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To: russwinter who wrote (109655)2/19/2011 10:48:53 PM
From: GST5 Recommendations   of 109991
 
Hi Russ -- I don't see why the natural progression away from cheap migrant labor would have much to do with the bursting of the real estate bubble in China. The move away from migrant workers is smart and timely for China -- it shows they know what they are doing and moving forward economically.

For us, the impact will be higher prices -- but then we lived in a lala land where people thought we should be worried about 'deflation' -- in my view an ignorant point of view if ever there was one.

Now we have the spectre of a property bubble borne of excess money supply in both China and the US, and the grotesque current account deficit of the USA. This where I see a world of hurt emerging. I see no way to finance the current account deficit in future years -- it will be a nightmare of a falling dollar, higher rates and soaring inflation in a stagnant economy.

US should be bracing for a storm of inflation and a dearth of cheap credit, cheap oil and cheap labor to cushion the impact. Will this tank Chinese real estate? I do not know. We it tank Chinese banking? I do not know. But if I had to bet on who will make it through the coming storm, I would observe that the US is already listing badly to port and taking on water in a way that nobody should be lulled into thinking is sustainable. On the Chinese side, I see a complex adjustment away from a cheap labor export model and towards a slightly more inward model with slower growth -- not sure that I would want to call the outcome of that transition just yet.

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To: GST who wrote (109656)2/20/2011 4:39:58 PM
From: russwinter1 Recommendation   of 109991
 
I agree with your view on the US. I don't think you thought I was making an American-centric argument here?

The China real estate bubble is also hot money driven, playing off the China growth story. Therefore I think these export troubles will have a direct effect. The main problem for China RE are inflated bubble prices and the fact that the Government finally declared war on speculators.

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To: benwood who wrote (109638)2/20/2011 5:37:08 PM
From: captkirk3 Recommendations   of 109991
 
i highly doubt anyone in the socialized western world is going to riot about anything other than a smooth continuation of the past. when 50% plus people on the street have a direct interest in a gov't paycheque, the only rioting you'll ever see is when said paycheque gets cut. they have NO, REPEAT NO INTEREST in classical semantically correct 'freedom'....to them freedom means a gov't paycheque. americans love freedom in name only, they will collapse just like all the other fat lazy euro trash gov't employees. count on it.

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To: captkirk who wrote (109658)2/20/2011 11:27:30 PM
From: Gib Bogle1 Recommendation   of 109991
 
"classical semantically correct 'freedom'"

Would you like to provide the 'semantically correct' definition of 'freedom'?

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To: russwinter who wrote (109657)2/20/2011 11:45:35 PM
From: GST1 Recommendation   of 109991
 
Can you untangle the 'hot money' in real estate from the domestic money that just goes along with high savings and few places to park it for a capital gain? I see China as a place awash in savings looking for a place to park. If it comes out of real estate as the upward potential cools, it will go into gold. I personally do not care much if Chinese real estate cools -- and I do not assume it will crash. If high prices were enough to crash Chinese real estate, there would have been no way to explain the past 50 years in Hong Kong.

Just my views -- and I appreciate yours -- you are really making me think.

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To: bart13 who wrote (109631)2/21/2011 12:43:41 AM
From: Hawkmoon   of 109991
 
Wow!! Look at that perfect H&S formation!!

Amazing where those things show up in data.. and the subsequent outcome..

Hawk

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To: bart13 who wrote (109645)2/21/2011 1:26:50 AM
From: Hawkmoon2 Recommendations   of 109991
 
If you act like an idiot, the majority of people will treat you as an equal

- Hawkmoon Realization 1990

Hawk

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (109662)2/21/2011 9:12:00 AM
From: mindmeld3 Recommendations   of 109991
 
Nothing has been resolved since the financial crisis and none of the criminal executives have been held to account. Therefore, we can expect a repeat of the crisis, but the next time it will be much larger...

Case on Mortgage Official Is Said to Be Dropped

By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
Published: February 19, 2011
nytimes.com 

Federal prosecutors in Los Angeles have dropped their criminal investigation into Angelo R. Mozilo, the former chief executive of Countrywide Financial, once the nation’s largest mortgage lender, according to a person with direct knowledge of the investigation.

The closure of the case after two years of inquiry follows last October’s settlement by Mr. Mozilo of insider trading allegations made by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Regulators had contended that Mr. Mozilo sold $140 million in Countrywide stock between 2006 and 2007 even as he recognized that his company was faltering. Countrywide and Bank of America paid $45 million of Mr. Mozilo’s $67.5 million settlement, and he was responsible for the rest.

Without admitting or denying wrongdoing, Mr. Mozilo agreed to be banned from serving as an officer or a director of a public company.

The conclusion by prosecutors that Mr. Mozilo, 72, did not engage in criminal conduct while directing Countrywide will likely fuel broad concerns that few high-level executives of financial companies are being held accountable for the actions that led to the financial crisis of 2008.

Hundreds of billions of dollars have been lost by investors while millions of borrowers have lost their homes. Few of the people who ran the institutions that contributed to the disaster have been found liable.

E-mails and other documents supplied to regulators in the S.E.C.’s case against Mr. Mozilo showed him discussing the company’s lending practices and describing some of its loans as “toxic” and “poison.” Nevertheless, the company kept selling the types of loans Mr. Mozilo was denigrating.

The person with knowledge of the probe insisted on anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly. The closing of the criminal case was first reported by The Los Angeles Times.

Even as criminal and civil prosecutors are closing investigations into financial executives, private litigation is swelling. Investors who purchased dubious mortgage securities are bringing a wide array of cases against mortgage lenders and the Wall Street firms that enabled them. These investors maintain, citing internal documents and e-mails, that those putting together mortgage securities knew that they contained problematic loans that would likely fail.

For example, a suit filed earlier this year against Bear Stearns by Ambac, an insurance company that guaranteed mortgage securities, cited an August 2008 e-mail from a former Countrywide executive. He explained to a friend that he had not recognized the financial cataclysm on the horizon because “we were having too much fun” processing risky mortgage instruments “and getting loaded on Miller Lite.”

Mr. Mozilo, the son of a Bronx butcher, started Countrywide in 1969 with David Loeb, who died in 2003; together the men built the company into a mortgage lending giant with $11.4 billion in revenue at its peak in 2006.

In his years at Countrywide, Mr. Mozilo became one of the highest-paid executives in America. From 2000 until 2008, when he left, Mr. Mozilo received total compensation of $521.5 million, according to Equilar, a compensation research firm.

Mr. Mozilo made a rare court appearance last month in a wrongful dismissal case won by Michael G. Winston, a former Countrywide executive who said he was let go after questioning the company’s practices. Observers said Mr. Mozilo was combative and defiant early in his testimony, but later looked frail and had to grasp the railing as he left the witness stand.

“All of these senior people got huge payouts and left behind the carnage, which has hurt many hundreds of thousands,” said Ted Mathews, the lawyer who represented Mr. Winston in the case.

Peter Lattman contributed reporting.

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From: TH2/21/2011 11:41:57 AM
   of 109991
 
Tulving bumps the bid on tasty one ounce Eagles by $2 to $38.

BU 1 Oz American Eagles - Dates Our Choice
20 Coin Minimum

Buy@ Spot + $38

GT
TH

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (109662)2/22/2011 6:39:38 PM
From: Knighty Tin   of 109991
 
Have you ever read the books about Darian Hawkmoon? From the sixties and out of print, but lots of gore and adventure.

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