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From: Frank	4/18/2005 9:47:33 PM
	of 89

The old maxims were out in force today on CNBC --I heard " It is not different this time" regarding OS stocks at least three times. Also "The cure for high prices is high prices" came around a couple of times as well -- and all heads nod gravely and knowingly. But have you looked at NG prices the last two years? Where is the cure old pals? -- and EIA just revised production expectations down with no rigs left. Methinks the old timers may be surprised as the NG world has changed and it is different this time. New kids on the block surprisingly shake up the status quo in the neighborhood. Fred L., Kyle Cooper and Jim Wicklund just got their butts kicked as the new kids moved in and didn't play stickball the traditional way -now these forlorn analysts stand in shocked silence watching the evolving game---Frank

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To: Frank who wrote (71)	4/18/2005 10:25:00 PM
From: gregor_us	of 89

Exactly Frank: Here's a Thought: What Doesn't Change is human behaviour, and tendencies. In other words, market participants will attempt to behave in the future, and, will percieve the future, as being almost a duplicate of the past. But while human behaviour is predictable, the world itself is always changing. Virtually nothing in the world is the same as it was 35 years ago wrt to Oil. Nothing. Not OPEC. Not Asia. Not the USA. And certainly not the supply of oil. Ahh. But Ned Riley "remembers" how it all turned out in the 70's, and so does Lee Raymond. You see? This is human nature to say the future will surely look alot like the past. But it doesn't. Not at all. What all these guys on CNBC really mean to say is that "we" have not changed. But they go too far. And they wind up saying the most ridiculous thing of all: That the world itself has not changed. LP

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