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From: MACD X9/13/2008 12:59:25 AM
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The american chart is just as bearish as well

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nothing is different, the same head and shoulders pattern in on this chart as well.

Also thier is a balance point now on the dow chart above, this is a chart pattern that shows up from time to time. It has just formed, can you spot it?

Definition of a balance point is outlined on the heading of this site.

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From: MACD X9/15/2008 7:32:17 PM
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Time to enter the semi sector

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The semi sector appears to have near completed a symetrical pattern along with congestion centers and orphan candles highly suggest that a tradeable low is at hand.

I marked other such patterns that have happened in the recent past, notice the orphan candlesticks are perfectly placed in the center of the moves.

If the semi sector is ready to turn up you would have to think the rest of the market would also follow,

Be interesting to see how much more capitulation will take place, the bottom is projected at 24 on this semiconductor chart with price being at actual 25 at the time of this writing

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From: MACD X9/16/2008 1:58:35 AM
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Dow Jones Price Ts showing we could be in an area of a bottom within a down trend

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The chart above shows simple price Ts and shows that we are within an area that would support a T.

Although we are due for a bottom another low is scheduled hit shortly afterward.

Examples of Price Ts are in the heading of this site

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To: MACD X who wrote (6807)9/16/2008 2:14:07 PM
From: TWICK
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Now the big question is where would that June 2010 bottom be?

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To: TWICK who wrote (6812)9/16/2008 5:20:08 PM
From: MACD X
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My thoughts on time cycles,

I have studied many time cycles over the years, from the cycles of the moon, to long and short term time cycles, and other related cycle type thinking.

The conclusion that I have came to is that no matter what cycles you are looking at there appears to be a dominate and minor type time cycles.

What I mean by this is that a cycle that is tracking market tops will be considered a dominate top finding cycle. If this thought turns out to be correct it would be likely that it may find 7 tops but 3 may likely turn out to be bottoms instead of tops.

This can be seen on the chart that projected a 2010 bottom on one of my previous posts. But what must be realize is that it may actually be a TOP.

If a dominate top finding cycle is plotted and it has located serveral tops in a roll, then is must be considered that the next time cycle may infact be a bottom.

It has also been my observation that cycles hold fairly true within an up trend,but when the uptrend reverses it appears that the cycle is shifted someone and may need adjusted for the now going down cycle.

This sounds complicated but actually isnt, others on this site that are deep into T.A. may have other or simular observations that they have recognized thru the years.

As for the June 2010 bottom projection question of when in June 2010, the answer is anywhere plus or minus 1 year or so. Time cycles are just that and should be looked at as a guide line not an exact time date, Sorry

Discussion on this subject is welcome

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To: MACD X who wrote (6813)9/16/2008 6:07:41 PM
From: TWICK
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Could you elaborate on what you mean by "shifted" when an uptrend reverses? After this shift, do you believe that cycles in a down-trend hold fairly true just like they would in an up-trend? Is there a similar, or equal shift when a down-trend reverses?

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To: TWICK who wrote (6814)9/16/2008 7:33:00 PM
From: MACD X
   of 6865
 
example of shifted

stockcharts.com

The question was asked to explain time cycles shift. It has been my observation with dealing with time cycles that they are fairly accurate within a trend, but when the trend reverses the accuaracy of the cycle often shifts.

The example above is probably not a great one and I hope you can see it because its a 10 year monthly chart. [sometimes non stockcharts members cant see the longer term chart, so I hope you can.]

The uptrend started with blue lines and after the uptrend ended these cycles became unreliable when the new down trend started, they shifted out of sink.

When the down trend started the new cycles also started, marked in red ,and where accurate as long as the down trend was in progress but became less accurate when the new uptrend started. They shifted over slightly.

What you are looking at on the chart are two sperate time cycles of different lengths, this is also another problem as differnt time cycles are also accuarate accross a chart, this is a fact on most charts.

The key is to look for the time cycle that is best over the overall average of a long time frame and go with that. Tops and bottoms will be off slightly due to the trend effect, but they still provide some value as they may be close.

Time cycles are just like all other T.A. they are correct at a percentage of more than 50% this gives you a gambling edge odds wise. Cycles are like most good tools probably accurate about 80% of the time.

There is no holy grail and this is just a fact of life of a T. A. preson. We play the odds and try to understand the possiblitys, nothing is for certain.

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From: MACD X9/16/2008 8:27:22 PM
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elliott wave count looks complete

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The chart above shows a count that looks complete, and although elliott wave is not a difinite science it does appear that after the fact an elliott count is always possible,

Realize also that if 10 elliott wavers are locked into a room, there will be 11 or 12 differnt counts being that all we have thier own and some will likely have two, so take elliott wave anyway you wish.

But if you add too it other tools like symetry, congestion centers, orpahn candlsticks and the like, when they all like up the elliott count becomes more believable.

The chart pattern is symetrical and the indicators are diverged, it appears to me that a tradable bottom may be in and at minimum a counter trend rally may be getting ready to unfold.

As always any thoughts or opinions are welcome.

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To: MACD X who wrote (6815)9/16/2008 9:02:56 PM
From: TWICK
   of 6865
 
thanks for the reply and explanation.

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To: MACD X who wrote (6813)9/16/2008 9:33:33 PM
From: jaker
   of 6865
 
The Full Moon last night said we were do for a bounce... It just happened to be an inverted moon cycle... Wow, what a move.

The point being inverted cycles often pack a lot more punch!

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