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 Coffee Shop | Hurricanes: Tracking and Economics

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To: redfish who wrote (4299)9/27/2005 11:39:49 AM
From: CalculatedRisk   of 13836
 
99L: Looks like TD soon.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
nhc.noaa.gov 

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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (4301)9/27/2005 12:31:40 PM
From: Jim McMannis   of 13836
 
Oh boy...we're not in the clear yet.

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To: Road Walker who wrote (4300)9/27/2005 12:48:50 PM
From: stockman_scott   of 13836
 
It seems like the Fort Myers / Naples area has avoided most of the severe hurricanes over the years...Is that just luck or it's position on the coast of Florida...?

-s2@JustWondering.com

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (4296)9/27/2005 1:04:23 PM
From: Skywatcher   of 13836
 
it goes into November in reality...Belize got hit hard in November twice already in the past few years....It ain't over yet

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From: Patricia Trinchero9/27/2005 1:20:53 PM
   of 13836
 
Kenneth will track close to Kuai but appears it will avoid a direct hit..........Ken is still a fair distance away so the track could get closer or further away by the time the storm passes Hawaii.

nrlmry.navy.mil 

I'd hate to see any of the islands get hammered.

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To: stockman_scott who wrote (4303)9/27/2005 2:34:56 PM
From: John Vosilla   of 13836
 
Probably just pure luck though no doubt the most vulnerable seem to be the Carolinas and gulf coast from Louisiana to Florida panhandle.

Anyone venture to guess which areas would be safest from hurricanes down here? Perhaps far NE Florida and Georgia coast along with west coast of Florida north of Tampa to the coast just south of Tallahassee?

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (4306)9/27/2005 2:49:29 PM
From: Triffin   of 13836
 
John ..

Move to Jacksonville ..

Here's data for all hurricanes 1900-1996

nhc.noaa.gov 

Triff ..

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From: Patricia Trinchero9/27/2005 4:47:26 PM
   of 13836
 
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 271502
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN
JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES
EAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


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To: stockman_scott who wrote (4303)9/27/2005 4:51:35 PM
From: Jim McMannis   of 13836
 
Donna went through just north of there in 1960. Then there was Charley and maybe a couple smaller ones inbetween.
I'd say luck more than position.

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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (4309)9/27/2005 5:06:44 PM
From: stockman_scott   of 13836
 
Naples' history with tropical systems

hurricanecity.com 

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