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To: LindyBill who wrote (479887)4/1/2012 7:39:45 AM
From: Nadine Carroll2 Recommendations   of 538030
 
The MB have learned a kind of institutional caution in the service of a goal which is every bit as extreme as that of the Salafis. Still, after you try to kill Nasser, and he survives and puts you into concentration camps, you remember a certain lesson in caution. But what the NYT is too stupid to understand is that caution does not equal moderation.

So they are feeling their way. All signs are promising, it looks like they think the time is right for a complete Islamist takeover.

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To: LindyBill who wrote (479934)4/1/2012 7:51:13 AM
From: Nadine Carroll16 Recommendations   of 538030
 
One C.I.A. analyst who had helped develop some of the intelligence about Saddam Hussein’s supposed weapons of mass destruction had a breakdown months after the Iraq war began; he had participated in the post-invasion hunt there that found the weapons did not exist. When he eventually was given a new assignment assessing Iran’s nuclear program, he confided a fear to colleagues: that the intelligence community might get it wrong again.

“He felt enormous guilt that he had gotten us into the war,” said one former official who worked with the analyst. “He was afraid it was going to be déjà vu all over again.”

Oh, so now that it is 10 years in the past, they admit that Bush acted on the intelligence he was given. There was no cherry-picking. They made up the entire "Bush lied" campaign to cover their own mistakes.

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From: LindyBill4/1/2012 8:14:29 AM
   of 538030
 
"The Outcast
April 1, 2012: Under pressure from Iran to support the Syrian dictatorship, and from the Arab world to support the Syrian rebels, Iraq is trying to remain neutral. That means no official support for the rebels, but ignoring efforts by Iraqi Sunnis (who dominate along the Syrian border) to support the Sunni majority in Syria. This may score Iraq some points if the Syrian rebels win. Most Iraqis don't care if the pro-Iran dictatorship in Syria is overthrown. After all, that dictatorship is run by the hated Baath Party. The Syrian and Iraqi Baath Parties used to be united, but split in the 1960s over a leadership dispute. Both branches went on to establish brutal dictatorships. The Iraqi Baath Party was crushed (but not completely eliminated) in 2003. What worries Shia Iraqis (over 60 percent of the population) is that democracy in Syria means the Sunni majority will rule, and that Sunni government might conspire with other Sunni governments in the region to support terrorism by the Iraqi Sunni minority in order to put the Iraqi Sunni minority in control of Iraq once more. This would be a dictatorship, but Sunnis in the region believe that century's old Sunni rule of Baghdad and the surrounding areas (modern Iraq) is the best way to contain Iran. The current Shia dominated Iraqi government is having a hard time convincing its Sunni neighbors that the Iraqi government is run by Arabs who do not want to see non-Arab Iran expanding. But the religious feud between Iran (run by a council of senior Shia clergy) and Saudi Arabia (run by a Sunni family that supports Sunni control of Islam's most holy places) is trying to force Iraq to land firmly on one side or another.

At the same time, the government looks the other way while massive smuggling goes on to Iran, which helps Iran get around the growing number of economic sanctions. But this smuggling still leaves the sanctions about 90 percent effective.

Al Qaeda and other Sunni Islamic terror groups have turned into criminal gangs. Outside support, at least in terms of cash and weapons, has pretty much disappeared. So the terrorists use extortion, robbery and kidnapping to make the payroll and buy supplies (weapons, bomb equipment) and influence (bribes). The judicial and prison systems are corrupt, and with enough cash they can get their captured brethren freed. While some of the al Qaeda men have left Islamic radicalism behind and gone on to be all-gangster, all the time, many still fight on for a Sunni ruled Iraq. That is not likely to happen, so the security forces continue to hunt down and, preferably, kill all the Islamic terrorists they can find. Young, unemployed, Sunni Arab men note this and either find a job, or take to the criminal life. Islamic radicalism is seen as a dead-end choice and decidedly unpopular."

strategypage.com 

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To: LindyBill who wrote (479946)4/1/2012 8:28:28 AM
From: goldworldnet   of 538030
 
Speech technology is advancing both ways in "speech to text" and "text to speech." Then we also have advancing graphics technology. In the future we could have new John Wayne movies if we wanted, but the scary thing as you say would be that we will be able to recreate the graphics and speech for anyone living or dead to such a degree that it will be impossible to tell what is real.

