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From: TimF4/20/2012 7:16:42 PM
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inFact: Locally Grown Produce
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From: TimF4/21/2012 1:44:36 AM
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From: TimF4/23/2012 1:06:38 AM
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A Tale of Two Town Houses
Real estate may be as important as religion in explaining the infamous gap between red and blue states.

By Virginia Postrel

theatlantic.com 

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From: TimF4/23/2012 1:53:22 AM
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Want Higher Taxes? Pay Them Yourself.
By Matt Zwolinski On April 17, 2012 · 80 Comments · In Current Events

As a classical liberal, I believe that government can sometimes act in ways that help people to lead lives that are happier, healthier, and more secure. The problem, though, is that the circumstances under which it is able to do so are very narrowly limited, difficult to foresee, and prone to exaggeration by politically interested factions. So while government is, in principle, able to do some good, there are very often (almost always?) superior non-governmental alternatives for better achieving the same end.

I think all of us know this on some level. Even people like Warren Buffett who publicly beg for the government to tax them more. After all, if Buffett really believes that he ought to be paying more taxes, then what’s stopping him?

The Federal Government of the United States accepts donations. Seriously. They go right into the general fund, just like your taxes. Here’s the address to send them to. If you’re so inclined, you can apparently even earmark your donation for the specific purpose of reducing the federal debt.

Of course, not a lot of people do this. About $3.2 million was given to reduce the debt in 2011, and you can find the (generally much lower) figures for others years here. And while $3.2 million might sound like a lot, bear in mind that it’s about two-tenths of one percent of what Americans spend on ice cream in a given year.

Why so little? One possible explanation is that people are selfish – they’d rather spend the money on themselves, and they aren’t going to give it away to help others unless they’re forced to, as they are in the case of taxes. But this explanation is difficult to square with the large amounts of money that Americans give to charity each year – over $300 billion in 2009, the vast majority of which came from private individuals and bequests, not big corporations looking for a tax break.

So if selfishness isn’t the explanation, what is? I suggest the following: most people know that there are better and more efficient ways of using their money to help other people than giving it to government. Even Warren Buffett knows this. Otherwise why didn’t he make that $37 billion dollar check out to the US Treasury?

We’re careful about how we spend our own money. Not just when we spend it on ourselves, but when we spend it on others too. Whether it’s consumption or charity, we want to get the most for our money. We’re understandably less cautious when it comes to spending other people’s money, but just because something is understandable doesn’t make it right. If we wouldn’t (and don’t) give our own money voluntarily to government, doesn’t this tell us something about whether we should try to force other people to give more of theirs under threat of legal penalty?

bleedingheartlibertarians.com 

Wilkinson vs. Zwolinski on Voluntary Tax Contributions
Posted by Glen Whitman at 12:07 PM

Matt Zwolinski offers an old chestnut libertarian argument: that rich people like Warren Buffett, who advocate greater tax rates on people like themselves, should voluntarily give more money to the government. The fact that they don’t – as when Buffett donates $37 billion to the Gates Foundation instead of the government – indicates that they think their money is best spent elsewhere.

Will Wilkinson thinks this is a bad argument, because there’s obviously a collective action problem. It’s perfectly coherent for Buffett to say he would give more money provided that many others in his situation did the same, but that he doesn’t want to donate money unilaterally.

I believe I can arbitrate this dispute. Whether Matt or Will is right turns on two questions: first, whether Buffett is assumed to be acting altruistically or selfishly; and second, what kind of collective action problem is involved.

Let’s suppose the collective action problem is a form of prisoners’ dilemma. For simplicity, imagine two potential taxpayer/donors, Warren Buffett and Bill Gates. By contributing $100 to the government, each donor could generate benefits of $75 to both parties, for a total benefit of $150 when summed across the taxpayers. If both Buffett and Gates contributed, each of them would get a net benefit of $50 (that is, $75 from each contribution’s benefit, minus the $100 contribution cost). If neither contributed, each would get a net benefit of $0. If one contributed and the other did not, the non-contributor would get a net benefit of $75 (from the other guy’s contribution), and the contributor would suffer a net loss of $25 (that is, $75 from their contribution’s benefit minus $100 from its cost).

To confirm this is a genuine prisoners’ dilemma, note that each party has a rational incentive not to contribute. Regardless of what the other guy is doing, any contribution creates only $75 of personal benefit and $100 of personal cost. Non-contribution is a dominant strategy. And yet both Gates and Buffett would be better off if both contributed, since $50 net benefit (from both contributing) is better than $0 net benefit (from neither contributing).

So this would seem to support Will’s position: it’s sensible to refuse to contribute unless you know that both parties will be forced to do so. But here’s where altruism versus selfishness comes in. The reasoning above depends on the two parties acting on rational self-interest. But if they were reasoning based on an altruistic utilitarian calculus, they would each contribute regardless of what the other guy was doing. A $100 contribution generates a $150 total gain, and that’s enough to justify the contribution. And this, I believe, is Matt’s whole point. Buffett at least claims to be taking an altruistic position – and his actual charitable contributions lend support to that claim. If so, he should be giving more money to the feds if he actually believes doing so will generate the greater altruistic bang for his buck.

