but to change that 10:1 ratio for the better by eating more smartly. Once upon a time, we put less than one kilocalorie of energy into food production per kilocalorie obtained (or else we and our draft animals would have starved to death). So the 10:1 ratio is not at all inescapable, and depends strongly on the foods we choose to eat.



My Flex Transition Several years back, I engaged in a broad spectrum of energy reduction strategies. I had learned enough to know that our energy future was not likely to follow an ever-growing trajectory. The back-side of the fossil fuel age could bring with it challenges unimagined by our many-generation boom society. Technology can play an important role over the long term. But tech solutions generally do not hold a candle to voluntary reduction when it comes to having enormous short-term impacts. I was curious to know how life would be if I reduced energy use by something like a factor-of-two across-the-board. As a result, I not only have the personal satisfaction of knowing that it can be done without drastic changes in lifestyle, but I am also much better-prepared to adapt to a world where energy reduction may not be as much a choice as an imposition foisted on us by failing supply.

I had heard from multiple sources that eating meat carried a large energy tax, amounting to as much as 8× for beef, 5× for pork, and something like 2× for chicken and fish. I have not been able to track down this original source, but the sentiment was almost certainly correct if not the numerical factors. In any case, I switched to a primarily meat-free diet.

That’s not to say I don’t enjoy eating meat products. I personally have no ethical problems with eating meat, and still enjoy meat on special occasions or even by accident. I imagine many vegetarians feel sullied when a piece of beef slips into their otherwise vegetarian burrito. Not me. Meat treat! Accidental/unexpected bits of bacon happen surprisingly often, but do not go unappreciated. When I go to someone’s house for dinner, I’ll happily eat whatever is being served. On holidays I enjoy the traditional fare: Thanksgiving turkey (for which I am thankful), July 4th hot dog or hamburger, etc. And sometimes it can be hard to hew to the plan when traveling, so sometimes I switch over to meat when that’s the only reasonable option.

My approach is to not let my no-meat preferences become an undue impediment to myself or to others. When I have control over the situation, and have good vegetarian options available (almost always), I’ll go meatless. Otherwise I’ll go with the flow. One trick I’ve learned in meat-centric restaurants is that I can often order a few side dishes that result in generous portions at a lower price than a “normal” meal.

Being semi-quantitative about it, although based on questionable numbers, I figured that maybe I got a quarter of my food energy from meat, which probably averaged 4× the energy impact of vegetarian fare. Playing this game, let’s say that 75 units of energy went into my 75% vegetable-based diet, and another 100 units for the 25% meat portion. Going full-veggie would require 100 units rather than 175. So roughly speaking, I figured I was having about a factor-of-two impact. The occasional meat treat might constitute 1% of my dietary intake, and at 4× the impact, this turns 100 units of energy into 103 (99% vegetarian plus 4×1% meat). Not a big deal for the occasional deviation.

I have to admit that I have never been a big fan of vegetables themselves. But somehow I really like being a flexitarian. It feels like a responsible choice, and between pasta, bread, rice, beans, cereals, dairy products, and nuts, I do not spend my days feeling deprived of good things to eat. An alternate approach of moderation is to use meat as an accent, or garnish in a meal—constituting a very small portion of the caloric value.

An Aside About Protein Somewhere along the way, our culture developed something of a fixation on protein. It’s not as important to a healthy diet as many assume. In fact, read The China Study for a fascinating and compelling story recounting mountains of evidence to the contrary—especially exposing the deleterious effects of animal protein. It’s not hard to get plenty of protein from plant matter. You don’t really even have to be vigilant—rice and beans will do you well. Unless you’re a body builder or actively increasing muscle mass, maintaining your physique requires just 10% of your calories in protein form. Billions test the idea daily, without shriveling up from lack of protein.

Other Considerations Energy is not the only component to the story, even though it’s the one I focus on here. Livestock practices in the U.S. have become ever-more industrialized, packing animals into giant feedlots, raising chickens too top-heavy to walk properly, and feeding grains to naturally grass-eating cows resulting in chronic stomach pain. Genetic engineering, waste pools, rampant antibiotics, heavy water use, and wholly unnatural lives of animals all make the modern meat industry a twisted enterprise. Although it’s not a primary motivation for me, I am relieved to bear less personal responsibility for this mode of feeding ourselves.

Digging Deeper: Energetics of Food Choices Eventually, I felt I should learn more about the impacts my choices were having. Was I fooling myself? Was I making poor choices based on erroneous information? How reliable were these 8×, 5×, etc. factors? I was pretty sure that my diet was at least going in the right direction with regard to energy, but should I fine-tune it based on more solid analysis?