* * *

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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (479951)4/1/2012 8:29:00 AM
From: LindyBill1 Recommendation   of 538030
 
Our present Admin will go with the Islamist Government as far as the can. They have no problem with them and are willing to believe what they are being told. The outcome is totally murky. They want to keep the Billion and a half or so from us. They will be desperate for us to feed them in the next few years.

As long as Obama is in, they can go against Israel much further than they can under a Romney regime. So that is a big "if." I could say what I would like to see happen, but why bother, it won't.

We won't see a "Pakistan" situation, where the Military and the Civil go against each other. The Situation is much more likely to resemble Iran, but with a much weaker Religious Government. From what I can tell, the Mullahs really do run Iran.

Will the hatred of Israel stay verbal? I think it will be much louder, but not to the point of war. The Military know they can't win, and the Mullahs have too much to lose from us. The old days of having the Soviet Union back them up are over.

I expect them to use the Gaza strip Egyptians, ( that is what they really are,) to up the war with Israel in much the same way that Iran uses Hezbollah. They can "lie and deny" to us.

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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (479952)4/1/2012 8:34:09 AM
From: LindyBill13 Recommendations   of 538030
 
They made up the entire "Bush lied" campaign to cover their own mistakes.

Bush should have hung this on the CIA analysts. Obama or Clinton sure would have. Too nice a guy. Nobody in the CIA came out behind. They almost hung Bush with the "Yellowcake" story, and that was an attempt by someone there to get him. Again, he let them do it to him, and even hung Cheney's man for it.

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From: LindyBill4/1/2012 8:36:56 AM
2 Recommendations   of 538030
 
The way we are handling this makes me what to scream.

"Civilian Gun Ships Off Somalia
April 1, 2012: To get around laws, in many ports, forbidding weapons aboard merchant ships, security companies operating off the Somali coast have equipped small ships to serve as floating arsenals. The security guards boards, in port, the merchant ships they are guarding, then meet up with the gun ship in international waters so the guards can get their weapons and ammo. The process is reversed when the merchant ships approach their destinations or leave pirate infested waters (and put the armed guards off onto the gun ship.) Maritime lawyers fret that there are no proper laws to regulate these floating armories, or that if there are applicable laws, everyone is not following them. It's also feared that some enterprising lawyers will seek to represent the families of pirates shot by these armed guards. Off the Somali coast, everyone is looking for a big payday.

In the last three years, more and more merchant ships, despite the high expense, have hired armed guards when travelling near the "Pirate Coast" of Somalia. It began when France put detachments of troops on tuna boats operating in the Indian Ocean, and Belgium then supplied detachments of soldiers for Belgium ships that must move near the Somali coast. These armed guards are not cheap, with detachments costing up to $200,000 a week. There are now over a dozen private security companies offering such services. What makes the armed guards so attractive is the fact that no ship carrying them has ever been captured by pirates. That may eventually change, but for the moment, the pirates avoid ships carrying armed guards and seek less well-defended prey.

Most Western nations have small merchant marine fleets operating under the national flag. It's more common for shipping companies in the West to use "flags of convenience" (like Liberia and Panama) to evade laws mandating who can be hired for the crew and what they must be paid (in addition to other restrictions.) Shipping companies using flags of convenience generally do not allow firearms on board, lest they be used by mutineers. There are a few mutinies each year, usually over pay or working conditions. But even if there are weapons on board, you would have to train members of the crew how to use them. Moreover, the pirates often rely on stealth, sneaking up on a ship at night, while the target vessel is far off the Somali coast.

The piracy has been a growing problem off the Somali coast for over a decade. The problem now is that there are thousands of experienced pirates. And these guys have worked out a system that is very lucrative, and not very risky. For most of the past decade, the pirates preyed on foreign fishing boats and the small, often sail powered, cargo boats the move close (within a hundred kilometers) of the shore. During that time, the pirates developed contacts with businessmen in the Persian Gulf who could be used to negotiate (for a percentage) the ransoms with insurance companies and shipping firms. The pirates also mastered the skills needed to put a grappling hook on the railing, 10-12 meters (30-40 feet) above the water, of a large ship. Doing this at night, and then scrambling aboard, is more dangerous if the ship has lookouts, who can alert sailors trained to deploy high pressure fire hoses against the borders.

