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To: Moominoid who wrote (9831)5/1/2006 6:53:34 PM
From: TraderRick   of 13648
 
It takes some time for the oil prices to filter down and affect other prices. Things that are being sold were already in warehouses or at the stores. In the next couple of quarters the prices of everything are going to go up because of transportation costs, and earnings will be affected.

We do have inflation, we do have non-energy inflation. We just have a government that prefers to monkey with the statistics to give everyone warm fuzzies.

The rest of the world can see through the numbers, that's why gold is over 600 an ounce, and the euro is killing the dollar.

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To: TraderRick who wrote (9833)5/1/2006 6:57:24 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor   of 13648
 
well, you can try to come up with some fundamental issue if you want, but imho there is no smoking gun. The internets are weak in the summer, add in an expensive stock, weak market, and some money leaving due to the speculation of S&P finally gone, and you have a falling stock.

There isn't much that will cause goog to rally all summer except stellar earnings imho. And the expectation is that earnings will slightly rise from last quarter, for June.

A lot of people who know nothing about GOOG might be thinking this Alexa thing is meaningful, but it isn't. And ebay IS NOT a goog partner.

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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (9832)5/1/2006 7:39:39 PM
From: Moominoid   of 13648
 
Corporate profits in the GDP don't include the offshore profits (though they are included in GNP). Would be interesting, how much of the strong Q1 earnings figures we have just seen are generated offshore.

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To: TraderRick who wrote (9834)5/1/2006 7:41:50 PM
From: Moominoid   of 13648
 
Oil prices have been rising for a while now:

stockcharts.com 


The rest of the world can see through the numbers, that's why gold is over 600 an ounce, and the euro is killing the dollar.


Why are US long-bond yields still relatively low then?

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To: Moominoid who wrote (9837)5/1/2006 10:10:07 PM
From: TraderRick   of 13648
 
Yes, oil prices have been rising for a while, but it's only been since the hurricanes that fuel prices have skyrocketed, so only about the last 2 quarters. Takes a little time for UPS and FedEx and the other truckers to adjust their prices, then a little more time for those costs to trickle down.

The yields are low on the dollar because oil is bought and sold in dollars. As soon as one of the new oil trading bourses are denominated in Euros, less dollars will be needed to buy oil and that will be the end of the cheap money.

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To: Moominoid who wrote (9837)5/1/2006 10:14:55 PM
From: sammy™ -_-   of 13648
 
>Why are US long-bond yields still relatively low then?<

A little pause for another jump @ around 6-7%

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To: Moominoid who wrote (9837)5/1/2006 10:39:55 PM
From: marc ultra   of 13648
 
<<<Why are US long-bond yields still relatively low then?>>

In addition to all the demand for treasuries, the bond market knows there is no significant inflation despite what some in the Fed and on this board can conjure up. If people are spending a fortune on energy that's buying power they don't have. it's far more contractionary than inflationary. That energy money is mostly headed overseas and is out of the economy.


Obviously we've seen post-Katrina rebound now but the Fed needs to pause and see where things stand after the rate hikes have worked through the economy. Further how much additional money is beginning to get sucked out of the economy as ridiculous adjustable mortgages are just about to start to readjust with inevitable defaults as the year moves on.

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To: marc ultra who wrote (9840)5/2/2006 8:24:29 AM
From: Moominoid   of 13648
 
I agree with you. The bond market shows some increase in expected inflation but nothing dramatic. Bill Gross happens to also agree with this view :) On the other hand he thinks that corporate bonds are overvalued and investors aren't taking the potential risks of corporates over treasuries sufficiently into account. I never understand people going on about the Fed printing money when what they're doing in the last year is almost the opposite.

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To: TraderRick who wrote (9838)5/2/2006 8:25:37 AM
From: Moominoid   of 13648
 
Been pretty much a straight line since 1998.

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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (9835)5/2/2006 2:17:18 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor   of 13648
 
Gartner is telling people Vista is delayed again. I think Vista as a meaningful mkt share component is an 08 story at this point.

Microsoft may delay Vista again, analyst says
Software giant denies Gartner claim, says on track for scheduled release

Updated: 1:38 p.m. ET May 2, 2006

SEATTLE - Microsoft Corp.'s long- awaited release of the upgrade to its flagship Windows operating system will likely be delayed again by at least three months, research group Gartner Inc. said Tuesday.

The research note, released to clients Monday, said the new Windows Vista operating system is too complex to be able to meet Microsoft's targeted November release for volume license customers and January launch for retail consumers.

A Microsoft spokeswoman said the company disagreed with the Gartner report and it was still on track to meet its launch dates.

Vista is the first major overhaul of its operating system, which sits on 90 percent of the world's computers and accounts for nearly a third of Microsoft's total revenue, since Microsoft rolled out Windows XP nearly five years ago.

Microsoft originally targeted a 2005 launch for the new Windows, then pushed the release out to 2006 before announcing in March that Vista would again be delayed to improve the product's quality.


RELATED STORY
Microsoft delays wide launch of Vista

Gartner targets a Windows Vista release in the April-June quarter of 2007, nine to 12 months after Microsoft conducts a second major test, or "beta," release for Vista during the current quarter.

"Microsoft still wants to get it out as soon as possible, but slipping from January to March is nowhere near as bad as slipping from shipping before the holidays to after the holidays," a group of Gartner analysts wrote in the report.

Gartner said Windows XP took five months to go from a second test release to the start of production, but the magnitude of technological improvement in Vista is closer to Windows 2000, which took 16 months between the second test and production.

Once production starts, it usually takes between six- to eight-weeks for PC manufacturers to load the operating system onto new computers, Gartner said.

Microsoft shares were down in afternoon trading on Nasdaq.

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