Biotech / Medical | momo-T/FIF


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To: hmpa who wrote (7274)8/8/2008 1:08:05 AM
From: Robohogs of 9290
 
I still believe it was the macro hedgies. Go check out charts of the small cap energy sector and you see the same clumsy selling. They sell because their models say sell and it gets worse as the stocks accelerate down.

Jon

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To: Robohogs who wrote (7275)8/8/2008 9:37:47 AM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL of 9290
 
Thanks Jon,

Makes sense to me.

The HF's can move the market.

ij

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To: Robohogs who wrote (7275)8/8/2008 10:22:18 AM
From: Biotech Jim of 9290
 
Robo- Very interesting thoughts. Can you give me your perspective of the size of individual trades these funds would put through. I know from one money runner that when he wants to accumulate on the bid, his trader (system) will often pick up all shares available as long as the stock does not make a strong run in the process.

I wonder if its even relevant to to look at size of individual transactions on the downside selling side?

BJ

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To: Biotech Jim who wrote (7277)8/8/2008 11:35:42 AM
From: Robohogs of 9290
 
From what I understand, the algorithms say sale, and they trample all over the market and are the worst sellers out there. Remember last summer (I think), some of the quant funds got crushed? They were all long the same things and short the same things. Volatility increased tremendously in the market and the models and brokers therefore forced the leverage down in the system forcing them to cover the shorts (all at the same time) and sell the longs (at same time) and the market went back and forth a bunch with no real big move, but small cap bios rallied big time (quants were short) and some in favor names crashed. The funds lost something like 10-30% (Goldman was really hit as was Lehman) in a down a few percent market.

Jon

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To: tuck who wrote (7262)8/12/2008 2:20:19 AM
From: SnowShredder of 9290
 
Hi Tuck,

I still like CYTX. Almost 3 million shares short...trades very tight(if you take the float-(insiders, major holders, & institutions), there aren't that many shares out there to cover...makes me think it is very squeezable (with good news or can drop like a load of bricks on bad news). The recent private placement, shows big fish confidence(Olympus, Gagnon, Jennison all increased their very large positions), even though they lost a recent patent case. Their product is on the market overseas.


Message 24836310

bwdik?

Best of Luck,

SS

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From: Doc Bones8/12/2008 4:09:43 AM
of 9290
 
Cramer 8/11


Buy Biotech
Posted By:Tom Brennan


Cramer named biotech as one of his themes for this week, saying the sector is the best group to own through this fall. His first pick was Onyx Pharmaceuticals
ONYX PHARMACEUTICALS INC
ONXX
39.42 1.27 +3.33% NASDAQ


[ONXX 39.42 1.27 (+3.33%) ].

Biotech’s been the best performer in the market so far this year, with Genentech GENENTECH INC
DNA
97.83 0.88 +0.91% NYSE



[DNA 97.83 0.88 (+0.91%) ] up 45%, ImClone IMCLONE SYSTEMS INC
IMCL
64.09 0.15 +0.23% NASDAQ


[IMCL 64.09 0.15 (+0.23%) ] up 50% and Amgen AMGEN INC
AMGN
64.01 0.21 +0.33% NASDAQ


[AMGN 64.01 0.21 (+0.33%) ] up 37%.

Cramer laid out five reasons why he thinks the trend should continue:

The last time U.S. banks were in crisis and interest rates were kept low – something that pushes big-money investors to pay up for the growth – biotech, which had that growth, did well. Plus, low inflation makes these companies’ future earnings – the reason investors want them – more valuable in real terms.

Second, Democrats love biotech companies, Cramer said. And anyone who’s watched even 30 seconds worth of news in the past year knows that the Blues are favored to win the White House.

Another reason biotech should do well is that, despite all the talk of expensive drugs, people are always willing to pay up.

Then there are all the takeovers that have been happening – six potential deals in July alone.

Eli Lilly LILLY ELI & CO
LLY
49.05 0.54 +1.11% NYSE


[LLY 49.05 0.54 (+1.11%) ] buying SGX Pharma SGX PHARMACEUTICALS INC
SGXP
2.98 0.01 +0.34% NASDAQ


[SGXP 2.98 0.01 (+0.34%) ], ViroPharma VIROPHARMA INC
VPHM
12.89 UNCH 0 NASDAQ


[VPHM 12.89 --- UNCH (0) ] going after Lev Pharma, Sanofi-Aventis SANOFI AVENTIS
SNY
36.18 -0.41 -1.12% NYSE



[SNY 36.18 -0.41 (-1.12%) ] bidding for Acambis, Bristol-Myers BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB CO
BMY
22.44 0.13 +0.58% NYSE


[BMY 22.44 0.13 (+0.58%) ] making a move on ImClone and Roche looking to snatch up the part of Genentech it doesn’t already own. Even generic Teva Pharma TEVA PHARM INDS
TEVA
46.79 -0.49 -1.04% NASDAQ


[TEVA 46.79 -0.49 (-1.04%) ] is looking to acquire Barr BARR PHARMA INC DEL
BRL
67.08 -0.40 -0.59% NYSE



[BRL 67.08 -0.40 (-0.59%) ].

And lastly, the fall season is usually filled with medical conferences and drug approvals, both great catalysts for biotech stocks.