I ran across a fascinating work by Gidon Eshel and Pamela Martin that consolidates a variety of research inputs into an assessment of the energy requirements of various diets. Much of the data comes from a book edited by Pimentel and Pimentel called Food, Energy, and Society, which has seen editions in 1996, 2005, and 2008.

First, a few numbers to lay the groundwork. Excluding exports, the U.S. produces 3774 kcal of food energy per person in the U.S. Not all of this is eaten: 2100 kcal is a more typical diet. Yes, food is wasted in the U.S. The total share of national energy devoted to food production, distribution, and preparation ranges from 10% to 17%, depending on what is included in the summation (see Heller, DoE, and Horrigan references in the Eshel & Martin work referenced above, and this USDA report). Ignoring the household portion (refrigeration, cooking), food tends to end up consuming around 11% of our energy inputs. Using the handy—if not alarming—number that each American’s total energy share zips by at a rate of 10,000 W, this means 240 kWh/day is expended per person, so that food comes out to about 27 kWh/day per person in the U.S. Meanwhile, we typically metabolize 2100 kcal/day, which turns into 2.44 kWh/day. There’s our 10:1 ratio: put in 27 kWh of energy, eat 2.44 kWh in exchange. (We can also get to 10:1 quickly by realizing that 11% of 10,000 W is 1100 W, while the human metabolism runs at about 100 W.)

Next, the typical American diet is broken down (calorically) as 72% plant-based, 11.5% dairy, 9% red meat, 5% poultry, 1.5% eggs, and 1% fish, in round-ish numbers.

Now for the magic part. What is the output-to-input energy ratio for producing various types of food? The following table is excerpted from the Eshel & Martin paper, much of which derives from the Pimentel & Pimentel work. One caution: don’t take these numbers as absolutely authoritative. I suspect the uncertainties are quite large, but they nonetheless convey a general sense.

Even if the uncertainties are sizable, the obvious trend is that plants and grains tend to produce more energy than is contained in the fossil fuel inputs. These numbers are for U.S. production practices, and tend to be larger by factors of two or three when manual techniques are employed.

How can eggs cost more energy than the whole chicken? Well, how long must a chicken live and be fed before it produces the equivalent of its edible body weight in eggs? Apparently longer than it needs to live and be fed to find its way to the frying pan.

Having laid some groundwork, we can now have some fun imagining various diet scenarios and computing the production energy of each set of choices. Let’s use an energy factor of 2 as representative of plant-based food. Obviously then, a strict vegan (no animal products) can get by with only 1.2 kWh of fossil fuel investment to produce a day’s worth of food (2.4 kWh)—becoming 2.2 kWh if we allow the typical U.S. ratio of produced/consumed food. At present, we’re only talking about production and processing—later we’ll address other required energy inputs for distribution, refrigeration, preparation, etc.

Meanwhile, the typical American diet has a weighted energy expenditure of 0.72/2.0 (plant) + 0.115/0.206 (milk) + 0.09/0.05 (red meat) + 0.05/0.181 (chicken) + 0.015/0.112 (eggs) + 0.01/0.05 (fish), amounting to 3.3 times as much fossil energy as food energy. In case you are confused about where these numbers come from, the dietary fraction of any particular intake is in the numerator of each term (e.g., 11.5% from milk/dairy), and the factor of energy output/input is in the denominator (sometimes approximating a mix of inputs from the table). The vegan calculation by the same method is 1.0/2.0 (100% of food from plants, at a 2:1 output:input ratio), for a factor of 0.5×.

So from a pure production point of view, the vegan uses one-sixth the energy resources that the typical American does to grow/raise food. What about someone like me who has not given up dairy/eggs? I’m not replacing all of the normal 28% animal product with dairy/eggs: I make up a good deal of the difference via grains, etc. Let’s say that I am 15% dairy and 2% eggs, just for the sake of getting some numbers down. My math looks like 0.83/2.0 (plant) + 0.15/0.206 (dairy) + 0.02/0.112 (eggs) for a production energy requirement of 1.3 times the fossil fuel input. So I’m not below the magic 1:1, but more than a factor of two less than the typical diet. I would drop to 1.15× if giving up eggs, or all the way to 0.5× if I dropped all animal products.

The Rest of the Energy There is more to the food energy story than production and processing alone. We also have transportation (actually not that large), packaging, refrigeration, retail operations, and preparation. If the average American diet uses a production energy input that is 3.3 times the metabolic energy output of the food, and total energy inputs amount to ten times the metabolic energy, then production/processing accounts for one-third of the total expenditure. We’ll call the non-production aspects “overhead,” and assess this at 6.7 times the metabolic energy, so that the average American diet—consuming 3.3 times the metabolic energy for production—adds to the familiar 10× total.

