Strategies & Market Trends | Raptor's Den II


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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (1617)1/18/2004 7:17:55 PM
From: marginmike   of 3430
 
so are we in a bull market now?

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To: Kirk © who wrote (1076)1/18/2004 8:27:23 PM
From: Kirk ©   of 3430
 
Deleted... see next post

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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (1069)1/18/2004 8:30:44 PM
From: Kirk ©   of 3430
 
RE:

"FWIW...I have S&P 1334 and much sooner than 2007 as a possibility...."

What changed your mind?

This is a post from me to you back in March 2003
Message 18953452

You were saying the market was too bullish, back in March of 2003 where you wrote.

" I am still bearish and only a small part of it has to do with wave structure. "

and

"You've got sentiment up the wazoo on the bullish side."

I read things as even more bullish now than in March 2003 because the small investors are coming back. Now you are bullish too which makes more positive sentiment.

So what changed? Your models, the Elliot waves? I made a ton last year being long... more than double my best year ever. I am starting to worry the more bears get the bullis religion.

I am very curious what changed so much for you.

Thanks for sharing.

Kirk

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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (1617)1/18/2004 9:17:39 PM
From: Square_Dealings   of 3430
 
Shorting a couple more SP futures this evening just for good measure based on your post.

thx for the heads up <g>


M

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To: Square_Dealings who wrote (1621)1/18/2004 9:55:59 PM
From: Obamaclown   of 3430
 
hmmm, now I have to decide if your post is more bullish than his is bearish!! -g

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To: velociraptor_ who started this subject1/19/2004 12:13:03 AM
From: velociraptor_   of 3430
 
You guys read way too much into stuff which is why I got sick of posting here on top of pulling out posts which don't mean jack squat 6 months down the road after you adapt to the way the charts have unfolded between then and now.

In that last post....

I said nothing about a bull market or being bullish.

I said nothing about a bear market or being bearish.

I did not say 1334 was a given...I said it has a probability of occuring.

Trade what you see in front of you and if it changes, change with it until it changes again.

Velo..."the moose"

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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (1617)1/19/2004 9:01:54 AM
From: Entitlement   of 3430
 
Welcome aboard. This train is not nearly full yet. Your presence only adds more weight :)

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To: Entitlement who wrote (1624)1/20/2004 2:15:19 AM
From: velociraptor_   of 3430
 
sorry....not joining any train party. But I am looking ahead and the pathway is making itself clear as we push on.

We intend to profit from it mightily on both sides and this should be one of my best years. Where to next...for priviledged eyes only. Got to leave the dumazzes on the valence thread guessing and clueless. Velo knows more than they think.

:o)

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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (1623)1/20/2004 10:08:46 AM
From: Kirk ©   of 3430
 
RE:
"In that last post....
I said nothing about a bull market or being bullish.
I said nothing about a bear market or being bearish.
I did not say 1334 was a given...I said it has a probability of occuring. "


There is a PROBABILITY the sun could explode tomorrow too... how useful is that probability to help people make money?

I've been trying to figure out if anyone can use eWaves to make money and all I have to go on is their public record to see if I want to spend more. With useful predictions like "the market could do anything and I'm not telling you my predictions" doesn't do much to help me decide to pay someone for market timing advice.

You make fun of da Chief but he has some pretty awesome PUBLIC predictions on his board... He called the Nikkei bottom to the day and called the top in the long bond well before it happened. He has also been correctly bullish for as long as I have been following the both of you. He acts like a teenager with the name calling at times, but you have to admit he has been right the past year and you have been wrong on the overall direction of the market.

I personally don't think anyone can reliably time the market but I am still here to let folks like you and da chief prove me wrong. My methods are old fashioned stock picking with asset allocation but I look to improve my results if I can find anything that works.

I did notice you stopped posting your weekly targets for the markets on your web site. I guess it was too much work to keep changing the top prediction as the market went higher and higher last year?

I remember you called a tweezer top last March and said the tops were in last April. I noted it on my web site just as I note the chief's predictions. Here is what I saved from your web site just after the market made its more recent significant bottom.

suite101.com 

April 8, 2003 11:47 AM
NASDAQ:
For Tuesday, there may be some early upside, however, the bias is that the recent high near 1430 will not be broken. A reversal back down is expected soon after the opening hours. A break below support near 1389 and then 1378 is confirmation of a reversal back down with next support near 1335.

A major top appears to be complete with the highs for the year likely set.

Potential range for 2003: High 1520, low 800. Targets will be revised as conditions evolve.


I'm showing the Nasdaq at 2141... just a bit higher than the top you called at 1520.

I'd still like to know where you went wrong reading the eWaves... and what you've learned.


Thanks
Kirk

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To: Kirk © who wrote (1626)1/20/2004 11:20:10 AM
From: velociraptor_   of 3430
 
"how useful is that probability to help people make money"

I run a business and this is what I do for a living....do you really expect me to give everything away for free?

You can use ewaves to make money...we do it almost every day at the site. I posted long ago that I wasn't going to be as active here so I can focus on other things. If you really want a better public record go to the site and watch the free stuff area for a while, but even this probably won't reflect what trades are made as we react to the pattern predicted and the changes necessary to adapt.

I don't want to get into the chief stuff too much here. You can kiss his butt on his own thread. Awesome predictions...sure, I can call 10,600 by expiration every single month for the last 6 months too and that won't help me make a dime. That targets was over 600 points away during ther last 3 months last year and never came even close. I at least gave you 8500 before 10,000 when the DOW was 100 points away from 10,000 and it was a valid plan for those same 3 months because the index could not gain that last 100 points in 3 months before it finally failed to hold as a prediction. For da cheif you had to wait over 6 months worth of his broken record stupid calls before it came about. You had only 100 points on me to know when it failed and we traded a lot in between and afterwards.

I would really appreciate that if you are going to talk about public record that you post about both sides or just leave the issue alone. I have my awesome predictions as well but it always seems like on SI, if you like someone you focus on their good calls, and if you don't you focus on their bad ones. I don't have time for these games.

Yes I did stop on posting weekly targets. We have an integrated futures trading strategy now and all predictions on the major indices are proprietary now.

As for March and April...for Pete sakes, get off the past. Again, you focus on the bad over the last few years and not the successes so it is obvious where you stand on me. Besides, that old stuff isn't going to help you make a dime tomorrow, especially if it is now invalid, so why even bother to bring it up other than to bash someone?

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