On the other hand, let’s suppose the collective action problem is more of a coordination game. Imagine that a $100 contribution from one donor really won’t do any good at all – it will just be wasted. But two $100 contributions will generate a benefit of $150 each. The benefit only occurs when both parties act together in a coordinated fashion. In this situation, it doesn’t make sense to contribute at all unless the other party does so as well – and this is true regardless of whether you’re selfish or altruistic.

If the real-world situation is more like a coordination game, then Will’s position looks stronger. Even as an altruist, Buffett is correct to withhold his contribution to the government until he’s sure the government will make sure Gates (and others) contribute as well. To put it differently, it makes sense to withhold contributions if there’s a kind of non-linearity in the impact of contributions, so that twice as much money creates more than twice as much benefit. (The structure of my coordination game does this in extreme fashion by asserting that the lone contribution has zero benefit.)

So which is it? Is the real-world situation vis-à-vis the federal deficit more like a prisoner’s dilemma or a coordination game? On this question, I don’t have a strong opinion, but my instinct is that it’s more like the former. Why? Because I suspect there’s no real non-linearity in the impact of deficit reduction on social benefits. A $100 reduction in the deficit surely has a negligible impact on any macroeconomic variable, but it’s only negligible because $100 is not much money, not because $1000 is more than ten times as effective as $100. In other words, we shouldn’t confuse “small impact because of small contributions” with “small impact because of coordination failure.” From an altruistic utilitarian perspective, only the latter should affect your decision to contribute. However, since I’m not a macroeconomist, I’m open to the idea that there are non-linearities here that I’m not recognizing.

UPDATE: Arnold Kling makes essentially the same point about non-linearity; as he puts it, Will's position seems to require "some extreme 'lumpiness' of public goods."

agoraphilia.blogspot.com 

...It does seem to me, however, that there might be at least one public good that is suitably “lumpy” to make Wilkinson’s argument work. Suppose what you want from taxes is not just for the government to provide people with education, or medical care, or whatever. What you want, instead, is for us all as a society to chip in together to guarantee these goods. In other words, it’s not just what you buy with the taxes that you’re aiming at, it’s the fact that we’ve all bought these things together. If that’s Buffett’s goal, and maybe it is, then his giving money to government voluntarily isn’t going to move him any closer to it. Universal, coercive taxation seems like the only answer. But how attractive of a goal is that, really? Even if it has some attraction, it would seem a bit perverse to prioritize method by which aid is provided so far above the actual aid itself that you make your contribution contingent upon getting the method right. Government and the taxation used to finance it are, at best, a means for making people better off. They are not ends in themselves

bleedingheartlibertarians.com 

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From: TimF4/23/2012 12:43:01 PM
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Will Higher Tax Rates Balance the Budget?
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To: skinowski who wrote (5581)4/24/2012 4:49:36 PM
From: TimF1 Recommendation   of 7041
 
Are North Koreans really three inches shorter than South Koreans?
By Richard Knight BBC News

North Korea's recent failure to launch a long-range rocket was embarrassing for its new leader, Kim Jong-un. It was supposed to be a symbol of progress. Renewed media interest in North Korea since Kim Jong-un replaced his father has prompted the re-emergence of a claim which appears to be a symbol not of progress, but of relative decline: that North Koreans are much shorter than South Koreans.

The Independent reported last week that "nothing is small in North Korea apart from the people, who are on average three inches shorter than their cousins in the South".

This statistic, or versions of it, have been quoted for some time. In 2010 the late Christopher Hitchens put the difference at six inches in an article in Slate titled "A Nation of Racist Dwarfs".

Senator John McCain referred to a three-inch gap in a 2008 presidential debate.

So what's the truth? Professor Daniel Schwekendiek from Sungkyunkwan University in Seoul has studied the heights of North Korean refugees measured when they crossed the border into South Korea.

He says North Korean men are, on average, between 3 - 8cm (1.2 - 3.1in) shorter than their South Korean counterparts.


A difference is also obvious between North and South Korean children.

"The height gap is approximately 4cm (1.6in) among pre-school boys and 3cm (1.2in) among pre-school girls, and again the South Koreans would be taller."

Schwekendiek points out that the height difference cannot be attributed to genetics, because the two populations are the same.

"We're dealing with the Korean people," he says, "and Korea is interesting because it basically hasn't experienced any immigration for many centuries."

Martin Bloem is head of nutrition at the World Food Programme, which has been providing food aid to North Korea since 1995. He says poor diet in the early years of life leads to stunted growth.

"Food and what happens in the first two years of life is actually critical for people's height later," he says.


In the 1990s North Korea suffered a terrible famine. Today, according to the World Food Programme, "one in every three children remains chronically malnourished or 'stunted', meaning they are too short for their age".

South Korea, in contrast, has experienced rapid economic growth. Bloem says "economic growth is one of the main determinants of height improvement".