Cramer likes Onyx Pharma. This $2.2 billion firm and its great cancer franchise might make a ripe takeover target a la Roche-Genentech, where a euro-backed company picks up one backed by the weaker American dollar.

The big driver for Onyx is Nexavar, a drug approved for different kinds of cancer that saw second-quarter sales rake in $165 million and grow 107% year-over-year. Cramer said he thinks sales will eventually top $1 billion. It’s true Nexavar was set back when a Phase III trial for use against a type of lung cancer was halted, but Genentechs' Avastin, an extremely successful drug, had its share of setbacks, too. So Cramer seemed unconcerned.

As for a takeover, Bayer, Onyx’s development partner for Nexavar, might step up and put those strong euros to work, Cramer said.

“We should still want biotech,” Cramer said, “and I think Onyx fits the profile of what we’re looking for exactly.”

cnbc.com 

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To: nigel bates who wrote (7257)8/12/2008 2:57:41 PM
From: scaram(o)uche of 9290
 
Oh, wow... going thru old posts and found yours. I'm off to Reno until Sunday, so the timing will be OK. You're in the Sierras, however, and won't know that timing is good until I get back?

For others.... when Nigel comes to town, we generally go to Buffalo Bill's Brewery (hey, I didn't name it!) in Hayward, and then drift to The Bistro (Belgian taps and California micros), just down the block. Nigel comes from South Bay, so it's a convenient "half way" for most.

Ideas?

George.... are we too early to celebrate your arrival?

Best, all!

Rick

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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (7281)8/12/2008 3:00:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche of 9290
 
Outta here, as I have been for most of the summer. Back on Sunday, and I'll catch up on the thread.

Preparing for empty nest when Joe takes off for school, I'll soon have a room for visitors who visit the Bay Area. It may smell like young athlete for a couple of years, but, hey!

:-)

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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (7281)8/12/2008 3:09:24 PM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL of 9290
 
Wish I was closer - would love to join the bunch.

Have good memories.

Jim

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From: Doc Bones8/13/2008 5:56:18 AM
of 9290
 
Cramer 8/12

Cramer's Latest Biotech Buy
Posted By:Tom Brennan

Cramer's posting getting a little weird lately, below is not found at the normal site. Luckily I caught a little during an Olympics [very cool!!] commercial, so I knew he talked bio.

A viewer asked about INCY and he called her a 'playuh,' said he's not a 'playuh' [she had a distinctive Southern African-American accent.] Then he mentioned that you're allowed one speculative-volatile stock, but said INCY's not it, after looking up the 'earnings' history.

Disclosure - holding some INCY & trading some.

Told another caller he would research MEDX.

Grats to super-hero Michael Phelps, et al.

Doc



Cramer on Tuesday added Genzyme to his list of biotech stocks to own. The company has exclusive rights to a number of high-cost drugs and a pipeline that’s attractive to both investors and big pharma firms looking to expand.

Yesterday Cramer named biotech the sector to own right now for five reasons: These high-growth stocks worked during the last U.S. banking crisis in 1990; Democrats for some reason love biotech and there’s a good chance they’ll capture the White House in November; people who need the drugs these companies make are always willing to pay up to get them; there’s been a flurry of takeovers recently – six in July alone; and lastly the fall season is usually filled with medical conferences and drug approvals.

So why Genzyme GENZYME CORP
GENZ
79.53 0.73 +0.93% NASDAQ



The company develops and sells “orphan status” drugs, meaning they treat diseases found in only five out of every 10,000 people. Both the U.S. and the European Union grant exclusivity rights of seven and 10 years, respectively, on any company that undertakes such an initiative. And Uncle Sam adds on tax credits for research and development costs. That’s a nice headstart for Genzyme.

Don’t think the small number of patients means this company doesn’t make any money. In fact, all of Genzyme’s drugs cost between $220,000 and $300,000 a year for just one patient.

Genzyme’s drugs focus on treating Lysosomal Storage Disorders, a rare group of genetic disorders where patients lack an enzyme that allows their cells to function normally. Cerezyme is used to fight Type I Gaucher disease, which causes fatty material to build up in the spleen, liver, kidneys, lungs, brain and bone marrow. Genzyme earned $1.1 billion in revenue from Cerezyme in 2007 despite the fact that only 5,000 people take it. Those are the kind of figures you rack up when you charge $250,000 a year for your products.

And that’s just one orphan drug. Fabrazyme fights Fabry disease, which causes lesions and burning pain in the extremities and can cause kidney failure, and that raked in $424 million last year. But the number of patients who need it is expected to increase 18% this year and 12% in 2009. Aldurzyme combats a metabolic disorder and that could grow to a $1.1 billion franchise, too. Then there’s Genzyme’s great kidney treatment franchise that management expects to bring in $1 billion in sales by 2010.

Add to all this a fantastic late-stage pipeline that would have most giant pharma companies frothing at the mouth and it’s easy to see why Cramer thinks GENZ should be trading at $92 a share rather than $78.

“I believe the time is right for biotech,” he said. “I think Genzyme, with its orphan drugs, is going to be a big winner come November. The Democrats love this kind of company as much as they hate big pharma.”

cnbc.com 

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