If the overhead costs are the same for all types of food, then the vegan diet comes to 0.5× for production, plus 6.7× for overhead, in the end only managing to shave 30% off the energy requirements of the average American diet.

But this is likely not true. Vegan-friendly foods, for example, tend to require less packaging (see produce section of grocery store), and less refrigeration (grains, etc.). If we make a crude guess that vegan diets require half the energy in the overhead sectors, the net effect is 0.5× for production, plus 3.3× for overhead, amounting to about 40% as much energy going into food delivery as for the typical diet. It’s just a rough guess, but it looks like roughly a factor-of-two in any case.

The sort of diet I’m on (allowing eggs and dairy) will likely fall in between vegan and average American on the energy overhead front. If my diet requires 75% of the overhead that a typical diet would, then I’m at 1.3× for production, plus 5× for overhead. In this case, my diet choices result in 63% of the energy that the average American consumes. Given that I tend to waste little food, perhaps I am operating below 60% on the energy scale. I am less sure of the food being wasted on my account before it ever makes it to my hands: otherwise I would claim a bigger share of savings in this sector—after all, using 2100 out of every 3774 kcal corresponds to a 44% waste.

The Net Effect & Perspective Put in more familiar terms, we saw before that the food enterprise in the U.S. consumes 27 kWh/day per person—turning into about 75 kWh per household. Compare this to American household average daily consumption of 30 kWh of electricity (typically demanding ~90 kWh of thermal energy in power plants), 37 kWh of natural gas consumption, and 2.9 gallons of gasoline amounting to 105 kWh. Dietary choices can obviously have a sizable effect on our total energy budget.

As with many such adaptations, it is easy to make the claim that the change is too inconsequential to make a difference: that if the U.S. spends 10–15% on food practices, no game-changers are possible on the food front. “So I’ll keep eating beef, thank you very much.” In truth, our energy use is diverse, so game changers are only possible in across-the-board reduction strategies.

In other Do the Math posts, I have described cuts to our household energy amounting to about 20 kWh/day in natural gas, about 8 kWh/day in utility electricity (becomes > 20 kWh/day in source energy), and comparable cuts in gasoline use. Add to this the savings from two people each consuming 60% of the average 27 kWh of food energy, and our household saves another 22 kWh of energy per day. Clearly, our dietary choices represent a substantial component of our total energy reduction strategy.

Operating at about 60% of the typical food-energy allocation isn’t quite the factor-of two cut that I typically like to achieve, but it’s still pretty significant (and may in fact reach 50% given the large uncertainties in my crude calculation). I could go the vegan route and be more assured of making a factor-of-two difference, but this feels too restrictive given prevalent choices in today’s society. Plus, I have the unfortunate pleasure of being essentially a vegetarian who doesn’t actually like vegetables very much. It’s not as dire as it sounds: bread, beans, rice, pasta, polenta, etc. form the foundation of my diet, and I don’t struggle through life yearning for better.

Flexitarian Reflections I try to strike a balance: mindfulness without rigidity; disciplined minus judgment; sacrifice without dismal deprivation; flexibility without wanton rationalization.

The main idea is what a nerd-type might call establishing a low duty-cycle for eating energy-intensive foods. If 2% of my meals share the profile of an average American diet (about right for my habits), then my computed 63% energy impact turns into a trivially-different 64%. At one normal American diet day per week (14% duty-cycle), it would turn into a 68% impact. I like the “Meatless Monday” movement, but would like the inverted situation of “Meat Treat Monday” even more.

The numbers sketched above indicate that big reductions are not seriously jeopardized by the occasional allowance. The biggest impact stems from changing the “normal” behavior. Even though the numbers are a little fuzzy, the approximate magnitude (and direction) of the impact is obvious enough.

This is an evolving process for me. I would like to take a deeper look at the numbers, if I get the chance. I certainly no longer view tuna and chicken as equivalent. I may need to evaluate whether or not to drop eggs (small impact, given the small share of my diet), or whether to cut back on dairy products. Should I get some chickens and feed them scraps to get my eggs for “free”—in the process learning what it really means/takes to enjoy eggs? We’re growing vegetables this year. Should we expand this operation and try to get a greater fraction of our diet from home-grown food (assisted by my rainwater catchment system)?

I want to have a greater awareness of the energy cost of my food, and take a greater responsibility for the choices I make. A growing number of people are doing the same, and it will be very interesting to see where the movement leads.
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