Strategies & Market Trends | The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory


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To: clochard who wrote (109783)5/9/2011 12:36:54 PM
From: Knighty Tin   of 109991
 
A lot of other countries are fine. As long as the American military protects them and they have the USA as a super mall market to buy their goods.

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To: the navigator who wrote (109813)5/9/2011 3:08:54 PM
From: silvertoad3 Recommendations   of 109991
 
the double etfs are trading vehicles only -- it's a big mistake to hold them for long periods, as the odds of losing big are very high. they *do not* deliver twice the price move over any length of time, just one day at a time. if he wants leverage there are much safer ways to achieve it.

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To: TH who wrote (109814)5/9/2011 7:02:22 PM
From: the navigator   of 109991
 
Did you see Armstrong's latest on silver?

i had not seen it, thank you for the head's up.

i'm prone to think we're gonna see the beginning of the end manifested in a manner that our fellow citizens will understand sooner, rather than later, bwthdik? i been wrong too many times and i'm constantly amazed at how they keep all the balls in the air.

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To: the navigator who wrote (109819)5/9/2011 9:40:49 PM
From: TH   of 109991
 
tn,

Yea, check it out.

The beginning of the end. Hmmm, is has started, that much I'm sure about. The question that I'm thinking about is more or less the limits of can kicking.

I'm thinking if things go bad, Bernanke pulls that synthetic dollar short game and herds em all back to the clownbuck and Treasuries. And that can go on for a while, but the world is getting wise to it. And one day someone is going to pull the rug out.

It's a real mess.

GT
TH

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To: silvertoad who wrote (109818)5/10/2011 7:43:11 AM
From: prometheus1976   of 109991
 
Amen and so true !

Regards,p1976

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To: bart13 who wrote (109815)5/10/2011 11:42:03 AM
From: the navigator   of 109991
 
thank you for the very interesting chart, there's a lot to see there.

kitco did diverge from the ebay metals in about mid-march until early may, when the ebay premiums spiked. i guess that was about the time tulving (and prbly other dealers), were showing "sold out" on a lot of their inventory. i see this morning that tulving is again offering monster boxes of silver eagles (Shipping Starts Week Of The 30th).

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To: silvertoad who wrote (109818)5/10/2011 12:05:29 PM
From: the navigator   of 109991
 
if he wants leverage there are much safer ways to achieve it.

hi silvertoad and thank you for your observation.

i understand what you are saying, but i don't know enough about leverage in the market to even comment knowledgeably, so i just buy physical and pslv in the ira and hold on.

from reading articles like the following from by Catherine Austin Fitts and Carolyn Betts, GLD and SLV, Disclosure in the Precious Metals Puzzle Palace, i can deduce that etf's are not where i want my wealth to be.

solari.com 

my brother is listening to "advisors" who first advised him to buy spxu last summer in the $30's (we all know how that turned out). he won't listen to me, because i'm not an expert.

if i sound a little annoyed, i guess i am. i started buying physical in '06, to everyone's amusement in the family. about '08, i asked him if he'd considered buying any physical, and he brushed me off with a wave of his hand as if the very idea was ridiculous.

now, of course (since late 2010), he's all on board with physical and the double etf's since he found an advisor who would take several thousand of his dollars to give him information that is virtually free on the internet.

the good news is, he has now bought some physical so he has that protection. in fact, all in my immediate family are now buying physical and for that i'm grateful.

edit-

here's another real good reason to stay away from the etf's (unless you really know what you are doing)....

As 88% Of SLV Shares Outstanding Trade Yesterday, The "Silver Put Buyer" Generates A 68,294,229,502,717.3% Annualized Return

zerohedge.com 

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To: silvertoad who wrote (109818)5/10/2011 1:22:46 PM
From: clochard   of 109991
 
and how is safe leverage done ?

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To: clochard who wrote (109824)5/10/2011 8:02:02 PM
From: silvertoad   of 109991
 
good point -- i should have said 'more reliable' instead of 'safer'. and the most reliable means to leverage a position would be with margin - either the 50% margin available in the stock world, or the extreme ~5% in futures trading. but, to be sure, greater leverage equals greater risk... still, the leverage 'works' very cleanly in these cases, just as intended, and can be useful for sophisticated investors able to manage risk with position size and stops. the problem with the 2 and 3X etfs is that they generally don't work properly over long periods; so, useful for short term traders but best left alone by most imo... they're a rather strange hybrid.

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To: silvertoad who wrote (109825)5/11/2011 1:10:13 AM
From: clochard   of 109991
 
I use both, but I think the 2x and 3x etfs are great if used carefully. As long as the profits exceed the decay down the road I will cry all the way to the bank.

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