So while North Koreans have been getting shorter, South Koreans have been getting taller.


"If you look at older Koreans," says Schwekendiek, "we now see a situation where the average South Korean woman is approaching the height of the average North Korean man.

"This is to my knowledge a unique situation, where women become taller than men."

The secretive nature of North Korea makes it difficult to find reliable data for analysis.

Schwekendiek has studied refugees, but he rejects the notion that people driven to cross the border to South Korea are the most disadvantaged and therefore most likely to be stunted.

The refugees, he says, "come from all social strata and from all regions".

He has also studied data collected by the North Korean government and by international organisations working in North Korea, which he says support his findings.

It seems that this height statistic reveals a tragic fact - that as South Koreans have got richer and taller, North Korean children are being stunted by malnourishment.

bbc.co.uk 

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To: TimF who wrote (6182)4/24/2012 9:33:44 PM
From: skinowski1 Recommendation   of 7041
 
NK is very secretive and closed, but it does appear to be a rather terrible place. The elite lives like kings, but the majority exists in a survival mode.

Hunger, these days, is largely a side effect of big and/or bad government and crappy ideology.

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From: TimF4/26/2012 9:37:57 AM
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Strong Evidence from Academic Research: Speculation Has Not Driven High Oil, Gas Prices

Economics professor Lutz Killian, University of Michigan, has a research paper titled " The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?" co-authored with Bassam Fattouh and Lavan Mahadeva, here's the abstract (emphasis added):

"A popular view is that the surge in the price of oil during 2003-08 cannot be explained by economic fundamentals, but was caused by the increased financialization of oil futures markets, which in turn allowed speculation to become a major determinant of the spot price of oil. This interpretation has been driving policy efforts to regulate oil futures markets. This survey reviews the evidence supporting this view. We identify six strands in the literature corresponding to different empirical methodologies and discuss to what extent each approach sheds light on the role of speculation. We find that the existing evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003. Instead, there is strong evidence that the co-movement between spot and futures prices reflects common economic fundamentals rather than the financialization of oil futures markets."

Here's the conclusion from a related, slightly less academic article by Professor Killian on the same topic (emphasis added):

"It is sometimes suggested that academics have failed to adequately address the issue of speculation in oil markets and that more research is needed to establish what seems obvious to many policymakers. This is not the case. Rather, extensive research has produced a near-consensus among academic experts that speculation has not been a key driver of recent oil price fluctuations. This finding has important implication for on-going policy efforts to regulate oil futures markets."

And here's from a CNN editorial by Professor Kilian:

"The Obama administration is mistaken in attributing high oil and gas prices to the presence of financial investors in oil futures markets. A popular view among pundits and policymakers has been that the sustained oil price increase between 2003 and mid-2008 could not possibly be explained by economic fundamentals, but must have been brought about by financial investors taking speculative positions in oil futures markets. Recent research has not been kind to this hypothesis. A large number of scientific studies have failed to produce any credible evidence that high oil and gas prices were caused by the presence of financial investors in oil futures markets.

In fact, there are strong indications that recent oil price fluctuations were mainly associated with changes in the global business cycle. Notably, between 2003 and mid-2008, global demand for oil increased faster than global oil production, resulting in a sustained increase in the price of oil. Much of the additional demand for oil came from emerging Asia. No nefarious speculators are required to explain this surge in the price of oil. Indeed, oil futures prices responded to much the same economic forces as prices in the physical market."

Bottom Line: Market forces, not speculators, are the main determinants of oil prices and all other commodity prices.

mjperry.blogspot.com 

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From: TimF4/26/2012 6:37:08 PM
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Quote of the Day
March 21st, 2012 · 2 Comments ·
Critical Thinking, Economics

Stolen blatantly from Don Boudreaux:
The only true alternative to the marketplace is an institution that can use a greater measure of coercion than is available to participants in the marketplace.
– Harold Demsetz, From Economic Man to Economic System

By definition, the free market is the only economic system that involves no coercion (at least in the ideal).


Tags: Critical Thinking· economics· free markets

2 Comments so far ?
Maddog // Mar 21, 2012

It is in the elimination or at least reduction of coercion where government has a valid and active role in the market system. Gambling on “winners” or breathing Frankenstein like life into moldering corporate wrecks is not a valid role for government. Why is this so hard to understand?

Mark

Jeffrey Ellis // Mar 21, 2012

I think it’s hard to understand for people (i.e., leftists) who think government should be as “helpful” as possible — and are arrogant/ deluded about what government can do well.

thethinkerblog.com 

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From: TimF4/26/2012 6:38:26 PM
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Quote of the Day March 22nd, 2012
Critical Thinking, Demagoguery, Economics, Politics, Quotes
“If we want to improve the lot of Americans, we should stop fetishizing income inequality stats and start worrying about maximizing opportunities.”

Skeptical Libertarian, via Facebook
He was echoing the sentiments of Shikha Dalmia, who made the same point in this Boston Review op-ed.

thethinkerblog.com 

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