Technology Stocks | Intel Corporation (INTC)


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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (183815)3/17/2006 2:31:18 PM
From: The Duke of URLĀ©   of 186740
 
Excellent post.

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To: GVTucker who wrote (183816)3/17/2006 2:36:21 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz   of 186740
 
Yes that's a good point. I should rephrase my point to say stock price follows institutional opinion about a stock, because they tend to act as a group. And analyst calls publicize the institutional opinion, to draw in public enactment of it, adding to the pressure. Whether that results in profit or loss to the institution is a different matter. But I think they are able to drive a stock price against fundamentals, and maintain that unnatural price for a while by making public statements, and running automated trading programs whose only purpose is to drive stock price in a direction.

Otherwise how to explain the avg 400m shares of trading volume in intel every week ? By the end of a quarter of this, after billions of shares change hands, there is hardly any change in the institutional holdings.

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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (183813)3/17/2006 2:45:39 PM
From: Proud_Infidel   of 186740
 
Re: As far as AMAT, the company just hasn't managed to come up with "positive surprise!" earnings. It is hard to gather a chorus for the "buy buy buy!" chant without that. Cycles are not deep enough. The data points do not stay in one direction long enough.

Not sure I totally agree with this. If this was true the inverse would also be true. And yet, when looking at GOOG, this is no tthe case. GOOG disappointed in a big way and yet their bandwagon of supporters appears to be as large as ever.

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (183819)3/17/2006 2:55:26 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz   of 186740
 
>> . GOOG disappointed in a big way and yet their bandwagon of supporters appears to be as large as ever.

They continue to chant the "Buy buy!" as they finish selling shares to the public. We really won't know whether institutions actually support (in fact, not just talk) goog until ownership reports are made public on April 15. If my model is valid, there will be a reduction and a shift in institutional holdings.

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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (183811)3/17/2006 3:13:47 PM
From: John Koligman   of 186740
 
Sarmad, these trends can last a loong time <ggg>. My favorite example is that darling stock the Dellheads used to foam at the mouth over. A quick look at Morningstar data shows that in 1999, Dell had revenue of 18.2B and net income of 1.46B. Latest figures show revenue now at 54.2B and net income at 3.3B. Guess what, the stock traded at 54 at the start of 1999 and is trading in the 20's today. I don't see any posts from the Dellheads anymore <ggg>.

Regards,
John

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To: John Koligman who wrote (183821)3/17/2006 3:18:21 PM
From: Proud_Infidel   of 186740
 
I would make the argument that DELL is selling a commodity and should have never received the valuation it did. INTC is quite different in this regard.....whether the street ever takes notice is another matter entirely.

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (183822)3/17/2006 3:25:21 PM
From: John Koligman   of 186740
 
Perhaps, but Dell has continued to be a much faster grower than INTC. Morningstar figures for INTC in 1999 were 29.4B in revenue and 7.3B in net income. Current figures are 38.8B in revenue and 8.66B in net income.

Regards,
John

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To: John Koligman who wrote (183823)3/17/2006 3:29:51 PM
From: Proud_Infidel   of 186740
 
Re: DELL

While revs grew by nearly 32%, earnings grew about half of that.

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (183824)3/17/2006 3:32:21 PM
From: John Koligman   of 186740
 
Brian, Do you mean to say revenues TRIPLED and earnings better than DOUBLED for Dell since 1999 while the stock has been HALVED???

Regards,
John <gg>

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To: John Koligman who wrote (183825)3/17/2006 4:05:02 PM
From: Proud_Infidel   of 186740
 
Sorry, disregard that post.....I was looking at the numbers wrong.

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