Technology Stocks | INVX Innovex Comdex Winner !!


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To: Daveyk who wrote (1868)12/13/1997 12:04:00 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™   of 3029
 
Thanks dave..... at this point i think it's a bit over sold...in general...especially CSCO.... that was totally an emotional reaction...without knowledge.... at this point, it's an irrational exit...but saying so, doesn't mean it will stop.


Joel

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To: Art Baer who wrote (1870)12/13/1997 12:25:00 AM
From: bhuvanarama   of 3029
 
"However, I would not buy now because INVX shows no signs of
moving up. "

That applies to a lot of other strong tech companies.

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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (1871)12/13/1997 12:29:00 AM
From: maaad   of 3029
 
Who are INVX's true competitors?? HTCH is a competitor that has a different product. Are there any direct competitors.. or does INVX have a niche?

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To: Art Baer who wrote (1870)12/13/1997 12:31:00 AM
From: Dan Woodbury   of 3029
 
Obviously, we are now entering the bust half of the boom-bust cycle. One side of me would like INVX to quickly rebound, the other half is salivating at the possibility of the stock dropping lower - and getting so much cheaper.

Just as the greed can drive stock valuations sky high, fear can drive them into the ground. With so much uncertainty in the world economy, I doubt anyone can pinpoint what the true value of INVX's business is. Thus we have fear driving the stock lower and lower until a majority of investors steps in to buy shares. That could happen Monday morning at $19. It might not happen until December 31 at $14.

I do believe we will see irrational dumping of tech stocks in the next 3 weeks as investors take tax losses. Consequently, despite what the experts have said, we will have a January effect.

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To: Dan Woodbury who wrote (1874)12/13/1997 12:48:00 AM
From: maaad   of 3029
 
If INVX doesn't have a niche then its a commodity stock. With the current situation of this industry BV, or less might be where the price will bottom.

maaad

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To: Dan Woodbury who wrote (1874)12/13/1997 1:04:00 AM
From: Lonnie Yearwood   of 3029
 
Here's Motley Fool's take on today's drop:

Innovex is one of the few stocks in the world trading at 7 times earnings estimates while having 24% net profit margins. Geesh! At some point the market will see the value of this company as slightly higher than the value of your typical low-margin disk drive maker, the stocks of which are selling at these low multiples and perhaps for good reason.

Innovex was chosen for the Fool Port in part because it has such incredible margins and because it sells product to nearly all of the drive makers -- owning 70% of its market -- and it isn't a drive maker itself. It suffers a slowdown when they do, but not with as much consequence. The company hasn't had to cut prices and hurt margins as the drive makers are often forced to do, and it has still shown strong growth year-over-year. The stock lost $3 on Friday on confirmation that drive makers are lowering orders from other companies and perhaps on the Quantum news from the day before (Quantum is one of the three largest drive makers in the world and expects lower earnings in part due to drive prices, and is a major customer of Innovex); and perhaps it fell because about two-thirds of Innovex's sales are made in Asia.

We don't think that companies are going to stop buying lead-wires that cost a few quarters apiece, though, especially when they're needed in order for a disk drive to work. It's difficult for Innovex to grow at a pace slower than the drive industry, which -- when the disk drive competitors aren't stuffing the drive channel to the hilt at their own peril -- grows with the computer industry, for the most part. Earnings estimates have been lowered consecutively as the expected growth in the drive industry has continued to slow since we bought the stock, however, and now analysts expect Innovex to grow earnings about 10% in fiscal 1998, rather than 20%. Innovex has stated that it still expects to grow 20%, though.

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To: Lonnie Yearwood who wrote (1876)12/13/1997 12:17:00 PM
From: jermoney   of 3029
 
Lonnie thanks for great post, it helped my perspective. I do think Jan. will uplifting. There
has to be a lot of $ looking for a good place to go. There are also very good posts on the QNTM
thread concerning the DD and tech. industries.
Good luck jerry

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To: jermoney who wrote (1877)12/13/1997 4:49:00 PM
From: Nazbuster   of 3029
 
I've never checked... will the "network computers" have disk drives at all?