Big ships have small crews (12-30 sailors). Attacking at night finds most of the crew asleep. Rarely do these ships have any armed security. Ships can post additional lookouts when in areas believed to have pirates. Once pirates (speedboats full of armed men) are spotted, ships can increase speed (a large ship running at full speed, about 40+ kilometers an hour, can outrun most of the current speed boats the pirates have), and have fire hoses ready to be used to repel boarders. The pirates will fire their AK-47 assault rifles and RPG grenade launchers, but the sailors handling the fire hoses will stand back so the gunmen cannot get a direct shot.

Since the pirates generally take good care of their captives, the anti-piracy efforts cannot risk a high body count, lest they be accused of crimes against humanity, war crimes or simply bad behavior. The pirates have access to hundreds of sea going fishing boats, which can pretend to fish by day, and sneak up on merchant ships at night. The pirates often operate in teams, with one or more fishing boats acting as lookouts, and alerting another boat that a large, apparently unguarded, ship is headed their way. The pirate captain can do a simple calculation to arrange meeting the oncoming merchant vessel in the middle of the night. These fishing boats can carry inflatable boats with large outboard engines, or simply two speedboats towed behind it. Each of these can carry four or five pirates, their weapons and the grappling hook projectors needed to get the pirates onto the deck of a large ship. These big ships are very automated, and at night the only people on duty will be on the bridge. This is where the pirates go, to seize control of the ship. The rest of the crew is then rounded up. The pirates force the captain to take the ship to an anchorage near some Somali fishing village. There, more gunmen will board, and stand guard over crew and ship until the ransom is paid. Sometimes, part of the crew will be sent ashore, and kept captive there. The captive sailors are basically human shields for the pirates, to afford some protection from commando attacks."

strategypage.com 


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From: LindyBill4/1/2012 8:39:15 AM
2 Recommendations   of 538030
 
Another issue where I shake my fist at the sky and holler.

"The Micromanagement Monster Returns
April 1, 2012: Micromanagement, first seen during the Vietnam War when advances in communications allowed someone in the Washington to communicate directly with commanders in combat, has reached new heights, and is causing major headaches for another generation of battlefield commanders. It began eight years ago when the U.S. Department of Defense decided to provide the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) with a real time combat command capability. This meant that the JCS, led by its chairman, now has a combat command center in the Pentagon where they use satellite communications to directly observe, and sometimes control, combat forces anywhere on the planet. Now all these senior officers learned, early on in their military training, the importance of giving subordinates their mission and leaving it to these lower ranking officers to figure out a way to do it. But now, with a generation of senior commanders with no experience of being micromanaged platoon leaders in Vietnam, the insidious and crippling micromanagement disease is creeping back into the White House and Pentagon. Field commanders are being second guessed by nervous superiors half way around the world. These same superiors are now calling in lawyers to help them make the right (for the guy in Washington) decision while the troops are under fire and waiting for permission to proceed. It wasn't always this way.

It was only in the past century that a government could exercise any control at all over armed forces far from the capital. This was first done with the introduction of overland and undersea telegraph lines in the 19th century, and world-wide radio broadcasting equipment early in the 20th century. Before that, an admiral or general was sent off with orders to accomplish a mission, and pretty much allowed to get it done as they saw fit. The generals and admirals rather liked this approach, as their job was hard enough without a bunch of politicians looking over their shoulder and second guessing their every decision. Even with the radio messages from back home, the combat commanders were still left to sort things out on their own. The radio was used mainly to report progress, or lack of it, not ask permission for every move.

But by the 1960s, it was possible to patch through a telephone call from the White House to an infantry battalion commander deep in the Vietnamese bush. And it wasn't just the dreaded phone call from the president you had to worry about. The beleaguered battalion commander might have brigade, division and corps commanders circling overhead in helicopters, all of them observing and offering advice, or giving orders. This "micromanagement" was much disliked by the guys on the ground, trying to run a battle they were right in the middle of.

