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From: Return to Sender12/16/2006 7:42:38 PM
   of 6865
Amateur Investors Weekend Market Update:

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From: pcyhuang12/16/2006 9:52:27 PM
   of 6865
CWTR -- A 20-Bagger in Six Years?

Motley Fool reports: Can anyone really earn 20 times his or her money in just six years? That computes to an annual return of 64% per year, turning a $50,000 investment into $1 million by 2012. It strikes veteran investors as unfathomable.

But turn back the clock six years to December 2000, and observe Urban Outfitters, then valued at $140 million. Today, it's worth $3.8 billion. It's come down this year -- the stock had actually risen more than 25 times(!) in value in less than five years, as of this January -- but even after nearly being cut in half earlier this year, it's rebounded again to being a "mere" 23-bagger.

The question is: How could you have found it back then?

Finding great returns
Well, it would have been extremely difficult, had you not been intentionally trying to unearth the next small-cap winner. We embrace that challenge with our thousands of contributing members every day in Motley Fool Hidden Gems, because logic and history demonstrate that the major winners of tomorrow are companies capitalized at less than $2 billion today.

So what was so special about Urban Outfitters in 2000 that we actively screen for in Hidden Gems now? Among other things:

Solid financials.
A non-dilutive board.
Founding leaders with major ownership stakes.

Back then, Urban Outfitters featured double-digit sales growth, $16 million in cash, and no debt. Rather than printing stock options like free lottery tickets, the board of directors was buying back stock. The company's two founders -- Richard Hayne and Scott Belair -- were (and are) engaged as board members. Thirty years after starting the business, they had a major incentive to drive the company. Together, they owned more than 45% of the business. Their combined stock holdings were worth $77 million in 2000. Today, they still own more than 32% of Urban Outfitters' stock.

Other companies that have fit this mold are ... Coldwater Creek (Nasdaq: CWTR)...

Full story:


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From: MACD X12/17/2006 1:00:31 PM
   of 6865
Gold and gold stocks on Sale NOW

This weekend my focus has been on the large volume in the last hour of trading friday in the gold sector. I am viewing this as bullish as the charts show.

Low risk traders are there on every chart. Althought fridays drop in price was significant it was only movement inside of a channel in most cases and in the case of SLV the support lines of the andrews pitch forks were not violated.

The volume on friday came in the last hour and this is the professional hour when volume movement matters, I view this as bullish for the gold sector,
Can you say Santa Rally in the gold sector.

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From: MACD X12/17/2006 1:16:23 PM
   of 6865
Focus gold stock GSS

I dont have time today to post several gold pics but I will do this one.

Because my criteria to enter is focused on risk and the exit this stock has relative low risk for a low dollar pick.

Low dollar stocks come equipped with high risk as just very little movement equates to large percentage moves.

This stock has a based formed and is at support of many degrees, it has the potential to go up from here if gold kicks into high gear.

But because we dont know for sure the exit is clear and close. The kind of picks I prefer.

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To: MACD X who wrote (3647)12/17/2006 1:51:49 PM
From: jaker
   of 6865
Dunno on GLD that high volume was everyone heading for the door at the same time, including fund managers.. I do think GLD is reaching a buy zone. I just wonder how quick major buyers will come back... the one day money flow was extremely bearish... sure there will be a nice bounce, not sure when.

gimme a nice hammer off support, please

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To: jaker who wrote (3648)12/17/2006 2:27:05 PM
From: Davy Crockett
   of 6865
Signs point to short but nasty bear market

The Chicago Board Options Volatility Index, or VIX, measures near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices.

Often called Wall Street's fear gauge, it rises to reflect investor fear and falls when players feel less inclined to buy options to manage their stock market risk.

The VIX sank on Monday ahead of a host of market-moving events this week, including the final meeting of the Federal Reserve Board this year.

As U.S. stocks continued to move higher, the VIX, a contrarian indicator, slumped 11.27 per cent to 10.71 — a level not too far from last month's multi-year low of 9.9.

By Wednesday, the VIX was down to 10.18, implying bullish investor sentiment despite the risk of a correction with most of the broader North American indices trading at or near five-year highs.

This historic low of the fear gauge indicates high investor complacency.

As well, the month of December has a lot to do with rising stock markets and investor complacency. That is because major stock market corrections rarely occur during the month, a year-end bonus time for many money managers.

According to my historical data, there has been only one negative December over the past 16 years. Over the same period, a positive December has been followed by five negative Januaries.

Based on the VIX and other technical evidence, I can now go out on a limb and predict a negative January, which could in turn introduce a short but nasty bear with a target low in March 2007.

My March low target is linked to the most recent Federal Open Market Committee decision to leave the key interest rate unchanged due to "substantial cooling" in the housing sector, which in turn heightens the perception that the Fed will lower the U.S. benchmark next year — probably in March.

Some of the other technical evidence can be seen on our chart this week as we plot the weekly closes of Canadian National Railway Co. and weekly closes of the TSX Group Inc.

CNR is an important bellwether in that the railway it is a proxy for the North American economy, while the TSX is a proxy for trading volume in Canada's largest stock exchange.

The technical problem with both indicators is their failure to post new 52-week highs in spite of the recent highs of the broader North American indices. CNR is just above its 40-week moving average, but the moving average is turning downward. The TSX is in worse shape, now trading under its 40-week moving average while its moving average is also pointed downward.

The other technical problem is the failure of the Dow Jones transportation average to break firmly above the old May 2006 peak of 5,020 and "confirm" the recent 52-week high of the Dow Jones industrials. The Dow transports seem to be predicting slower growth in the North American economies.

When we look at the 20 components in the Dow transports we see problems. The top seven names by weight are FedEx Corp. (delivery services), Union Pacific Corp. (railway), United Parcel Service Inc. (delivery services), Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (railway), Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. (marine transportation), Ryder System Inc. (transportation services) and Norfolk Southern Corp. (railway).

None of these companies is trading at or near 52-week highs.

Only three of the 20 components — all airlines: AMR Corp., Continental Airlines Inc. and JetBlue Airways Corp. — are trading at such highs.

Last week I wrote that no one knows how the bear will behave. Will it be a nasty, short drop, as in the 1998 Asian currency crisis bear, or will it be a long slow agonizing bear like in 1973 and 1974?

Cycle expert Ian Notley has produced a study of "short fast bears" over the past century. His observations are as follows:

Year Time

1923 7 months

1934 5 months

1961 7 months

1979 6 months

1987 2 months

1990 3 months

1994 3 months

1998 2 months

If you think you can trade your way though those probabilities, be my guest.

The prudent strategy is to prepare for a bear by making sure you are properly diversified.

Bill Carrigan is an independent stock-market analyst. His Getting Technical column appears Fridays.

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From: Dr. Stoxx12/17/2006 7:46:50 PM
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FYI: Our public list of technical charts have been updated for Monday, with a new focus stock:

(don't forget to vote if you find these charts helpful)

I'll post a few charts tomorrow as the trading day progresses...TC

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To: jaker who wrote (3648)12/17/2006 11:05:38 PM
From: jaker
   of 6865
I just can not get excited about GLD here, Bust the trendline back up and I will be....

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To: jaker who wrote (3648)12/18/2006 3:52:41 AM
From: MACD X
   of 6865
Jaker, friday volume occurred in the last hour as price started to rise as can be seen on the one minute chart,

This chart updates so if you view it after the market start probably wont see much.

Message 23108067

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From: Dr. Stoxx12/18/2006 11:39:03 AM
   of 6865
BTU chart:

More charts like this one: see thread header

(please vote at the bottom of the page if you find these charts helpful! Thanks!!)

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