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To: Henry Niman who wrote (2336)9/20/2005 7:14:18 AM
From: Henry Niman
   of 4203
 
Commentary at

recombinomics.com

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To: Henry Niman who wrote (2334)9/20/2005 8:34:20 AM
From: Henry Niman
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Commentary at

recombinomics.com

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From: Henry Niman9/20/2005 11:16:37 AM
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Minister Suspects Bird Flu Virus in Ragunan Due to Migration
Tuesday, 20 September, 2005 | 19:52 WIB

tempointeractive.com

TEMPO Interactive, Jakarta:Indonesian Minister of Health Siti Fadilah Supari has said she suspects that the spread of the bird flu virus among 19 birds in Jakarta’s Ragunan zoo was due to the factor of bird migration.

“If this turns out to be true, then there was no way we could have anticipated it,” said Supari.

The Health Minister said she was surprised that birds in cages could be infected by the bird flu virus.

“How could they be infected unless the virus came from wild birds? And, if it is true that it came from wild birds, how can we stop the virus from spreading?” stated Supari.

At the moment, the government is only in the stage of spraying disinfectant and closing down Ragunan zoo for a 21-day period.

“We also took routine blood samples from zoo employees to find out whether or not they have been infected. If they are infected, we will treat them,” Supari stated.

At the moment, the Health Minister stated, the government was planning to carry out spraying in other locations, including markets.

However, she did not provide details of the markets referred to.

“The markets will not be closed. But, we have to carry out the spraying because according to research in Thailand, the potential spreading of the bird flu virus in markets is higher. I think the Department of Agriculture will carry this out,” stated Supari.

The Health Minister also suggested that people who raise birds pay more attention to cages and their surroundings.

According to Supari, the government is committed to dealing with the bird flu virus so that there it does not spread to humans.

However, it might be difficult considering that information on bird flu is still limited.

“Globally, information on bird flu is still incomplete literature. The discipline does not exist,” stated Supari.

The number of bird flu patients throughout the world is only 115 people.

“This is one of the reasons why this has become an international matter. We still extremely minimal information. The WHO itself is learning a lot from Indonesia,” stated Supari. (Thoso Priharnowo-Tempo News Room)

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From: Henry Niman9/20/2005 11:24:26 AM
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Bird Flu Declared National Extraordinary Occurrence
Tuesday, 20 September, 2005 | 20:04 WIB

tempointeractive.com

TEMPO Interactive, Jakarta:The Indonesian government has declared the bird flu virus to be a national extraordinary occurrence not only in the special capital region of Jakarta.

The reason for this, according to Minister of Health Siti Fadilah Supari, is that the number of victims is higher following the case of Iwan Iswara, an auditor at the Supreme Audit Agency (BPK), who died together with his two daughters a month ago.

“At that time, there was only one occurrence, that of Mr Iwan and his daughters. But now, there are two others, that of Rini Dina and Mutiara,” said Supari during a meeting at her office in Jakarta on Monday (19/09).

Rina Dina died at Bintaro International Hospital on Saturday (10/09), while Mutiara is still being treated at Suliyanto Saroso hospital.

The national extraordinary occurrence status, said Fadilah, was declared so that the government and members of the general public would be more aggressive in dealing with the bird flu and the budget that has been allocated for this.

“We will immediately prepare 44 referred hospitals so that all regions are more active. This is a logical consequence,” stated the Health Minister.

The government has named six measures in handling the bird flu virus.

One, to restrict bird flu infection to animals.

Two, to socialize the bio-security activities carried out by the Health Department and the Agricultural Department.

Three, for the Health Department, the Agricultural Department and the Trade Department to monitor wider and more aggressively.

Four, to increase case management in order to detect cases as early as possible.

Five, to prepare 44 hospitals in order to treat patients suspected of being infected by bird flu.

Six, to prepare eight provinces so that they will have H5N1 early virus detection centers.

The government has already put forward Rp158 billion in funds to handle the bird flu virus.

“However, with the national spreading of this virus, we will need to improve our preparations in having collaborative laboratory such as owned by Hong Kong,” explained the Health Minister.

The national declaration of an extraordinary occurrence status, Fadilah said, was done at the authority of the central government.

“So, we do not have to compromise with the regions,” said Fadilah. (Ami Afriatni-Tempo News Room)

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To: Ilaine who wrote (2326)9/20/2005 11:50:54 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™
   of 4203
 
ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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To: Henry Niman who wrote (2329)9/20/2005 12:09:07 PM
From: Ilaine
   of 4203
 
It's a sad fact of life, Henry, that if you turn out to be right, you'll be called a genius, while, if you're wrong, you'll be called a crackpot, yet, in truth, the reasoning process you're using doesn't always pan out. Doesn't make you a crackpot if you're wrong, although you probably wouldn't mind being called a genius if you're right.

It's impossible to predict exactly when a lethal mutation will occur, but it's important to be aware that it is likely to happen in the future, because it has happened in the past.

I admire you for having the patience to remain vigilant. It's not a common characteristic.

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To: Ilaine who wrote (2342)9/20/2005 2:07:03 PM
From: Henry Niman
   of 4203
 
Indonesia is getting ready to explode. It's an easy call. My guess is this time next week there will be no doubt.

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To: Henry Niman who wrote (2343)9/20/2005 2:12:57 PM
From: Ilaine
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Well, no offense, but I hope you're wrong. Time will tell.

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To: Ilaine who wrote (2342)9/20/2005 2:18:14 PM
From: Henry Niman
   of 4203
 
This is not as hard as you think. H5N1 evolves via recombination, which makes its moves an easy call. The sequences indicate were its been and where it is going. It is clearly going global, expanding its host range, and becoming more efficient at infecting humans. All of these changes are in the same direction, and it looks like Indonesia is just about ready to cross over the tipping point.

Many people will be asking many questions when the realize it is too late to do much, and that's another easy call.

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To: Ilaine who wrote (2344)9/20/2005 2:19:26 PM
From: Henry Niman
   of 4203
 
Unfortunately the wheels are in motion and hopes and dreams won't do much.

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