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 Coffee Shop | Hurricanes: Tracking and Economics

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (12672)8/25/2011 1:59:23 PM
From: Bill/WA   of 13942
 
Hi John,
I've been through Mt. Dora, have a high school mate that has a B&B there.
Thing is, between growing up here, outside all my life, childhood at the marina, adult as a contractor, my skin has gone to hell & sweated enough to fill a pool!
So if the weather is nice, I don't go outside & enjoy it unless I cover up completely, ergo, the sweat again.

Best,
Bill

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From: Ron8/25/2011 3:29:54 PM
1 Recommendation   of 13942
 
Good sized hurricane, Irene is now 510 miles in diameter
nasa.gov 

Tracking back west a little.

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From: Dale Baker8/25/2011 3:42:11 PM
   of 13942
 
McDonnell declares state of emergency in Va. ahead of hurricane


By Anita Kumar


Gov. Robert F. McDonnell (R) on Thursday declared a state of emergency in Virginia in preparation for Hurricane Irene, which is anticipated to bring wind and rain to parts of the state this weekend.

State officials said Virginia may see flooding from both rain and storm surges in the eastern part of the state. Winds could reach hurricane strength in Hampton Roads, though others areas further inland could see tropical force winds.

Eastern Virginia residents who live in low-lying areas should be ready to evacuate ahead of the storm, according to McDonnell’s office. The state will not reverse lanes on I-64.

A state of emergency is declared under Virginia law so that state resources can be made available.

“Over the last 24 hours, a number of weather models have shifted the forecasted track of Irene slightly to the west, increasing the potential for inclement weather and potentially dangerous conditions in portions of Virginia,’’ McDonnell said. “At this time, I encourage all Virginians to gather items they may need this weekend in case of power outages and disruptions in public services and to make sure their family members and friends are also prepared for this storm.”

State agencies are preparing in the following ways:

· The state has activated the Virginia Evacuation Coordination Team for Operational Response to assess the storm’s potential impact and to take necessary actions.

· The Virginia Emergency Operations Center is coordinating the state’s response with increased staffing available 24 hours a day.

· The Virginia State Police and Virginia State Police Swift Water Rescue Team is on stand by.

· Chainsaw crews from the Virginia Department of Forestry are ready to help with debris removal.

· Virginia Department of Transportation crews are preparing to clear roads.

· The Virginia National Guard has been authorized to bring personnel on state active duty.

· The Virginia Department of Health is coordinating with hospitals and long-term care facilities to ensure that they are prepared for storm impacts.

For general information about the storm, dial 211 and for information about preparing for the hurricane, visit www.vaemergency.gov.


By Anita Kumar | 11:20 AM ET, 08/25/2011

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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (12653)8/25/2011 5:12:01 PM
From: Road Walker1 Recommendation   of 13942
 
Irene looks like another hype job. Wouldn't be surprised if it misses the US all together.

More hype Jim....

Hurricane Irene Discussion Number 22
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2011
Share This 
  
the eye of Irene moved over Abaco Island earlier this afternoon. An
automated weather station on the island measured a minimum pressure
of 950.4 mb around 1700 UTC. The Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft investigating Irene this afternoon has reported a 700 mb
peak-flight wind of 99 kt. Although recent aircraft data do not
quite support the 100-kt advisory intensity...we will hold the
intensity for a little longer to see if the aircraft finds higher
winds.
Irene continues moving north-northwestward at about 12 kt. There has
been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Irene is forecast
to turn northward by early Friday as it moves through a break in
the subtropical ridge. After 24 hours...the hurricane is expected
to move on a heading between north and north-northeast as a trough
bypasses the cyclone to the north. This will leave the Irene in a
steering pattern that should keep the hurricane on that general
heading as it moves very near or over mid-Atlantic coast. The track
guidance has come into better agreement on this solution...and the
confidence in the track forecast is increasing. The new track has
been nudged westward and is close to the center of the guidance
envelope. It is also in good agreement with the 1200 UTC GFS. Since
Irene is a large tropical cyclone...one should not focus on the
exact track of Irene...as significant impacts will be felt well
away from the center.
 
There is still some time for Irene to strengthen as it will be
moving over warm water and the shear remains low.  However...the
updated forecast calls for a little lower intensity over
the first 24-36 hours.  In about 48 hours...southwesterly shear is
forecast to increase...which should start a weakening process.
However...since Irene has such a large and intense circulation...
it will probably be slow to weaken.   
 
 
Forecast positions and Max winds
 
init  25/2100z 27.0n  77.3w  100 kt 115 mph
 12h  26/0600z 28.7n  77.8w  100 kt 115 mph
 24h  26/1800z 30.6n  77.8w  105 kt 120 mph
 36h  27/0600z 32.5n  77.4w  100 kt 115 mph
 48h  27/1800z 34.5n  76.9w   95 kt 110 mph
 72h  28/1800z 39.8n  74.6w   75 kt  85 mph...inland
 96h  29/1800z 48.5n  68.0w   50 kt  60 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
120h  30/1800z 56.0n  54.0w   45 kt  50 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
 
$$
forecaster Brown
 

		

		View All Tropical Weather

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To: Road Walker who wrote (12677)8/25/2011 7:24:53 PM
From: Jim McMannis   of 13942
 
I used to live in Abaco, Bahamas. Right where Irene hit. The worst was Floyd. 200 mph gusts. Then we got Jeanne and Frances. This one probably the least of the bunch but a hard hit none the less. Plenty of friends there but I haven't heard from them yet since the power is out.

The original hype was for a florida hit.. These things usually shift east over time.

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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (12678)8/25/2011 7:33:41 PM
From: Road Walker   of 13942
 
The original hype was for a florida hit.. These things usually shift east over time.

Depends on your definition of "hype". And complacency. And being prepared. I know people who have been through hurricanes and it ruined their lives.

Hype? OK. Good hype? Maybe. Looks to be getting a lot stronger.

ssd.noaa.gov 

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To: Road Walker who wrote (12679)8/25/2011 7:47:45 PM
From: Jim McMannis   of 13942
 
Just because it's hyped doesn't mean it not dangerous. Every close storm is hyped these days. So there is no excuse for not preparing.

I remember when Andrew came in from the bahamas. They even had it hitting palm beach on some stations. Not near the hype we get now a days. Then again, it was only a full blown hurricane for a couple days before it hit south miami.

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To: Bill/WA who wrote (12663)8/26/2011 5:27:27 AM
From: Drygulch Dan   of 13942
 
My bought only spent two full years in SEFL, 2004 and 2005, nice choice, eh ?

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From: Travis_Bickle8/26/2011 8:46:42 AM
   of 13942
 
Looks like there won't be much left of Irene once she is through Carolina

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From: contangle8/26/2011 11:01:41 AM
   of 13942
 
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu 

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