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To: Nazbuster who wrote (1878)12/13/1997 5:31:00 PM
From: jermoney   of 3029
 
There has been talk of small hard drives being attached to the network computer. The technology is
changing rapidly, digital tv coming on line. PC vs
tv etc. I for one am using Webtv to access the internet, I neve bothered to upgrade my P.C. At any
rate there are no immediate substitues for DD.
good luck jerry

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To: Mark Oliver who wrote (1866)12/13/1997 10:55:00 PM
From: Kurthend   of 3029
 
Mark,
I came across this on the Yahoo board. It is supposedly comments made from the CEO of INVX. At the end of the post the author states who he believes was the source of the comments. Anyway here it is:

Top:Business and Finance:Stocks:Technology:Electronic Instr and
Controls:INVX (Innovex Inc)

<- Previous Next -> Message 213 of 273 Reply

Subj: CEO's comments Date: Dec 11 1997 6:47 P.M PST
By: Iseekvalue Reply To: Msg. 1 by
YahooFinance

This is a very long post but I thought you might be
interested...

FYI....A few quotes from Thomas W. Haley, INVX CEO on
11/25/97:

"A year ago in May, we acquired a company called Litchfield
Precision Components. The company makes ultra high end flex
products, specifically for the medical and the disk drives
industry. They have cutting edge technology. I have been told
that there
are only two other facilities in the world that can duplicate
the type of flex circuits they make at IBM's Rio plant and
the 3M plant in Missouri and Texas. This company is terribly
important to us, doing about $14 million last year out of a
$2 billion worldwide market for flex circuits. There is
probably only 25% of that that we would go after because we
like the high end of the market. That market is expected to
grow to $5 billion by the year 2000. We have great plans for
it.

"The other two divisions are medical products divisions
called InnoMedica and Iconovex, which is our software that we
bought from the people who developed it. Each of these
divisions, I should point out, cost us about $150,000 per
month last year, for
a total of $300,000 per month right off the bottom line of
the company. The good news is that the medical products
during this quarter that ended in March was actually
profitable, all be it tiny, but our budget for the year of
$200,000. "We believe that next year it will be profitable
and start contributing as to leading to our bottom line. The
software division was either a home run or a pop fly. From a
revenue standpoint it is more of a pop fly right now.

"Right now probably 70% of our product goes to the Pacific
Rim. It is generally to American companies, although we have
a Japanese and Korean customer base so we basically right now
sell to every pin chrome head manufacturer in the world.

"The only thing, since we have a pretty ambitious program
going forward, that we would look at would be something that
would compliment our flex circuit operation. Someone that has
a technology that is unique and that served a market that we
are trying
to get in. That might be a special chip packaging type
company that has some expertise and maybe a lead in what we
believe is going to be a very down swing portion of that
market. That is about the only thing we would look at in way
of an acquisition.

Continued.......

This is a very long post but I thought you might be
interested...

FYI....A few quotes from Thomas W. Haley, INVX CEO on
11/25/97:

"This HIF has certainly been announced and I think it has
been kept pretty secret. We did a road show to a variety of
institutions in four cities on the East Coast, Philadelphia,
Baltimore, Boston and New York. We were telling them about
this product, and telling why we felt that it was a superior
solution to what is the disk flex problem, and that is the
tremendous amount of labor to hook up the back end of a MR
head."

One of the main things about Innovex is that our marketing
expenses is one of the reasons our margins end up being where
they are, probably run less than 2% of sales. When there is
only fifteen known customers in the world and you supply all
of them it doesn't take an awful lot to keep the forum
particularly when you have 70% of the market, and supply the
lions share to almost every one of them.

We manage the business to a certain gross margin objective.
We tend to want to pass on over and above that. We had a
quarter that we are probably going to have higher than normal
margins simply because the demand is so strong. We will
strategically work
that down. It has always been our policy that as we improve
our process and save money part of it goes to our customers
and part of it we get to keep. Improving what is already
probably the highest margins in the industry, that is not
necessarily our goal. To maintain our marketshare and to
maintain the overall interconnect marketshare is our goal.

Certainly everything looks pretty rosy right now, but the
disk drive industry in the past has been known to have high
volatility we have been insulated from a lot of that. This
volatility has generally been in the profits and sales
regions. Certainly
if there is a market turn down at some point in time we have
to make sure that we are not building capacity unless we are
aware that it will be short lived. Often times these things
are two quarters. Our strength in the past has been to have
capacity in place when it was required, which is why we are
probably going to have a doubling in sales this year.

If you look at the group we, are the most profitable and have
been for many years. Our stock prices skewed a 98% over a
year-compounded rate of growth. We have one of the best Dow
Jones sheets you will ever see for a company our size. We
have virtually
no debt, $30 million cash in the bank. We earn more money
than most of the people who own businesses. I would say we
are a growth company, growing at a multiple." The simple fact
is that we are going to be a cheaper solution. The disk drive
industry likes cheap.

It was sent to me, I think it came from a publication called Wall Street Corporate Reporter, but I'm not sure.


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