After Vietnam, the Department of Defense tried to deal with this problem by establishing regional commands to cover the entire planet, and then appoint four star generals or admirals to command all American forces in that region if there were a war (the rest of the time, they would keep an eye on things and get ready for any possible war.) These commanders in chief (or CINCs, as they are still called, unofficially) were sometimes guilty of micromanagement, although all experienced combat commanders recognized that it was best to leave the commanders of the fighting units alone. This was the lesson of history. Micromanagement was bad, but it persisted. Why?

Blame it on the media. Just as military communications had improved, so had the ability of the media to get the story back to their audience (of voters, pundits and unfriendly politicians.) In the past, the commander on the spot might do things that did not look good in the media, but it took so long to get the story back that the operation was over by the time it did. If the battle was won, many sins would be forgiven. That no longer works. Communications now allow reporters to deliver color commentary while a battle is going on. The president, the ultimate (by law and in fact) commander in chief, is held responsible for whatever the troops do. It is not possible, politically, to wait for the combat commanders to finish their job before the president, or his aides, issues new orders.

Examples of micromanagement were abundant in the recent Afghanistan and Iraq wars. Washington often had to be consulted before sensitive attacks were made (like having a predator UAV launch a Hellfire missile at some guy on the ground who might be Osama bin Laden, or some tall Afghan with a beard, a new SUV and a commanding manner.) The JCS Command Post is an attempt to deal with this problem. The JCS and the Secretary of Defense are the president's senior, and most frequent, military advisors. Ultimately, the buck stops with the JCS. So by plugging the JCS into a world-wide command system, politically sensitive decisions can be resolved quickly (in minutes, or at least in less than an hour.) The more frequent contact between the president, the Secretary of Defense and the JSC with combat commanders might build up a degree of trust that would enable sensitive decisions to be made more quickly. This would happen, in a best case situation, because the JCS Command Post had developed confidence in the judgment of the commanders out there.

But the JCS Command Post has just become another layer of management that slows down decision making without improving the ability of the troops to get the job done. To solve this problem, it's proposed that the CINC be reduced to the status of a staff officer. The CINC and his people (several hundred staff officers and support troops) would be the repository of knowledge about the local situation and would take care of all those logistical and support details that enable the combat operations to happen. So far, the CINCs have successfully resisted this, but it's happening anyway whenever the folks back in Washington want to throw their considerable weight around.

Speaking of staff work, one thing combat staffs are increasingly concerned with is how to deal with politically delicate situations that the media could run with (often in uncomfortable directions.) This sort of thing has been seen frequently in the last decade. For example, when sandstorms seemed to have "stalled" the American advance on Baghdad in 2003, the president, or at least the Secretary of Defense, had to be in touch with the commanders inside the sand storm, and then say something to the press that would defuse the story, and wouldn't blow up later if it proved to be false. For those who didn't catch the follow up on the stand storm, the troops were delayed by the need to resupply (especially fuel for their very thirsty M-1 tanks) and the storm actually helped because the Iraqis thought they could safely move Republican Guard divisions under cover of it. They couldn't, as there were American satellites, UAVs and sensors on the ground that could see right through the sand. Iraqi tanks and troops got shot up on a massive scale before they realized that the airborne sand blinded them more than the Americans.

The ability to quickly communicate between the battlefield and the Pentagon came in handy after Baghdad fell and the Baath party diehards continued to resist with ambushes. But all of this communication was improvised. That experience naturally led to the idea that better preparation for that situation would have improved communications and decision making. The Pentagon and White House already expected to see real time UAV video coverage of critical events. But there are often dozens of video feeds running through Department of Defense satellites, and the JCS Command Post tries to sort it all out and have the most important videos marked for the attention of the president, Secretary of Defense and Chairman of the JCS, or for release to the media.

Micromanagement originally appeared because the technology was there to make it possible. New technology keeps showing up, making more mischief, or benefits, possible. As always, it's up to the people using the technology to make things happen, or screw things up."

strategypage.com 


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To: goldworldnet who wrote (479954)4/1/2012 8:41:38 AM
From: LindyBill   of 538030
 
The use of it that can be both positive and negative is when if becomes your "friend." It can be that perfect spouse you always dreamed off, without the mess of the sex. You can withdraw from the world and just talk to it.

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From: LindyBill4/1/2012 8:48:32 AM
4 Recommendations   of 538030
 
Billionaires for the War on Drugs
from Marginal Revolution by Alex Tabarrok

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